Jon Morosi: Orioles agree with Kevin Gregg

[AgentOrange]

They relate very poorly because the O's total includes that of middle relievers who are eligible for blown saves, but almost never actual saves. A good closer converts on 85% of his saves or more, while a team is almost always much lower.

So Gregg was a good closer last year?

[DrungoHazewood]

Wait a minute.....didn't you just jump on me for essentially typing THIS SENTENCE?!

Probably.

I'm still contending that this wasn't smart. But it's not mind-numbingly stupid, either. More like predictably, unimaginatively inefficient.

[Peace21]

So...

Mark Reynolds

Derrek Lee

JJ Hardy

Kevin Gregg

To go with the re-signing of Koji and Izturis, and minor deals such as Accardo and Rosario

And you have yourself a nice little off-season.

Find yourself a LH reliever, a RH bench bat and possibly a starter and :beerchug1:

I would love to see the O's improve on the minor deals. For example for guys such as Max Rameriz and Rapada.

[sangar]

Given the nature of our rotation a deep and strong bullpen is essential to having a successful season. It has been widely acknowledged that we will have to overpay to add quality FA talent. O's management is doing what they need to do and I'm glad to see they are not penny pinching and I hope to see them add Ohlman as well as one or two more.

[DrungoHazewood]

So Gregg was a good closer last year?

He wasn't terrible. He's just a random 1-win pitcher with a disturbing tendency to lose the strike zone and cough up a homer once every nine innings.

[DrungoHazewood]

I could kiss you on the lips right now, Jon Wilt.

I don't even know how to respond to that...

Think of how much better our organization would be right now if we had taken all the money spent on FA relievers over the last 5-6 years and invested in instead in international spending.

Like I said in the FA signings thread, these contracts will not tie a noose around your organization, but they show a poor assessment of value and risk/reward. Over time these decisions add up.

I guess the other side to this is that a more proper valuation of free agent relievers would be no guarantee of increased investment in other areas of the organization. So saving money on Gregg by signing a Saito or Kawakami or whomever probably wouldn't mean a similar plus-up on the international budget. It probably just would have gone somewhere else.

So, in a perfect world, I'd love to see the O's never sign a Kevin Gregg and instead budget $10M a year to international acquisitions. But as it is, Kevin Gregg is better than a $5M disbursement to the shareholders.

[Enjoy Terror]

It's not Gregg and exactly what I would do with $5M right now. It's the philosophy of taking $5M of the Orioles' limited pile of money and giving it to a player who's probably worth half of what he's being paid.

Every team has limited resources, besides the Yankees. Every time you go into a contract knowing there's little chance of it being optimally priced, you're wasting money that could buy other wins. The league generally pays $4.5M for a win in free agency. The O's just paid for about 2.5 wins from a pitcher who's been worth five in his entire eight-year career.

That's not as insanely stupid as some here say, but it's pretty darned inefficient for a team that has to be twice as efficient as the Yanks to stand a chance.

But that's not the issue at hand. The Orioles have plenty of money to go round to other things. They don't spend much, they only have three contracts of two years or more (Roberts, Markakis, Gonzo) and payroll was at a pretty low 60M last year. The Orioles not spending effectively in other channels such as scouting and development (as I said in the other thread) is a combination of greed and ignorance, and not a limited pile of money.

NOT signing Kevin Gregg wasn't all of the sudden going to allow us to give overslot draft money to some kid. The Orioles could spend in the draft if they really wanted to, they just choose not to, to their detriment.

[waroriole]

Apparently, there is no guarantee of a closer's job:

And there's an opportunity to close. Nothing's been given to him, but he's capable of pitching at the back end of games

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/01/greggs-agent-baltimore-for-kevin-has-a-lot-of-pluses.html

[scOtt]

It's not Gregg and exactly what I would do with $5M right now. It's the philosophy of taking $5M of the Orioles' limited pile of money and giving it to a player who's probably worth half of what he's being paid.

Every team has limited resources, besides the Yankees. Every time you go into a contract knowing there's little chance of it being optimally priced, you're wasting money that could buy other wins. The league generally pays $4.5M for a win in free agency. The O's just paid for about 2.5 wins from a pitcher who's been worth five in his entire eight-year career.

That's not as insanely stupid as some here say, but it's pretty darned inefficient for a team that has to be twice as efficient as the Yanks to stand a chance.

Just asking (almost in a vacuum) is any good reliever worth what they are being paid nowadays?

[DrungoHazewood]

But that's not the issue at hand. The Orioles have plenty of money to go round to other things. They don't spend much, they only have three contracts of two years or more (Roberts, Markakis, Gonzo) and payroll was at a pretty low 60M last year. The Orioles not spending effectively in other channels such as scouting and development (as I said in the other thread) is a combination of greed and ignorance, and not a limited pile of money.

NOT signing Kevin Gregg wasn't all of the sudden going to allow us to give overslot draft money to some kid. The Orioles could spend in the draft if they really wanted to, they just choose not to, to their detriment.

If you have $20k budgeted for a car, and you spend $20k on a car with a blue book value of $12k it's not going to keep you from eating or paying your rent. But it's still stupid, and it'll keep you from doing something. And maybe that something would have ended up being pretty cool.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just asking (almost in a vacuum) is any good reliever worth what they are being paid nowadays?

Sure, lots of them. Any closer who hasn't reached arbitration. In fact, lots of relievers who haven't reached arb. Mariano Rivera most years. Quite a few Japanese pitchers like Saito.

The issue is that most relievers don't pitch enough or in high enough leverage situations to be worth more than a win or two. And they pitch so few innings that they're really inconsistent. And a win in free agency is valued at about $4.5M. So if you're paying more than about $4.5M a year for any reliever you're probably overpaying.

Kevin Gregg just signed for $11M. That's 2.5 wins. According to Fangraphs he was worth 2.3 wins in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 combined.

[millertime]

Everyone admits that this team has to overpay to attract free agents, then complains when they do, even if it's only $1-2 (extra) over 2 years. The extra money really is a non-issue and barely a reason to nitpick the move. And, they could still sign other relief options to MiL contracts with invitations to camp, as well.

Excellent point. It simply amazes me sometimes how some people are just never satisfied. Most people on here say that we have to overpay in order to get a free agent to sign here and then when we do, they complain that we paid too much. Is Gregg worth the contract we gave him? Most likely not but who cares? We got a free agent that we had been targeting for months and improved our bullpen so let's just be happy about that. If it were a 2/$20 million deal, I could understand the displeasure but 2/$10 million is not the end of the world.

[JTrea81]

Apparently, there is no guarantee of a closer's job:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/01/greggs-agent-baltimore-for-kevin-has-a-lot-of-pluses.html

Of course, as you put the incentives there as the carrot and then force the player to earn them by outpitching the other guys to reach them.

[DrungoHazewood]

Of course, as you put the incentives there as the carrot and then force the player to earn them by outpitching the other guys to reach them.

Yep, very smart move by MacPhail.

[Stotle]

If you have $20k budgeted for a car, and you spend $20k on a car with a blue book value of $12k it's not going to keep you from eating or paying your rent. But it's still stupid, and it'll keep you from doing something. And maybe that something would have ended up being pretty cool.

Yeah, but if you blow that $8,000 by overpaying on the car you can still get your "cool thing" worth $8,000 through other avenues...

In Edmonton, Alberta, police are investigating a highly unusual crime: Burglars broke into a liquor store on New Year's and stole an $8,000 bottle of scotch.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-49041206.html