nadecir
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Posts posted by nadecir
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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I fully expect every team in every sport to at the very least push the borders when it comes to the legality of their actions.
To me cheating is cheating and what the Astros did is not worse than what the Red Sox did, what the Indians did or what the Phillies did.
Do you have an issue with Earl Weaver?
So you would be ok with it if the Orioles did exactly what the Astros did? I would not. How about I get a yes or no on that question?
Let's not discuss generalities. I certainly would have an issue with Earl Weaver if he was involved in exactly what the Astros did. -
1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
That is some hardcore goalpost moving.
Please answer my question.
So are you okay with the Orioles cheating like this? Or do you want someone in the organization to come clean and say something if the Orioles are undoubtedly cheating? -
5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm sorry did Fiers say something when he was with the Astros that I missed? From what I read I thought he kept his head down, did his job and collected his ring.
I'm pretty sure he waited until he was with a division rival before having a case of guilt.
At least Feirs had the guts to do it, even after leaving the Astros. I bet he wishes he would have spoken up earlier.
Justin Verlander admits he should have spoken up earlier.
"“It’s been difficult,” Verlander said Thursday at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. “Showing up in 2017. And once I spent some time there, understood what was happening. I didn’t — I wish I had said more. Looking back, I can’t go back. I can’t reverse my decision. I wish I had said more, and I didn’t, and for that I’m sorry.”
So are you okay with the Orioles cheating like this? Or do you want someone in the organization to come clean and say something if the Orioles are undoubtedly cheating? Everyone who knows about cheating and stays silent condones it.
How would you feel if you were a fan of the 2017 Dodgers instead of the Orioles? Other teams, players and fans paid a price for the Astros cheating. Without a whistleblower, this cheating would have continued. -
Thank God that Mike Fiers doesn't believe in this attitude. The Astros may have won more tainted World Series.
If the Orioles were doing or have done something like this, I would want someone in the organization to call them out publicly as soon as they knew. Whether it be an intern or a player, a whistleblower is one that has enough integrity to say I do not want to be involved in an organization that cheats no matter what happens to me. History shows time and time again that condoning cheating or other unethical behavior with silence can lead to some very bad consequences.
I do imagine that some Astros hitters will be keeping their heads down this season though. -
Given the Astros cheating, there are questions at this point of how much Elias' player analysis tactics are effective. The scandal taints everything and everyone involved involved with the Astros, along with their player development personnel and tactics.
I know Elias has said this: “But I have said, and I will say, that my role there was running the minor leagues, running the international scouting, running the draft,” Elias told Connolly. “And I was very focused on it. I’ll leave it at that.” That's not an answer to the question of whether Elias knew about the Astros cheating while he was there.
I am sure a reporter will ask Elias if he ever knew of "codebreaker" or the "dark arts" while with the Astros. It's pretty obvious that more Astros personnel knew about the cheating then have been named.
"The Houston Astros cheating scandal reportedly went well beyond banging on a trash can during home games and also was used on the road from 2017 through parts of the 2018 season. Details of Houston's "Codebreaker" program were revealed in a report by Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal on Friday that showed the extent of the team's cheating as well as the depths to which then-general manager Jeff Luhnow was involved.Accord to Diamond, Luhnow was approached by a team intern in 2016 with a presentation on an Excel-based application that could decode signs from opposing catchers. The program, named Codebreaker, was routinely referred to as the "Dark Arts" among Astros employees, per a previously undisclosed letter MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred sent to the team.
Manfred had called the cheating scandal "player-driven" in his report on the scheme. However, Diamond's report casts doubts on that notion, demonstrating Luhnow and the Astros analytics team were in on the efforts."
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2875319-astros-use-of-codebreaker-in-cheating-scandal-detailed-in-new-wsj-report
"Luhnow’s tenure in Houston was defined by an all-knowing front office where information was king, and the ability to place a value on every single aspect of the organization. The idea that he was unaware of such an elaborate scheme, if not intimately involved, is laughable, yet Luhnow’s official statement in response to his suspension and subsequent termination by the Astros was defiant, insisting “I am not a cheater” and “I did not know rules were being broken.”There’s reason for Elias to be confident that that connection will never be officially drawn. Major League Baseball has demonstrated they won’t pursue anything unless its feet are put to the fire. It took them two years to thoroughly investigate the Astros, and only then after a player (Mike Fiers) went on record to disclose the scheme. Manfred’s report went out of its way to avoid placing blame on the front office. Now we know that Houston’s front office was integrally involved, and it’s difficult to believe that MLB didn’t.
https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2020/2/13/21131563/astros-cheating-hubris-jim-crane-rob-manfred-mlb
My question is this. Would Angelos have even hired Elias if the extent of the Astros cheating scandal was publically known before Elias was hired? -
Boras said Altuve was shy. That's why he didn't want his jersey ripped off. Try another one Scott.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/01/houston-astros-cheating-buzzers-jose-altuve-shy-jersey-twitter
There certainly is a lot of smoke here.-
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16 minutes ago, Frobby said:
As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, (1) Gausman has done his best pitching in August and September, and (2) yesterday’s opponent, the Marlins, are the worst hitting team in the NL. Really, I don’t think we’ll know if Gausman turns any kind of a corner until all results from 2019 are in.
2016 - 2.83 ERA in August/September
2017 - 3.41 ERA in August/September
Who knows maybe the Braves discovered something with Gausman by having him pitch out of the stretch. Here's his splits in 2018:
in 2018 with bases empty:
K/9: 6.36 FIP: 5.30 HR/9: 1.9
In 2018 with baserunners:
K/9: 8.62 FIP: 3.27 HR/9: 0.72
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26 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:
Face it, Gausman was very talented, but at times, very inept and unable to locate the strike zone, which put a lot of balls in play, those that didnt clear the home run fence.. I doubt the 69 Orioles would have done that much more for him, given his issues.
The Braves have Gausman pitching out of the stretch for the entire game now. In the last two games, he's thrown 192 pitches - 133 for strikes with two good performances.
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On 5/14/2018 at 11:29 AM, Frobby said:
Per Fangraphs, Manny already has been worth $19.2 mm this season, compared to the $16 mm we’re paying him for the entire season.
You know what's crazy about this stat? Fangraphs has Manny at 2.4 WAR this season so far. However, the entire team total, including Manny, is 1.6 WAR for the position players. So the sum of all our position players without Manny is -0.8 WAR.
How bad would we be (and will be) without Manny?-
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25 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Curious, what are the comparable numbers for 2015/16?
SI posted a couple of good articles that suggested that Chris Davis would not be worth his contract during the time he was a free agent in late 2015- early 2016. At that time, they suggested he was might be in for a rapid decline due to low contact rates. The second article said that it would be unlikely he would be worth what the Orioles paid for him, but even their low-value projection looks rosy at this point.
QuoteDavis increased his walk rate every year he spent with Orioles, but his contact rates have actually gotten worse—from 69.1% in 2012 to 67.1 in '13 to 63.6 in his disappointing '14 campaign and an only slightly better 64.4 this past season. The question then becomes: If Davis is struggling to make contact now, when his bat speed is near its peak, what happens when his bat inevitably slows down with age? The answer is unlikely to be a gradual decline and more likely to be a quick collapse in his value akin to what we’ve seen from Ryan Howard...
https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/14/whats-he-really-worth-chris-davis-free-agent-value
QuoteTo correct for what would be an extreme outlier of a career path, I ran Davis through the system a second time, accelerating his decline. I did this not only because that career path seemed extremely unlikely, but because there was something about Davis’s game that gave me good reason to expect a more dramatic decline: his contact rates. Davis made contact with just 64.4% of the pitches he swung at in 2015 and his career contact rate is just 66%. None of the other nine men to hit 40 or more home runs in 2015 (Davis led the majors with 47) made contact less than 69% of the time they swung the bat last year. Fielder, the most free-swinging of the three stars Boras used as comparisons for Davis, made contact with 76% of the pitches at which he swung at prior to reaching free agency. My own search for a similar combination of big-time power and poor contract rates turned up a far more appropriate and alarming comparison for Davis: fellow big-money first baseman Ryan Howard, whose contact rate through his age-29 season was an identical 66%.
11QuoteHoward compiled 17.0 bWAR in his 20s, but has thus far been below replacement level in the aggregate in his thirties. He’s obviously an extreme example whose value is further undermined by his poor play in the field, which should be less of a problem for the comparatively slick-fielding Davis. Nonetheless, he serves as a loud reminder of how quickly things can go south for a hitter who struggles to make sufficient contact. At the age of 29, Howard hit .279/.360/.571 (141 OPS+) with 45 home runs, a contact rate of 66.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.5% (K/PA). Davis in 2015 hit .262/.361/.562 (146 OPS+) with 47 home runs, a contact rate of 64.4% and a strikeout rate of 31.0%.
Re-running Davis through the WHRW formula with an accelerated decline (subtracting 0.8 bWAR per season rather than 0.5 bWAR as in the initial projection) resulted in a maximum value of $107.2 million over six years with Davis dipping below replacement level in his age-36 season.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/16/baltimore-orioles-chris-davis-free-agency-new-contract
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Let's face facts.
- The Orioles have a couple of bad, expensive contracts with Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. There is a high likelihood these players' performance will decline further in the next few years.
- The Orioles also have some good players in their last contract years, see Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Zach Britton.
- The Orioles do not have a top-ranked farm system or a bunch of top-flite young major leaguers that can fill the many holes this year or in the next couple of years.
- The Orioles currently have a starting pitching rotation that has major questions at 3 of the 5 pieces.
- The Orioles operating budget will not rank in the top 5 in baseball in the near future.
- The Orioles best reliever is injured and will be out for an extended time period this season.
- The Orioles play in a division with some high spending teams in win-now mode. These teams have better major league rosters and in general, they have better young talent too.
It would take a miracle for the Orioles to compete in 2018, and expecting them to compete in the next couple of years beyond 2018 looks even less likely.
Given these facts, a rational baseball organization might make aggressive efforts to build for the future beyond this year. A good organization would move the current major league players they could for a bunch of low-level prospects who are not yet major league ready. They would invest in young players with some international signings. These organizations would seek out and covet top 5 draft picks. A rational organization would plan on sucking for a few years in order to build a team that could compete say, in the next 3 to 5 years. More than one baseball organization has proved successful at executing this type of long-term plan. And there are other baseball organizations attempting this type of "suck now so you can win later" plan this year.
The Orioles will likely suck this year. And the bad news is that it looks like the Orioles really suck at sucking. The good news is that there is still time for the Orioles to do the right thing this year and start building for the future.
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Poll: Grading Elias' Tenure Thus Far
in Orioles Talk
Posted
So I take it that you would be good with it if the Orioles cheated exactly the way the Astros cheated? I got it. I will just disagree and leave it at that.