FuManchu
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Posts posted by FuManchu
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1 hour ago, atomic said:
They have to change the rules on draft order.
I don't know it would fix anything, but I thought it would be fun to have a draft for draft order. Teams' draft position in the following year wouldn't be determined by their own won loss record, but by the record of some other team they picked to own their slot after the next season. After the World Series the Tigers would have first pick of all the other teams, but couldn't pick themselves. If they picked Florida and the Marlins had the 5th worst record then the Tigers pick 5th no matter how good or bad they performed.
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17 hours ago, El Gordo said:
What's the difference between the # 1 and #3 picks? Worth demoralizing the players?
From the 1965 to 2012 draft its about a 9 WAR deference over a career in terms of the average and about 10 WAR difference over a career in terms of the median value. From 1990 to 2012 its about 16 and 12.5 respectively.
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Realistically there could be 18 shortstops and shortstopish players (like Machado and Villar) to hit 20 or more home runs this year. In 1983 there were two.
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If you use non-pitchers, BA <=200, and AB => 50, then the answer is at least 7. Sorry my subscription is up so I can't view the top 10 at the moment.
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Don Baylor went .327/22/107 at Rochester in 1970, then .313/20/95 at Rochester in 1971
Dany Clyburn was close to your criteria, he went .300/20/76 at Rochester in 1997, then .286/14/54 at Rochester in 1998 (363 at bats - he spent time in Baltimore in late August/September).
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25 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Thanks. I need to figure out how you get from the BaseballSavant home page to there.
In any event, though, Hit Probability is not the same as Catch Probability. HP is based on exit velocity and launch angle. Catch probability is based on the distance to be covered by the fielder and hang time.
1) Go here. Use the calendar to go to whatever date you are looking for and then select the game in question.
2) Yeah, I get that but I am not aware of any page that publishes CP% for individual plays. It may be out there somewhere but I have yet to find it. If you come across anything please let me know.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
Where do you find that?
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2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:
Also agreed. If anyone knows how, I'd be curious to learn the Statcast catch probability of the play. I know it's two basic inputs are hang time and distance traveled, and suspect that hang time/distance combo does probably result in a relatively high one, but I haven't learned baseballsavant well enough yet to see if it was 64% or 91%.
The baseballsavant site categorized the hit probability as 81%.
What Do the Orioles See in Shawn Armstrong?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
He's making the minimum and is just a seat warmer until the team around is better. I get the old "if ifs and buts" thing, but he had 4 outings with the Orioles where he gave up a total of 14 ERs - the other 50 innings here were collectively pitched to a 3.06 ERA. I don't know if its flukish or not, but he got LHB out pretty regularly, which can be interesting for a RHP.