Vlad about to fall in the O's lap?

[quidam]

In '09 Pie was worth 1.4 wins in only 281 PA, so how is it a "huge stretch" for him to ever be worth 2-3 wins?

I agree with your point about run support for our pitchers development, and with confidence for Wieters and Jones. I'm just not convinced that Vlad/Thome would be enough better than Reimold/Pie in that regard to make it worth it to throw away a year of playing time for the two of them.

Pie and Reimold would both get around 300 ab's even if we signed a veteran dh. And if trade one of Scott/Lee/Thome/etc. at the deadline then they both could easily get around 400 ab's.

[Dagger420]

Thome seems to be a much better hitter right now than Vlad or Damon.

Thome may be the best overall hitter available, but I think the team needs to be more balanced towards lefties. We already have a bunch of guys who are better suited towards rhp, which isn't too bad because most pitchers are righty, but if we have Thome, that means Scott has to play the field when we face righties, taking Pie out of the mix. If we have a righty we can do more of a time share or platoon with DH/LF and basically have .950ish OPS from the DH/LF slot no matter the pitcher, which would be nice against CC, for one. It would be complicated to get everybody their abs, but I figure if anybody can do it Buck can. With injuries and the long grind, its a real luxury to be that deep, but "will these guys ever come here?" is the question. I just think a righty might fit our needs in the lineup a bit better.

[El Gordo]

Right, we've got enough question marks in the lineup already. Why do we need to add one more?

Exactly Vlad's old, his legs are shot, he can't play the field, he looked overmatched the second half of last season. Under .750 OPS after the ASB. :mwahaha:

[GoldGlove21]

I have never been a big fan of running players out there to see what you have. I think everyone has a pretty good idea of what Reimold and Pie could be if both could stay healthy, but neither is guaranteed to stay healthy. Could either help this team as a 4th outfielder? Yes. Pie would have to be the guy with Reimold staying in the minors.

When given the chance to add another middle of the order bat at a low cost in terms of years, dollars and player development, I think you have to make the move. If we compare Vlad's WAR (2.6) to Pie/Reimold's combined WAR (-.1) from last year then we would get an additional 2.5 wins if all things were considered. Outside of that number there is the effect that adding Guerrero's bat to the lineup will have on other hitters.

Roberts

Markakis

Lee

Vlad

Reynolds

Scott

Jones

Wieters

Hardy

Everyone here can debate the benefit of adding a guy like Guerrero verses letting Reimold/Pie fill the void, but there is a benefit. If you were told this would be the Orioles 2011 lineup in 2009 would you have jumped all over it?

Is there a reason why Reimold, Pie, Fox/Tatum, and Itzturis couldn't be the bench? Could we go with a 12 man pitching staff?

Guthrie

Matusz

Bergesen

Arrieta

Tillman/Britton

VandenHurk

Erbe/Accardo/LeBron/Patton/Spoone/Rosario/Simon

Johnson

Berken

Gonzalez

Uehara

Gregg/FA

Gonzalez, Gregg, Uehara, and Johnson could give us our 7th, 8th, and 9th pitchers. Berken and VandenHurk would be capable of long relief. We could pick one of the relievers mentioned above for the 7th slot. Tillman or Britton would provide starting pitching depth and Erbe/Spoone/Patton could spot start of need be. Accardo can earn a position if need be.

By adding Vlad and a guy like Gregg we are talking about an additional $11M-$13M in additional team salaries in 2011? That is a risk I am willing to take to show the fan base that the team is doing the best it can to supplement the young talent with veteran players who put up good numbers. Do I think he accepts out offer? No. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't try.

[statman]

Exactly Vlad's old, his legs are shot, he can't play the field, he looked overmatched the second half of last season. Under .750 OPS after the ASB. :mwahaha:

People keep bringing that up...the man still finished hitting for a .300 AVG, 115 RBIs and 29 Home Runs. In fact, the only two seasons that Vlad HASN'T hit for at least a .841 OPS with at least 25 HRs were his rookie season and when he was hurt in 2009. How can you turn that down in your lineup? Do you really think the Reimold/Pie spot in the O's lineup can touch those numbers? I don't.

[El Gordo]

People keep bringing that up...the man still finished hitting for a .300 AVG, 115 RBIs and 29 Home Runs. In fact, the only two seasons that Vlad HASN'T hit for at least a .841 OPS with at least 27 HRs were his rookie season and when he was hurt in 2009. How can you turn that down in your lineup? Do you really think the Reimold/Pie spot in the O's lineup can touch those numbers? I don't.

Maybe they can't but I doubt Vlad can either. There was a reason the LAAA let him walk and there was a reason he went downhill fast the second half of last season, 278 .322 .426 .748. Vlad most likely is older than his "official" age. He looks done to me.

[Remember The Alomar]

People keep bringing that up...the man still finished hitting for a .300 AVG, 115 RBIs and 29 Home Runs. In fact, the only two seasons that Vlad HASN'T hit for at least a .841 OPS with at least 25 HRs were his rookie season and when he was hurt in 2009. How can you turn that down in your lineup? Do you really think the Reimold/Pie spot in the O's lineup can touch those numbers? I don't.

How does the fact that his overall numbers are good despite a poor second half mean anything? It's not a good thing--if anything, they hide the fact that he had a .748 OPS in the second half.

[statman]

How does the fact that his overall numbers are good despite a poor second half mean anything? It's not a good thing--if anything, they hide the fact that he had a .748 OPS in the second half.

I have news for you: his .748 second half OPS would have been slightly behind Adam Jones' .767 SEASON OPS. His .841 final OPS would have been second on our team; his .300 AVG would have been 1st, and his 27 HRs would have tied Luke Scott for the team lead. So he wasn't a runaway MVP candidate for a whole season...whoop de doo...not many people can maintain the numbers he was putting up. He still finished with stats that I would expect from an aging former-MVP...and those numbers would have been darn good for any lineup last year. I'd even bet you that the Reimold/Pie lineup spot doesn't break a season OPS of Vlad's second half .748.

[El Gordo]

I have news for you: his .748 second half OPS would have been slightly behind Adam Jones' .767 SEASON OPS. His .841 final OPS would have been second on our team; his .300 AVG would have been 1st, and his 27 HRs would have tied Luke Scott for the team lead. So he wasn't a runaway MVP candidate for a whole season...whoop de doo...not many people can maintain the numbers he was putting up. He still finished with stats that I would expect from an aging former-MVP...and those numbers would have been darn good for any lineup last year. I'd even bet you that the Reimold/Pie lineup spot doesn't break a season OPS of Vlad's second half .748.

You keep ignoring the facts that he's old and he ran out of gas the second half of the season. Suppose that is where he begins this year. Why isn't this a least as big a risk as seeing what Reimold and Pie can do. They won't cost us 5 MM and are just as likely to put up a 748 OPS.

[Remember The Alomar]

I have news for you: his .748 second half OPS would have been slightly behind Adam Jones' .767 SEASON OPS. His .841 final OPS would have been second on our team; his .300 AVG would have been 1st, and his 27 HRs would have tied Luke Scott for the team lead. So he wasn't a runaway MVP candidate for a whole season...whoop de doo...not many people can maintain the numbers he was putting up. He still finished with stats that I would expect from an aging former-MVP...and those numbers would have been darn good for any lineup last year. I'd even bet you that the Reimold/Pie lineup spot doesn't break a season OPS of Vlad's second half .748.

Why do you want to sign a 36 year old that, as you've admitted, stopped hitting half way through the year? He had a down year in 2009 as well. Why should we take a great half a year over a mediocre, to below average year and a half?

He also has absolutely no defensive value.

[wildcard]

There are a lot of good points in this thread. Here is what I get from the discussion.

1) Vlad is unlikely to produce for a full year in 2011. He hasn't for the last two years. He had a good 2nd half in 2009 (845 OPS) and a good 1st half in 2010 (918 OPS). That is what the O's would be buying if they signed him.

2) Vlad could be anywhere between 36 and 39 years old coming from the Dominican.

3) Vlad made 5.5M last year plus a 1M buyout on an option. There will probably be no option year this time so he is probably in the 5M or less range in salary.

4) Both Vlad and Thome should be considered parttime DHs at this point. Either may give the O's an offense boost if signed for some part of the year.

5) Pie could be the 4th OF on the roster.

6) Because Vlad or Thome are parttimers Reimold would probably see a half year of playing time if he covers the other half year.

7) It is yet to be determine if Reimold or Scott is the best leftfielder. Who ever loses that battle plays the other part year at DH.

8) With Fox as the backup catcher and infielder, there is the option to carry Reimold as the 25th man on the major league roster or he can be optioned to AAA to get more playing time. He can be optioned during the year as many times as needed. He has to stay in the minors for 10 days a then he can be recalled.

9) If Vlad would produce for a full year it would increase the possibility that Reimold would spend the whole year in the minors but Vlad's last two years of playing history does not make that seem likely.

[canonfaz]

Oh god, no — maybe the most overrated player in baseball. Always thought half of his batting average points should go to the mashers around him, and if you're forced to put him in the field, he now has a defensive range of about a foot and a half. He's not worth a resin bag or a fungo bat, much less any actual breathing players.

After looking up Young's stats, I have to agree with you. His numbers played really well when he was a shortstop, but his power numbers just are not what you expect from a corner infielder.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I can't imagine that anyone who actually saw Vlad play in the second half would be enthusiastic about signing him. He looked like he was finished to me. He has been a great player, and I would have loved to have him earlier, but there are too many signs that he is done as a productive player.

I wouldn't be opposed to adding a RH thumper at DH, but nobody out there really rings my bell. Reimold probably has as good a chance as anyone of giving 25 HR/.825. I'm also not going to be shocked if Snyder shows up in ST and makes a case, though I'm probably the last guy on this board who has him on the radar.

[wildcard]

I can't imagine that anyone who actually saw Vlad play in the second half would be enthusiastic about signing him. He looked like he was finished to me. He has been a great player, and I would have loved to have him earlier, but there are too many signs that he is done as a productive player.

I wouldn't be opposed to adding a RH thumper at DH, but nobody out there really rings my bell. Reimold probably has as good a chance as anyone of giving 25 HR/.825. I'm also not going to be shocked if Snyder shows up in ST and makes a case, though I'm probably the last guy on this board who has him on the radar.

I still consider Snyder a prospect. One with a lot to prove.

[Enjoy Terror]

Snyder is a first base prospect who can't hit for power, and hasn't shown he can since two years ago with Bowie. I'd be shocked... SHOCKED I say... if he cracks the 25-man in any capacity.