Slappy
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Posts posted by Slappy
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'89, '12, and '22 are all pretty comparable. All of those teams had extremely low expectations coming off of multiple losing seasons in a row. All 3 had 2 things in common that were really key to turning things around: vastly improved defenses and shut-down bullpens. And all 3 featured the debut of players that would be key long-term contributors to the franchise: Olson in '89 (he pitched a little in '88 but not much), Machado in '12, Adley in '22.
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I don’t really trust Forbes’ numbers, but given our payroll decline it isn’t inconceivable. For a team that could be on the hook for legal settlements, shoring up the balance sheet isn’t the worst thing.
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I’m just amazed the OH found things to argue about in a thread that has almost unanimous support!
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What impresses me so far is the speed off the bat. These guys are not getting lucky rollers, these balls are getting smoked at 95+ over and over. I’ll be the first to admit that the Nats and Phils have awful bullpens but hey, these were supposed to be 2 contending teams.
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A little luck goes a long way in a 60 game season.
I’m trying to stay realistic, but these guys are legit hitting rockets. Young teams that mature at once surprise people, and some of these games are already starting to feel like 2012 games.
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How long before Waldo gets put in the stands?
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On 8/9/2020 at 10:36 AM, Can_of_corn said:
I think the team is bereft of ML talent and is merely playing reasonably well in a small sample size. If they somehow get to the playoffs they have no chance to win the WS.
Being negative is always easy, because there is no cost when you are wrong.
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The 60 game and extra playoff format is key, and turns small sample sizes into important details. All it takes is one good month and one .500-ish month and we are playing postseason ball. In a full season we’d be exposed but we’ve already faced the best pitchers on the two best teams in our division and are still standing...
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Hunter has been a loyal employee for a long time, and I'm glad the club kept him in some capacity. He would be perfect for things like emcee'ing opening day, or reunions, or season ticket holder dinners, whatever. But it was pretty clear that the fan base was not happy with his broadcasting performance, so they moved on. This is the kind of action we need to see from the Orioles - running it as a merit-based business, instead of an ole boys club.
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I really didn't start following the O's daily until '89. So in that context, the 90's and 10's are the main comparison.
90's for overall W/L were far better, Camden was the best ticket in baseball, and Ripken was the toast of baseball.
10's were probably more exciting, coming out of a long dormant period, some incredibly memorable games (Andino walk-off, Ripken statue game, Wild Card, Game #2 '12 ALDS, Delmon double), and being able to follow some sure fire future Orioles HOFers like Jones.
Overall, I can't complain too much about the 10's. We had our ups and downs for sure. But 3-4 playoff appearances a decade, i'll take that. Hopefully some of them end in a parade in the 20's.
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I wonder how much of our lag behind the Sox is drafting, and how much is player development?
Probably a little of both. Or a lot.
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Assuming Villar and/or Alberto are not traded, I think the infield is pretty much set except for 3B. Maybe they give Ruiz another year to develop there, maybe Alberto plays there (and Wilkerson at 2nd), or maybe Bannon surprises and grasps the position.
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The immediate and future value we received was far above the immediate and future value our trade partners received.
So, yes, DD did do pretty well with those trades, overall.
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47 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:
From the hitting side, there were improvements in every category, although some much larger than others. As a team, OPS+ was 91, slightly better than the 89 posted in 2018.
YR R HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2019 729 213 0.246 0.310 0.415 0.725
2018 622 188 0.239 0.298 0.391 0.689
2019-2018 107 25 0.007 0.012 0.024 0.036
For perspective, here's how those numbers stacked up against the rest of the league
YR R HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2019 11 12 12 12 12 13
2018 15 9 15 15 14 14
Last year, Machado led the team in HR (24) and RBI (65) even though he was gone after July. This year, Mancini, Nunez, and Villar all beat Manny's 2018 counting numbers (Villar tied him in HR). Trey's 135 OPS+ (14th in the league) was by far the team leader. Mancini's 35 HRs placed him 11th in the league, and 97 RBIs were good for 12th. Like Manny in 2018, Alberto was the only hitter on the team to surpass .300. Only 10 batters in the league hit .300 or better, with Alberto 8th in the league in BA.
Pitching, the biggest change was the decline of the bullpen. Only LAA's rotation was worse, while, the O's bullpen was dead last in ERA, 0.58 above 14th place KC.
YR Total SP BP
2019 5.59 5.57 5.63
2018 5.18 5.48 4.78
2019-2018 0.41 0.09 0.85Nice. Couple other interesting tidbits:
Walks:
2019: 12 (+40)
2018: 15
Strikeouts:
2019: 8 (+23 in a higher K environment)
2018: 12
The offense made some nice strides this year away from the Duquette/Showalter "swing for the streets" mentality. Still a long way to go, but it's an improvement, our best BB ranking since 2012 and our best K ranking since 2013. We also ranked 6th in the AL in stolen bases, something we haven't done since leading the league (!) in 2007.
Overall, we were just better at scoring a competitive number of runs this year. The times we scored 3 or fewer runs:
2019: 69 (8 shutouts)
2018: 93 (15)
(2014: 72 / 11)
There's no secret for this club. It needs to improve its pitching dramatically, and secondarily, improve the defense. We had a very good year in the minors with pitching, which is encouraging. I definitely think, despite another awful W-L year, the franchise is not in horrible shape going forward.
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Shutting the Door: The Fine Art of Holding a Lead - Orioles Bullpen
Sellout! The Logistics of Managing Enormous Crowds - Orioles Stadium Staff
Winning When It Counts - The Delmarva Shorebirds
Power Hitting In The Modern Age - Richie Martin
How To Win Friends and Influence People - B.J. Surhoff
Opportunity Knocks: How to Survive Changes In The Workplace - Former Orioles Scouting Department
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It’s hard to imagine a more definitive statement about the future of the team than this.
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Initially I thought this was a no-brainer for Alvarez. His OPS of over 1.100 is better than Mike Trout's, and Trout is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. If he had enough at bats, Alvarez would be leading the AL in OPS as a rookie. Almost unheard of.
On the other hand, Alvarez doesn't play defense, and his offense has been worth 3.9 WAR. John Means has been (far and away) the O's best starter as a rookie, and has earned a higher WAR (4.6, 9th in the AL for pitchers).
On the other hand, Alvarez can contribute almost every day, Means only every 5th day.
It's closer than I thought. I can see a case for either of them. But I think it goes to Alvarez based on the fact that Houston is a much better team with much better exposure.
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I'm interested to see how Elias positions his priorities this offseason. The most impactful things (long-term) that are going to happen are the player development and scouting hires, international facilities development, etc. I'm sure we will see a lot of those.
What I'm not sure about is how he sees the 2020 Orioles major league team. Clearly he's going to want guys like Montcastle, Hays, Kremer, maybe even Bannon to be in the majors at some point. He's not going to block those guys substantially. And he's going to see some of the step out pieces this year, like Santander, Alberto, Severino, Means, Harvey, etc., be major contributors.
What he can do is a better job of patching some of the real issues on this team. A few improved bullpen arms, a reasonable starter, and a passable middle infielder are within reach and would help get this team closer to 60+ wins. But does Elias care about that? I'm just not sure. He might take the Houston route and let the pot simmer until there is a major one-year improvement, then go all-in from there.
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I voted Mancini, but I was surprised that Santander didn't make the poll.
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18 minutes ago, accinfo said:
I agree here 100%. Once he got past August 1 it was obvious they weren't going to release him this year. They are going to give it another off season. Then I think they give him until around the time May 1st when someone like Mountcastle would be called up after his service time issues are gone. What will be interesting to watch is how much different Chris Davis's off-season's approach is. I guess he could change nothing and report to spring training and still collect his money. What is the player's obligation to work in the off season? Stay in shape, etc?
Since all money is guaranteed in MLB, there isn't much incentive outside of trying to be the best they can be.
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
Every AL East team’s win total as of today ends in “7.”
NYY - 97
TBR - 87
BOS - 77
TOR - 57
BAL - 47
On Friday the 13th no less
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6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Crazy theory time. First time I’ve been able to post via mobile without that glitch in days. Plus I really can’t pull the message board up at work after the infamous “Hangout is Porn” thread. That was a super great idea. So here’s my theory...
Buck back in 2021 as manager to start the year.
Hyde takes the all the losses. Elias realizes nobody else will take the job. Buck’s batteries are recharged and he wants to come back.
The Buck part is nuts, I do wonder though if Hyde ends up being "Bo Porter'd". Really difficult to evaluate Hyde, but I can't say his pitching strategies or our inability to avoid baserunning and defensive mistakes has impressed so far.
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On 8/11/2019 at 2:54 PM, atomic said:
I am just stating facts. I prefer to judge the GM on what they do. So far Elias hasn’t done anything to judge.
There's more to building an organization than just signing stop-gaps.
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I'm certainly not happy for anyone that lost their job, but I am happy that it appears that Elias is in full control and has full authority over the baseball operations, as was promised.
That has not been the case in Baltimore for a looooong time.
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No gas cans allowed
in Orioles Talk
Posted
The gas can is a promo waiting to happen.