Vlad about to fall in the O's lap?

[Babypowder]

I would much rather Thome than Guerrero. We have enough free swingers as it is.

[TrappedinWV]

So would this be a good signing, if for nothing else we have Lee, Vlad, and Luke available at the trading deadline should it all go terribly wrong.

[Brendan25]

I have no interest. I think that Reimold can have a very solid season this year. I don't think that Vlad would put up better numbers then Reimold or Scott so I would rather have each of them in left and DH.

[sportsfan8703]

Vlad would put up better numbers for the O's than Reimold would for norfolk and if you don't believe that I have an autographed photo of Reimold I would like to sell to you. I'm tired of waiting for players like pie and riemold given multiple mlb seasons to prove themselves and still get a starting job handed to them. Let them fight for the an OF spot in spring training. In a 162 game mlb season they will be have the opportunity to "prove themselves" yet again. They aren't 22 or 23 year old rookies. They are 27 year olds. Hey staying healthy is part of the game. I'm just tired of waiting around for players that should develop. Obviously we are going to sink or swim with our young rotation, so therefore we need to have the best line-up, bullpen, and defense to support them. I mean I get the fascination with Pie, he is athletic as all get out. But he doesn't walk and doesn't steal bases and can't stay healthy. He is a 4th OF. Let's sign thome or vlad and see what the rotation can do.

[tyinmd5150]

I know that certain people on this board have pointed to Vlad's overall 2nd half performance as cause for concern because of his age. Many have suggested that he was wearing down and that was a sign of things to come this season. I just wanted to point out a couple things that may cause some to reconsider that stance:

In April Vlad put up the following numbers:

.333 BA, .464slg%, .851OPS, .338BAbip

In Sept/Oct

.311 BA, .491slg%, .841OPS, .305BAbip

The only month in which he was trully bad was July where he posted:

.210 BA, .340slg%, .622OPS, .212BAbip

When you dig into the numbers deeper, his so called second half decline appears to be more of a very bad July. That could have been attributed to any number of things, nagging injury, slow start after the break, or just a run-of-the-mill slump. Also, his BAbip would indicate that he was terribly unlucky during this time.

His last month and his first month are almost identical. I don't see how a quick look at his overall second half numbers without reviewing them in detail can act as some tell tale sign of upcoming dramatic decline.

Yes he is older. Yes he is no longer a viable option in the field. That is all true. He is ALSO an 8 time Silver Slugger(including 2010), a 9 time All-Star(including 2010), 12 times finished in the top 24 in MVP voting(all but one year 17th or higher -including last year - 11th) and winning in 2004.

I don't expect Vlad to put up the same numbers as he did last year....he will be a year older. However, I don't see his numbers falling off a cliff either. I think a reasonable expectation would be .290 BA, 20-25HR's and 85-100RBI's.

I would love to see him in an O's uniform in 2011. I don't think it will happen, but I would be very pleased if it did.

[Spy Fox]

I would much rather Thome than Guerrero. We have enough free swingers as it is.

Actually, out of our current starters, only Jones and Pie don't have good plate discipline, and if we sign Guerrero then Pie wouldn't be playing much anyway.

But if they do decide to sign a DH, I agree about Thome, because I think he'll be better this year than Guerrero.

[Osfan13]

I know that certain people on this board have pointed to Vlad's overall 2nd half performance as cause for concern because of his age. Many have suggested that he was wearing down and that was a sign of things to come this season. I just wanted to point out a couple things that may cause some to reconsider that stance:

In April Vlad put up the following numbers:

.333 BA, .464slg%, .851OPS, .338BAbip

In Sept/Oct

.311 BA, .491slg%, .841OPS, .305BAbip

The only month in which he was trully bad was July where he posted:

.210 BA, .340slg%, .622OPS, .212BAbip

When you dig into the numbers deeper, his so called second half decline appears to be more of a very bad July. That could have been attributed to any number of things, nagging injury, slow start after the break, or just a run-of-the-mill slump. Also, his BAbip would indicate that he was terribly unlucky during this time.

His last month and his first month are almost identical. I don't see how a quick look at his overall second half numbers without reviewing them in detail can act as some tell tale sign of upcoming dramatic decline.

Yes he is older. Yes he is no longer a viable option in the field. That is all true. He is ALSO an 8 time Silver Slugger(including 2010), a 9 time All-Star(including 2010), 12 times finished in the top 24 in MVP voting(all but one year 17th or higher -including last year - 11th) and winning in 2004.

I don't expect Vlad to put up the same numbers as he did last year....he will be a year older. However, I don't see his numbers falling off a cliff either. I think a reasonable expectation would be .290 BA, 20-25HR's and 85-100RBI's.

I would love to see him in an O's uniform in 2011. I don't think it will happen, but I would be very pleased if it did.

It's so easy to hear about a 2nd half slump and assume that it means a player is on the way out. Thanks for breaking it down.

I'd be happy with Vlad or Thome, although both are risks. Between the two, which would you prefer?

[El Gordo]

AM was just on XM and was asked about Vlad. He said he wouldn't rule it out. Luke could get more AB in LF. But he said economics make it unlikely, particularly when their priorities are still pitching.

[Going Underground]

I think the VLad thing has been gaining some speed. I think it has gone from 10% interest to 40%. Who knows what will happen. I think a lefty reliever might sign in the next few days. Biemel and Ohman are the two top choices. I am not sure if we wait till around Spring Training and trade for a starting pitcher or sign someone cheap. Pie and Lee have little health issues so we shall see.

[JTrea81]

I have no interest. I think that Reimold can have a very solid season this year. I don't think that Vlad would put up better numbers then Reimold or Scott so I would rather have each of them in left and DH.

You are kidding right?

Vlad would be the 2nd or 3rd best hitter on this club.

Reimold has proved nothing and probably needs some time in AAA to prove he can cut it there after his horrible season.

[Brendan25]

You are kidding right?

Vlad would be the 2nd or 3rd best hitter on this club.

Reimold has proved nothing and probably needs some time in AAA to prove he can cut it there after his horrible season.

Our lineup would be SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO slow

[tyinmd5150]

I'd be happy with Vlad or Thome, although both are risks. Between the two, which would you prefer?

I would also be happy with either. I would prefer Vlad, because I believe he will have more value at the trade deadline, and he is someone that we could pencil in at DH every day. Thome, however, I think would allow for more ML AB's for Pie and Reimold, as Reimold, could DH or play LF against tough lefties. Pie could still get the occasional start to rest Jones in center and to provide better defense in left on days when we have have our best starter on the mound or a pitcher with higher flyball tendencies. Pie would also still get plenty of time as a defensive replacement for Scott in LF. There are arguments to be made for both, and I would be happy with either as i think both would go a long way toward making this line up very respectable 1-9.

At this point in the offseason, I am very happy with the moves we have already made. I would like to see another lefty in the pen, and if we can acquire a solid (even if not spectacular) innings eating starting pitcher for the back of the rotation, I think we should will put a quality product on the field for the first time in a long while.

Vlad or Thome would just be the icing on the cake.

[Scrat1]

You are kidding right?

Considering Scott is three years younger and put up better numbers than Vlad just this past season, I don't know why he'd be kidding.

Reimold's another story, but in 2012 I'd put my money on Reimold putting up better numbers than Vlad, which is why I think it'd be a mistake to take at-bats from him in 2011.

[Frobby]

You are kidding right?

Why should he be kidding? It is all a matter of opinion. Is Vlad on the downslide, or isn't he? Will Reimold rebound, or won't he?

I posted elsewhere that the odds that Vlad will have a better OPS than Reimold are about 75%. I'd say his odds of having a better OPS than Scott are about 33%. In both cases, it is just my opinion.

Over on fangraphs, Bill James is shown as projecting .868 for Vlad, but the fan projection is .798. For Reimold, James says .804 (no fan poll). For Scott, James says .852, fans say .812. ZiPS says Guerrero .834, Scott .814, Reimold .753.

[Spy Fox]

Bingo. Even if Reimold has a bounceback season it's probably laughable to think he'd be as good as Vlad.

Well, let's see. What if Reimold does have a bounceback season, to approximately his 2009 levels? And on the other hand, what if Vlad reverts to the steady decline he was in before 2010?

2009:

Reimold: .279/15/45, .365/.466/.831 in 411 PAs

Vlad: .295/15/50, .334/.460/.794 in 407 PAs

Will Reimold be better than Vlad in 2011? Maybe not, because the 2010 numbers will tell a very different story than the one above. But it's hardly laughable.