Baltimoron
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Posts posted by Baltimoron
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Ok Tejada is listed as a minus 41 runs per 150. Even I don't think hes that bad. Am I reading it right?
I don't think so
Tejada, Miguel tejam001 6 1860 -12 3 -2 -9 708 -2-2 is Tejada's per 150 games average from 2003 through the first half of 07.
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A great primer for MLB player rules, covering topics like options, free agency, waivers, posting of Japanese players, minor league drafts and trades shows up
A well thought out and complete reference for a wide array of baseball statistics and statistical databases out together by Tom Tango can be found in this direction.
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A great run through of the current state of fielding metrics as well as a explanation of the fielding info available at THT.
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MGL's UZR from 2003 to 2007 (yes 2007 through May has been done).
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Unfortunately, Baseball Info Solutions decided not to release the +/- fielding system they published in The Fielding Bible last year. So no Fielding Bible.
Thankfully, the folks at The Hardball Times purchased detailed Zone Rating (the new Zone Rating that was behind the +/- system, not the Zone Rating available elsewhere, like ESPN) statistics from BIS. While they're not the same as the stats that were the highlight of the fielding bible, they're still very good: essentially they assign each fielder a zone (or rather, a set of zones) on the field and assess how many balls hit into that zone the fielder converts into outs. They also lists plays made out of zone. This has advantages over more traditional fielding stats like fielding percentage because it incorporates fielder range into the estimate of fielder quality in addition to his sure-handedness and ability to throw accurately. And it's better than range factor because it accounts for the number of balls a player had the opportunity to field, rather than just assuming that all players get the same number of chances at a given position.
Great explanation of this Zone Rating and how to use it by Seam Smith
Its a great resource, the best for fielding stats IMO.
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Some information about the accuracy of various projection systems in 2006 from Chone Smith:
HittersPECOTA .736 Shandler .702BIS .685 ZiPS .684Chone .677Marcel .664PitchersZiPS .459PECOTA .451BIS/James .445 (Bill James has nothing to do with these pitcher projections although its in his Handbook, he claims it can't be done)Marcel .432Chone .424Shandler .423Prior Year FIP .370Prior Year ERA .290
For hitters it is based on 114 players who had 500 or more AB, with a few eliminated (Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez among others) because not all systems projected minor leaguers.
For pitchers, the number represents the correlation coefficient between projected ERA and actual ERA for pitchers with 100 innings. Given the innings requirement pretty much excludes receivers, you can see how hard it is to predict pitchers.
General Pitcher projection testing
While there are sample size problems (with just 114 observations for hitters, one standard deviation is around .093 points of correlation), the results do suggest that each system is better than the one below it.
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Another park factor reference developed by USSPatriot by that uses, when available, 5 years of data and some regression to the mean. link
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Chone Smith's Zone rating adjustments
Basically, a large outfield wall (to a lesser extent a large outfield) can effect a players zone rating because balls that hit these walls or that fall into the extra outfield are "in-park" hits but are generally also balls that are not field able- think fly balls off the green monster or shots to deep power alleys in big parks like Coors.
RF in Camdem is pretty extreme, -0.036, while CF is somewhat less extreme, -.015. This is largely due to the the deep right center wall, which affects both CF and RF stats, and the scoreboard wall in Rf.
What this means is Camden makes the Zone Rating for a CF and a RF worse than it should be, by factors of -.015 for CF and -.036 for RF.
Worst ballpark outfield positions for ZR
Ballpark POS ZR adjustmentEnron LF -.045Fenway LF -.042Joe Robbie LF -.039PNC LF -.039PNC RF -.039Camden RF -.036Metrodome RF -.026Metrodome CF -.024PacBell RF -.022Ameriquest LF -.021
Best ball park outfield positions for ZR
Ballpark POS ZR adjustmentFenway RF .026Skydome LF .022Dodger LF .018PacBell LF .018BOB LF .017Comerica LF .017Turner RF .017Angel LF .016
BTW here is a thread that has a link to all of the 3 year park data (2004-2006) from the 2007 Bill James handbook. link
Super Stat Sticky: Get Your Learn On!
in MLB
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Tom Tango has a wiki page here.