Pheasants
-
Posts
432 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Pheasants
-
-
9 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
It wasn't a perfect measure. Yes, batting order has some impact on runs scored. Pinch running has some impact on the numbers. But a significant part of the rankings I presented were because of speed.
Here's another metric: in his career David Ortiz advanced an extra base on someone else's hit 25% of the time. This can be found on bb-ref's advanced batting stats under baserunning. Byron Buxton has advanced an extra base 66% of the time. Wellington Castillo takes an extra base 27% of the time, Jonathan Villar 55% of the time. Matt Wieters 23%, David Lough 55%. Billy Hamilton 55%, Prince Fielder 22%.
I like that one better. It's closely dependent on the speed rather than on the quality of the hitter behind the runner. On the other hand, I keep slapping myself to wake up after arguing with Drungo. I consider you the most knowledgeable person on this board.
-
2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
I made a list of everyone with 200 plate appearances last year. Then sorted by (basically) runs scored as a percentage of times on first base. (R-HR)/(H-2B-3B-HR+BB+HBP) if you want to know. It's not a perfect measure, but it's probably okay and it took three minutes.
Byron Buxton led the majors. Eight of the top 10 had 10 or more steals. Guys like Starling Marte and Kevin Pllar and Kevin Kiermaier and Billy Hamilton were in the top 20%. Along with a few weird outliers like Pablo Sandoval.
The bottom of the list was Wellington Castillo, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, Brian McCann. Four of the slowest players in the league.
If you look at Orioles it's Villar, Wilkerson, Mancini, Smith, Martin at the top, Davis, Ruiz, Severino, Nunez at the bottom.
You can over-do it, over-emphasize. You can end up in the nonsensical place baseball got in the 60s and 70s where Omar Moreno was leading off and making 600 outs a year. But clearly speed has an impact on runs scored.
Sorry, I won't buy this even though I'm on the pro-fast guy side. Because of tradition of having the fast guy at the top of the order or batting ninth, he's more likely to be followed by the better hitters in the lineup who drive him in. The slow guys like Castillo, Davis are more likely to be at the bottom of the good hitter group and thus followed by players who are less likely to follow their hit with another hit. If Castillo was batting 6th and followed by Davis and then another player batting .230 (I was going to use Ruiz, but Sunday he proved the exception), he's not likely to score, whereas an Alberto being followed by a Santandar and Iglesias (just using this year's averages) is more likely to score. It goes back to why OBP and SLG replaced the counting stats as the better measures of hitting.
-
1
-
1
-
-
With the streak, 10 home runs and 27 RBIs (both tied for the league lead with Abreu), he did not even get honorable mention in the first month MVP article of CBSsports--neither did Abreu.
-
7 hours ago, Frobby said:
As is his habit, Brandon Hyde waited until we were on the losing side of a blowout to debut a rookie pitcher. Tonight it was Keegan Akin’s turn, entering the game with the O’s losing 6-1.
Akin started with two scoreless innings, then allowed a solo homer in his third inning of work. If he’d stopped there, his line for the night would have looked pretty solid. But he allowed two base runners to start his fourth inning, both of whom scored after Hyde replaced Akin with Cody Carroll, who allowed both inherited runners to score while allowing four runs of his own to finish the inning.
Akin’s final line: 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR. His one strikeout came against another rookie making his major league debut, 20 year old Luis Garcia. Akin threw 48 pitches, 29 for strikes.
From what I saw, Akin is a very fast worker with good mound presence. His command was OK but not particularly good. He threw mostly fastballs and sliders. I only noticed one change-up, which he used to induce a soft fly out in his third inning of work. The fastball sat 90-92. The breaking pitch was kind of slurvy, but more slider than curve.
My overall impression is that he’s more likely to be a reliever than a starter. But, I’m not going to pronounce judgment based on a single appearance in a blowout game.
I thought Hyde tried too hard to get an extra inning out of Milone and then--possibly because we were so far behind--an extra inning out of Akin. If he had pulled Milone it still would have been a close game, and Milone did not look good enough the inning before to deserve another inning. For Akin, it would have been simply a matter of how well he felt about his outing.
-
5 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:
Not being a local person over there, I am not sure, but from what I gather, Davis is still hitting from Center to Left Field much of the time So he has lost the reflexes to identify a pitch quickly enough to turn on it and hit it with power to Rightfield. He appears to not be striking out as much so far, so that is an improvement. I am rooting for him to end his career with reasonably good seasons, if not up to a par of his really good Power Seasons.
We want him to to hit to Center to Left Field in order to not hit into the shift. If he has made a decision to swing slightly later, more power to him. In his best years, he had a lot of HRs to the opposite field. If the other team has to quit shifting, so much the better.
-
1
-
-
Tony, Are you keeping a stat sheet anywhere we can look. I was thinking this would not be very interesting since it just used old stats. We couldn't see if Davis really got better, etc., but I may get hooked.
-
7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:
He can't even catch up with a batting practice fastball?!?!?!?!?!
The more Davis goes oppo, the more I like it. In his best years he did it a lot; in his worst he tried to pull everything--right into the shift.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:
I think the economics of it has less to do with can we pay players, but more about do we need this many players.
Just for a loose analogy, you're a company and you employ 300 janitors, but only need 150 to clean the building. Meanwhile the janitor union says to you "hey, $7.50/hr isn't a living wage, you need to pay us $15!" So you're looking around and you're paying twice as many people as you need half as much as they should earn.
It's a no brainer; lay off 150 people and double salaries. Meanwhile, people are foaming at the mouth you didn't just double everyone's salary. But we don't need 300 janitors.
Like, layoffs happen in every organization, and it's happening daily. Players get cut all the time from teams; why does it matter if every team cuts 150 players all at once? This is truly the opposite of "the death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic". We literally don't care if one guy gets fired but do it in en mass? We need protests.
One of my points has been how do you know which of the 300 are going to develop into the best janitors and get to clean the major league locker rooms? The sooner you have to make that decision, the sooner you are likely to discard someone who could have been good. And the playing field for 18 or 21 year olds isn't even. For instance, people from northern states get less year-round opportunity. As you read the descriptions of draftees, you see words like raw more commonly used for northerners. Do we give them a chance to develop? I've seen high school soccer coaches who only want players who play all year on travel teams so they make the judgment of potential at 14 when really they are looking at training and experience (and no not everyone had the option of playing for travel teams; they cost money). Is that what baseball should be like? I'd rather see more possible players given the opportunity to develop with good coaching than to decide at 18 or 21 or 23 that this is all a player will ever be and discard him. Two years ago, how many people would have included Means in the throwaway pile?
-
18 hours ago, jarman86 said:
The economics part is a bunch of malarkey. 250 players assuming a $15k annual salary(both overestimates) is $3.75M. I don't believe it is current economic impact, but future. With the push to pay players a livable wage, will give MLB players more incentive to ask for more money. I think this is a negotiating tactic for 2021 negotiations, which coincidentally is when minor league contracts run out. And by getting Congress involved, it could help MLB owners get a better deal from MLBPA. Either way, it is about keeping around cheap labor for the owners.
You seem to be agreeing with me; $3.75 million is less that what the teams pay for a few players in the majors--it's less than for one! Paying 250 people a living wage, say $50,000, would be $12.5 million; still low compared to mlb salaries. I see no reason why a major league player would see that raise as a reason for them to ask for more money except maybe a few thousand more for the rookies coming up. A guy making 5 million a year should not be saying I deserve 5 million plus 50,000.
-
1
-
-
I was surprised to see McKenna ranked equally to Diaz and Hayes, especially the latter. He doe not seem to get the same respect here.
-
I grew up in Aberdeen, South Dakota. I saw Palmer, Watt, Etchebarren and Belanger before they were Orioles. I also saw Scruggs, Rathbun, Rouse and Mazzerelli, who never made it. I enjoyed them all. For 40 plus years now there has not been a farm club in Aberdeen. The nearest baseball is Minneapolis. So I would like more minor leagues, but I understand the economics (and Aberdeen I'm told was disliked by black players as an all white town). But I don't see a reason for cutting further, and I don't see the logic in assuming that someone coming out of college is all he is ever likely to be. Remember under the new scheme Toby Welk would never be drafted; yet he's looked good so far.
The major league teams spend less on their entire farm systems than they do on a few players in the majors. If they are losing money, it is not because of the minors but because of bad decisions elsewhere. Yet this is a "good" place to cut because the people who live near the big league stadium don't care, the major leaguers who run the union don't care, the media who cover the majors don't care, the owners can slip a few dollars in their pockets, and the people who do care can be labeled dreamers and mopers and unrealistic.
-
2
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:
So they'd be "helped" by being cut off, they never play pro ball, and are forced to get on with their lives a few years earlier?
Realism v. romanticism--no starving ball players, no starving artists, no starving writers, no place in the world for dreams. Either you are ready at 18-21 to amaze the world or you should go drive a truck. Only the elite get a chance to prove they belong in the superelite.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:
Here are the pitchers with any 10+ innings of AAA experience.
Barlow
Megill
Clay
Hill
Robinson
Clouse
Brown
Misiewicz
Thank you
-
I hate to complain about a fantastic effort, but I wish Luke had put age and the last level they were at with each player. For pitchers, I'm more interested in guys who were AAA so they can step in right away--McGill, Hill, Sharp. Maybe a AA guy. Infielders I'm OK with projects or ready players--Hernandez or Fermin would be possible. I would not look at an outfielder at all.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Pheasants said:
Batting .300 is not a guy who "only hit(s) home runs." You ignore half of the comment.
Sorry, I did not realize how old your comment was.
-
On 5/28/2019 at 5:30 PM, Philip said:
Trumbo hit 47 Homeruns, but his value only skyrocketed with us. The fact is most teams don’t want guys who only hit home runs anymore.
Batting .300 is not a guy who "only hit(s) home runs." You ignore half of the comment.
-
3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:
Being watchable for the next couple years with young interesting players, being competitive for at least 5 years after that. I don't care much about World Series wins. Baseball is a long season and playoffs are a crap shoot. I want to enjoy the season.
Total agreement.
-
If the draft had been down to the proposed 20 rounds, no one would have ever heard of him. I really have to root for guys likie him.
-
2
-
-
With Ynoa and Brooks gone, Hess is the left over long man.
-
1 hour ago, atomic said:
Major leagues definitely needs the minor leagues. Players don't go from college straight to MLB. Scrimmages are not going to make you major league ready. It would cost them even more money to have games without fans. Plus how much would it cost to shuttle players back and forth from Florida to say Detroit? I think you are truly under estimating the value minor league baseball provides to MLB.
I think this is all about the lawsuit from minor league players saying they are being paid below minimum wage. I guess a simpler solution is lower the amount of bonuses you pay drafted players and increase salaries. That would make the pay more equitable. And provide housing for the players. And cater their food.
It would not surprise me if a goal--and a result--is to increase the number of students going to college. Only expected stars would get drafted out of high school while MLB lets the colleges develop everyone else as is done in football and basketball. It would be bad for college academics and for the prospects who aren't really interested in being students, but that's no skin off the owners. About 80% of players would enter the minors at age 21 and get at most 3 years to make the majors or become AAAA.
-
On 11/15/2019 at 11:28 AM, weams said:
What makes you say that? The folks here are enlightened and do realize the facts of being one of the 850 MLB players.
Recently, there has been more concern for maintaining a higher on-base percentage even if it means not swinging for the fences every time up. OH seems to have accepted that you can't hit Earl Weaver specials (3-run home runs) with no one on base. The mere fact that McKenna is being criticized for changing to a power swing which hurt the rest of his game is a sign of enlightenment.
-
I keep wondering if he changed his swing on his own or if he was told by the coaches to try to hit for more power. I think anyone reading OH or other baseball writings over the last few years would believe that the only way to be a starter in the majors is to hit for power. That attitude finally began changing on OH within the last year, but most people still seem to be stuck on wanting a leadoff hitter who adds 20+ home runs. Did McKenna think he had to change?
-
1
-
-
Welk did so well this year, but Gunnar is considered the likely 3rd baseman of the future and makes the top 10 for Tony and Luke. What will Welk have to do to stay ahead (he was basically a level above) or get ahead (in the rankings)? Does he have a shot at the majors or is he likely to be only a throw in for a trade?
-
I saw Hayes at Norfolk steal second with a full slide and go home when the ball went into centerfield. He's fast.
O's @ Rays 8-26
in Game Threads
Posted
A question: What is the definition of an infield single? I had assumed it was a ball that the infielder could reach but couldn't throw the runner out at first. But in the first inning, Game Cast says Alberto hit an infield single and the right fielder made a fielding error. So is it just a ground ball that goes for a hit?