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Palmeiro just digging his grave deeper

accinfo

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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From the University of Hartford's athletics page: "Bagwell played at the University of Hartford from 1987-89, manning third base for the Hawks. When he left the program, he stood as the Hawks' all-time leader in average (.413), runs batted in (126) and homers (31). He remains atop the Hawks' leaderboard in average and slugging percentage (.713)."

Yet professional scouts did not think he would hit for power with a wood bat, which he didn't at all in the minors and his first few years in the majors.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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I realize this is a tough concept for some of you so let me see if I can explain it once again.

Hank Aaron, like Stan Musial, were fantastic major league ball players by 21-years old. Like other true HoF type guys, they were good right from an early age and they keep they're peak longer. Hank Aaron didn't go from a 8 home runs a year player to 35+ homer guy in a few years. He hit 27 homers at 21-years old and 44 at 23-years old.

He was a true HoF talent so his peak would almost certainly last longer than most players' core 27-32....

It's not a tough concept at all to me. Hank Aaron had a very odd last 5 or so years of his career, even considering his career up to that point. If one is going to use the type of reasoning you are, Aaron would come under suspicion for greatly bypassing anything he had done before in terms of HR's/PA during his age 37 season and then besting that at age 39 as well as the guilt by association argument.

While I do suspect he used steroids and know he tried greenies, I certainly wouldn't use the former to keep him out of the HOF even if I felt steroids should keep guys out.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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It's hard to know who did what, and I know you're only half-serious, but it should be noted that Aaron moved from Milwaukee to Atlanta (the launching pad) in 1966, his age 32 season. For that age 37 season, he hit 31 HR at home, 16 on the road. At 39, it was 24 at home, 16 on the road. Maybe there are other explanations, but it sure seems like home park is a big part of it.

EDIT: And in 1957 and 1963, when he hit 44 HR for Milwaukee, his home/road splits were 18/26 and 19/25. In 1962 it was 18/27. Who knows - if he'd played in that Atlanta stadium for his entire career, he might have hit 900 HR.

I'm totally serious. If anyone is going to question Bagwell or anyone else due to who they played with and by putting up weird numbers, Aaron should be questioned as well. Even with the favorable home field, his power numbers still went up a lot compared to his early ATL years and he has a teammate that claims he and many other teammates and competitors used steroids. His OPS+ also went up to the point where he beat his previous high by 13 at age 37. That factors in where he played. That's pretty unusual and the he was great earlier in his career doesn't make it any less suspicious imo because he an incredible standard to bypass, and that just doesn't happen much in one's late 30's.

I have no problem questing both, but I do have a problem basically declaring guilt for one or both, and I do have a problem acting like one is shady and the other isn't.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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I will say this, IF steroids did not have serious side effects, I would have no problems with them being legal and used throughout sports. Unfortunately, if you allow them, you basically force others to do something potential harmful to their bodies to compete at a high level.
Many drugs have serious side effects and almost any drug if misused has serious side effects. If steroids have been in baseball since the 70's and prevelant since the '80's, wouldn't we be seeing more ex ballplayers with serious side effects? Perhaps the ones we've heard of, like Caminetti, misused them.
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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Mark McQuire hit 49 homers his rookie year.
Another intersting factoid is that he led the league in average HR distance in 1999 with 418 feet. That doesn't seem like that much, but I don't know where to find average distances for players like Aaron, Mays, Williams, etc to compare.
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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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Many drugs have serious side effects and almost any drug if misused has serious side effects. If steroids have been in baseball since the 70's and prevelant since the '80's, wouldn't we be seeing more ex ballplayers with serious side effects? Perhaps the ones we've heard of, like Caminetti, misused them.

Yep. The negatives regarding most of the PED's used in baseball are far overblown imo.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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This is true, but that's the year where the ball was juiced. 49 homers is impressive no matter what, but several players set career highs in homers that year.

And the ball was juiced other times during the steroid era as well, which can partially explain some of the one year jumps in hr's.

Note that this isn't meant to disagree with you in anyway, just to add on.

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sangar All-Star

sangar

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Here's a link basically talking about what I was with Aaron:

http://grg51.typepad.com/steroid_nation/2007/02/hammerin_hank_a.html

If there is such a thing as damning circumstantial evidence this comes pretty close. Hank Aaron has his highest career HR rate at age 40, coincidentally the same year as teammates Davey Johnson and Darell Evans had Brady Anderson like spikes in their HR totals.

Kudos to mweb for well done research and a convincing argument.

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Bloopandablast Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bloopandablast

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If there is such a thing as damning circumstantial evidence this comes pretty close. Hank Aaron has his highest career HR rate at age 40, coincidentally the same year as teammates Davey Johnson and Darell Evans had Brady Anderson like spikes in their HR totals.

Kudos to mweb for well done research and a convincing argument.

Not in defense of Hammerin' Hank, since I am intrigued and had never considered this possibility, but in fairness it should also be pointed out those seasons came very soon after the mound was lowered and the "illistruous" Expo and Padre pitching staffs were added to the National League.

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