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CA-ORIOLE

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Posts posted by CA-ORIOLE

  1. Chen is a MOR pitcher and he's gonna get 15-20 million next year.

    Chen's "ceiling" is proven. Edrod may flame out and be not much of anything. I think he could be a decent pitcher, but nothing is guaranteed and I don't see anything special there. Certainly not like Arrieta in terms of stuff/upside.

  2. Which is?

    EdRod has been terrific in 7 of his 10 starts (0 runs twice, 1 run five times, 2 runs once) and horrific in the other three (6 runs or more). All in all, he's 5-3. If I'm the Red Sox I'm pretty happy about that ratio. We'll see if the ratio changes over the rest of the season.

    Well at least one of those 0-2 run games was against us and I wasn't that impressed. Like you said, we'll see how it goes. I think MOR pitcher ceiling is probably about right.

  3. In his 20s Nick had an ISO of 0.149, with a peak of 0.185. So far in his 30s it's 0.093 and falling. Power typically peaks in your late 20s/early 30s.

    I made a bb-ref query of players with an ISO between .125-175 in their 20s (min 1500 PAs, 1920-present). Then using that query as a starting point I looked up the lowest ISOs in their 30s. Only two players came back as having played enough to get 1500 PAs in their 30s with an ISO under .100: Orlando Cabrera and Darin Erstad. Both just under .100.

    That's odd, but there are some similarities if you ignore defense. Nick is the new Darin Erstad.

    It is pretty fascinating. He's hitting a lot more groundballs this year and spraying them everywhere.

  4. Nick finishes June with zero homeruns for the season. Still holding firm with a respectable 746 OPS and 389 OBP. rWAR sitting at an even 1 (fWAR slighly more favorable at 1.2) at almost the halfway point of the season. Nick has started in 76 of Atlanta's 77 games, including 1 game as DH.

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  5. Justin Turner this year.. wow.

    [table]

    [thead][tr][th]Year[/th][th]Age[/th][th]Tm[/th][th]Lg[/th][th]G[/th][th]PA[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]H[/th][th]2B[/th][th]3B[/th][th]HR[/th][th]RBI[/th][th]SB[/th][th]CS[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][th]OPS+[/th][th]TB[/th][th]GDP[/th][th]HBP[/th][th]SH[/th][th]SF[/th][th]IBB[/th][th]Pos[/th][th]Awards[/th][/tr][/thead]

    [tr][td]2015[/td][td]30[/td][td]LAD[/td][td]NL[/td][td]62[/td][td]182[/td][td]163[/td][td]26[/td][td]53[/td][td]12[/td][td]0[/td][td]9[/td][td]32[/td][td]1[/td][td]1[/td][td]14[/td][td]24[/td][td].325[/td][td].396[/td][td].564[/td][td].960[/td][td]165[/td][td]92[/td][td]4[/td][td]5[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]5/346[/td][td][/td][/tr]

    [/table]

    Yeah, Turner Crushed it last year too. He has really filled out and developed power. He looks like a Lumberjack up there with that big Red Beard. Always liked him.

  6. That lineup against a LHP is pretty rough. Still, looks like he got bombed today. Another great performance would have been more salt in the wound. So there's that.

    Yeah, reality eventually hits all of us. I know we didn't score any runs off him but I thought our hitters worked him fairly well when we played. He looks like he could be a very good pitcher but I don't see greatness there nor did I at anytime time we could not hit the guy.

  7. Nick finishes May with Zero homeruns. 731 OPS. 104 OPS+ and a near replacement 0.2 rWAR despite a still impressive 385 OBP. fWAR does hold him about a half win better (mostly in defensive value between DRS and UZR) .

  8. Nice OBP but that slugging is brutal.

    Have to wonder if he can maintain his walk rate.

    Can he keep fouling off "pitcher's pitches"? :scratchchinhmm:

    It is rather amazing that he is maintaining good production. He is not striking out and and slashing away at a 371 babip. 72 points higher than last year. Wee Willie Keeler would be proud.

  9. Could be. Nick has had his hot and cold spells so far this season, but lack of XBH has been a constant. I think it would be pretty much impossible to generate significant value with an ISO hovering between .30-.40. That said, it's one month into a four year deal, and he did not have a normal winter or spring training. So, we'll see.

    True, but my thinking was this would likely be the most valuable year of the 4. I've been watching him as I'm sure you have as well. He's just not driving the ball with any authority beyond the infield.

  10. I think it is more of a case of Hart getting it wrong.

    That too. I do wonder what other suitors were out there though. I think the Tigers had some interest if I'm not mistaken. Even at a discounted price this is starting to look pretty bad. Still early though I guess, but it doesn't look good at all.

  11. That would be the 2nd highest OBP of his career. Needless to say I don't think it's gonna hold up.

    It won't, that said I think he'll eventually hit a few homeruns and some more doubles than he has to this point and take that slugging up from .323 with a .030 ISO. Even with the high OBP (.386 today), Both Bref and Fangraphs are holding him at around replacement value right now. Small sample size warning but some of that is from below average defense and baserunning thrown in the mix.

    Looking more and more like Dan got this one right.

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