Conway12
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Posts posted by Conway12
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4 minutes ago, Conway12 said:
He's got a "new" slider that Statcast calls a cutter. Andy Kostka had a good article on the subject.
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He's got a "new" slider that Statcast calls a cutter. Andy Kostka had a good article on the subject.
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32 minutes ago, 24fps said:
There aren't many narratives that are more satisfying to me than an underappreciated guy sticking it to all the doubters - the more relentlessly the better. O'Hearn got a last chance that objectively he didn't deserve and didn't squander it. I really respect that.
I don't know who Jacob Calvin Meyer is, but evidently he has a crystal ball that works. Might be a valuable dude to get to know.
He's a beat reporter for The Sun
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Three balls to deep center last night and a laser to the Left Fielder.
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
Kremer got 48 swings and 8 whiffs yesterday.
13 of those swings came on his splitter as well as 6 whiffs.
I knew Kremer had an inconsistent changeup. Has a replaced the change up with a splitter? This could be a game changing development.
My biggest takeaway as well. It's categorized as a splitter by Statcast. It is definitely a different pitch from his changeup. Has WAY lower spin, more vertical drop, and less horizontal movement. It's also a tad slower. I had no idea he was working on a Splitter. It's been his best pitch through 2 starts. Something to watch for sure.
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17 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’ve seen these kind of numbers, but I’m not really sure what “stabilize” really means in this context.
I have to dust off the old statistics class, so a lot of this may be wrong. But, in the Fangraphs glossary article they say that "stabilization" is when the R^2 of the variable crosses .49 to .50. Said another way, the variable (for example strikeout rate) "stabilizes" at a certain sample size (60 PA). In this case, "stabilize" means that the variable (Strikeout Rate) is at least 50 percent determined by the sample size (60 PA). So, going forward, you would expect the variable (Strikeout Rate) to not go 50% higher or lower than when it crosses that "stabilization" point (60 PA). For example, if after 60 PA you had a strikeout rate of 10% you would only expect it to go up or down 5% (or less) moving forward.
However, that is only if the sample (60 PA) is the exact same as the previous sample (60 PA), which of course it is not in baseball. Russel Carleton, the guy who popularized this stuff in baseball, has written on numerous occasions that his "stabilization point" was some what arbitrary and is used incorrectly nowadays to explain early season performances. He says it's really more like 150 PA to explain strikeout rate in a season to get to the "stabilization point." You should read the linked article and anything else he has written on the subject to understand it better. Here is quote from that article that I linked.
QuoteThe generally accepted "stability numbers" chart is a good chart for researchers who are doing retrospective research. I think it's also a good one to look at in terms of understanding which stats stabilize more quickly relative to others, which I think can show us some interesting truths about the game. However, I would kindly point out that they are not nearly as powerful in predicting future performance as people seem to believe that they are.
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"Webb looked like he was going nowhere after Kansas City drafted him out of high school, as he spent four years in rookie-level leagues. After the pandemic season, though, his fastball velocity took a big jump, to 95-97 mph, reaching triple digits. The pitch gets a lot of swings and misses up in the zone. Webb throws it most of the time, but also has a slider that sometimes generates swings and misses, and a change that needs a lot of work. The Royals added him to their 40-man roster after the 2021 season, but dropped him after an injury-plagued 2022 season. The Pirates signed him as a minor league free agent."
https://www.piratesprospects.com/nate-webb
Lots of K's, lots of walks.
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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Well of course job participation rates are up…when you get rid of jobs and put businesses out of work for multiple years and artificially push the market down, it’s pretty easy to make it look great again.
This measures the total population of prime age people and gives you a percentage of how many of them are working or looking for work. It has nothing to do with the available number of jobs.
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42 minutes ago, Otter said:
First, you can make your point without being insulting to those with a different opinion. Second, every jurisdiction is different with how their benefits are handed out and the amounts and qualifications for them. According to California's website, it shows that some COVID-era benefits are still being handed out. And even if benefits in your jurisdiction have gone back to pre-COVID levels, COVID did show many people that they can make similar amounts on public assistance than they can working low paying jobs. I'm very active in my local Chambers of Commerce, and know many business owners in many different industries and they all say the same thing. Since COVID they've had a very hard time hiring, re-hiring, or retaining low level employees, and the answer they get most often from these employees is they can make similar amounts on public assistance than they can in these low paying jobs. But I do agree the UBER-type jobs have also cut into the low-paying job market, even though I don't think it's the only reason. Sorry, I certainly don't want to get into a political discussion, but getting back to the original topic I think there are multiple reasons the service in OPACY is poor this year and it may be difficult to fix it in time for the playoffs.
I don't want to be insulting, political, or go away this much from baseball but this "nobody wants to work anymore" narrative just bothers me. The prime age labor participation rate is the highest it's been since the late 1990s which was when it was at it's peak.
The reason it is hard to find people is that there are fewer prime age workers (aging of the population) and those fewer works don't want crappy low level low paying jobs. Why don't people want those crappy low paying jobs? The answer is in the question.
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10 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:
Right time to try a new pitch too, with a 6 run lead. Wonder if that even contributed to them wanting to get him some work in a blowout. Based on the results tonight we should definitely be seeing more of it.
100% agree with this. He pitched completely differently last night and they had him warming up early in the game. I think they wanted to give him game action to try out some things. He only threw 2 sinkers and 1 changeup. 5 four seam fastballs and 9(!!) sliders. If he can keep that four seam up (and out) of the zone consistently it would definitely keep hitters from sitting on the sinker.
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47 minutes ago, Frobby said:
It’s worth noting that, having run through a gauntlet of pretty tough teams since this thread was started on July 10, the O’s now have only the 17th most difficult schedule remaining, with our upcoming opponents averaging a .497 winning percentage, down from .511 as of the OP. https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength
We’re still in the midst of a pretty tough stretch right now, though.
Easiest schedule remaining in the division as well.
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Michael Forret signed per Jim Callis. $450K, $300K against the bonus pool.
I couldn't figure out to embed tweets because I'm a dummy. But here's a link.
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8 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:
That's my question. Usually career numbers are stated as an average. Is this all his WARs combined?
Yes. It's all of his WAR combined. He averaged 2.3ish WAR for per season for 18 years.
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35 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
It’s hard to say the hip injury hasn’t affected him. Now may be the time to IL him and let him have some rehab ABs in AAA. We have too much depth this year to trot out banged up players. Injuries happen over 162. Let the guys heal up.
Maybe. Looking at the game logs, he missed two games, came back on 4/23 and was still hitting pretty well for the remainder of April. Including 2 more home runs. Maybe he aggravated it again at the end of April and we didn't hear about it. He really got cold once the calendar turned over to May.
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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Where were you able to find this? I was going to estimate it in the low-500’s just based on his general R/L discrepancy and how he’s done overall since May 1.
Anyway, I don’t think the team wouid ho out of its way to put Mateo in the lineup vs. LHP based on that information, though I guess if he’s still going to start sometimes, it makes more sense to do it vs. a LHP instead of a RHP. I’m almost afraid to ask how bad he’s been against RHP since May 1. I’d guess right around .300?
The Fangraphs Splits Tool is a little clunky, but once you figure out how to use it, it is great for stuff like this. I agree with you as well. Nothing about Mateo since about late-April would indicate to me that he needs to hit against anyone.
And you are right on it. Since May 1st his OPS against RHP is, not fit for human consumption, at .329.
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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:
What is his OPS vs lefties since May 1? I realize you don’t know the answer, but the Orioles do. I doubt it’s anything close to .771, given the general decline in his numbers.
His OPS vs. LHP since May 1st is .536.
Also, since he came out of the game for a hip injury on 4/19 his overall OPS is .492. Don't want to blame that since he didn't go on the IL and no one has mentioned it yet, thought it was semi-interesting considering they had Hays play all of last year with a beat up wrist.
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11 hours ago, Hallas said:
Fangraphs changed their formula to use OAA in 2022, and went back retroactively to recalculate WAR based on OAA for the years that the stat is available. OAA is grading Frazier pretty awfully, so that would explain why Fangraphs is not impressed with him.
This is the correct answer. I checked Fangraphs glossary yesterday to see what they used to calculate position player WAR and it still says they use UZR. But they have a blog post in 2022 about how they changed to OAA. I wished they updated their glossary. I use it a lot to figure out what the acronym of the day actually means.
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For what it's worth Baseball Prospectus has Frazier at 0.7 WARP or on pace for a 1.8 WARP season. So right in the middle of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.
I'd agree that Frazier being a 2.8 WAR player over the course of the year doesn't match what I am watching. Only wanted to see if someone knew something I didn't. Thanks for the replies.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Fangraphs has the better WAR because they account for park factors better and use the better/more reliable defensive stats.
Didn't think about the Park Factors. I also wonder if Defensive Value Stats are thrown off this year by the shift ban. Because he was 91st percentile last year in OAA and is 2nd percentile in OAA this year. Seems like that has to be shift ban for such a marked decrease. Not sure how UZR and DRS are handling the shift ban.
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3 minutes ago, interloper said:
Has to be something in the defensive metrics, right?
I thought that as well. But his DRS (which is what I always thought BRef used) is negative at 2B for the year and his UZR (which is what Fangraphs uses) is positive at 2B for the year. So I didn't think that was it.
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Does anyone know why according to Baseball Reference Adam Frazier has been worth 1.1 WAR (a 2.8 WAR pace over 162 games placing him into the category of a solid starter) but, according to Fangraphs he has been worth 0.3 WAR (a 0.7 WAR pace making him a scrub)? Fangraphs also has him rated as the worst qualifying second baseman in all of baseball.
I know that the two sites calculate WAR differently, but they usually are much closer in line to each other in my experience. Every other position player on the roster is within a couple of tenths of WAR between the two sites. Seems odd that Frazier has such a large discrepancy.
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I'll be there with a friend, LETS GO O's
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Not too much to be worried about people. I know people who have done the same thing. While incredibly stupid, probably not dangerous. Two depressants mixed probably means he just went to sleep and will feel very stupid tomorrow.....
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Jackson Holliday 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted