WalkWithElias
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Posts posted by WalkWithElias
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37 minutes ago, Philip said:
So if I understand correctly, our fourth round guy signed for more than our third-round round guy? Did I get that right?
Players drafted in later rounds sign for more money than those drafted before them on nearly every team, every year. So yes, you got that right.
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Under the rules for this year’s Draft, any undrafted player can now sign with any team, but for no more than $20,000. So it’s like a free-market system, but with a hard cap.
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If MLB and the union can't find an agreement and don't have a season this summer, do we default to the same draft order?
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14 minutes ago, SouthRider said:
I love this pick. This kid hits for average with elite power and is left handed. He also has a strong arm, loves the game, and appears to be a hard worker. Honestly, I don't see any negatives.
Negatives: Doesn't walk enough, limited to corner outfield, not named Austin Martin.
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5 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:
Who’s the top DH on the board?
Blaze Jordan or Bust
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1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:
Good lord, the overreaction theater here. You’d think we passed on a Harper or Strasburg level slam dunk. Spoilers: we didn’t. Everyone take a breath.
Don't you know that consensus draft order of online publications is the best predictor for major league success. You never see a guy drafted behind another guy ever become the better player. It never happens.
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https://arkansasrazorbacks.com/roster/heston-kjerstad/
https://www.mlb.com/news/heston-kjerstad-draft-prospect-arkansas
QuoteMLB.com
A 36th-round pick by the Mariners as a Texas high schooler in 2017, Kjerstad teamed with fellow top prospect Casey Martin to lead Arkansas to back-to-back College World Series appearances in their first two years of college. His 14 homers in 2018 broke the school freshman record of 13 set by eventual first-rounder Zack Cox in 2009, and Kjerstad encored with 17 as a sophomore. He offers the best left-handed power in the 2020 college class and only potential No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson has more pop among collegians. Kjerstad's strength and bat speed give him well above-average raw power to all fields. He has a complicated swing that features a big hand circle in his load, so he has to be precise with his timing to make it work -- but he has done so in college and was the top performer in the U.S. collegiate team's lineup last summer. He's an aggressive hitter who always will accumulate strikeouts as a tradeoff for his pop. Though Kjerstad records below-average running times out of the batter's box, he displays average speed once he gets going. He's not a threat on the bases but plays a capable right field. His huge power and solid arm strength fit the profile for the position.
QuoteFangraphs
TLDR
Prototypical college corner bat with plus raw power that looks like he'll hit enough to be an everyday guy. Played a lot of 1B in the fall but likely stays in RF this spring and in pro ball.Full Report
Kjerstad has performed against the best pitching in the country since he set foot on campus, and in 150 career games with Arkansas he hit .343/.421/.590, including a white hot .448/.513/.791 in 2020, during which Kjerstad hit in all sixteen games he played. He's kept his big, 6-foot-3 frame lean and speedy during that time, relevant for the corner-only prospect because Kjerstad puts a lot of balls in play down both baselines and runs well enough to turn them all into extra bases. He can drop the bat head and lift balls at his knees, and also get on top of pitches at the top of the zone. It's plus bat control on a somewhat odd-looking swing. If there are concerns about Kjerstad's cut, I'm not hearing them, they're drowned out by how well he's performed. He may have been about to have a year like J.J. Bleday's 2019 in which he clearly establishes himself as the most reliable tier 2 college hitter in the draft, and teams in the top 10 may view him as such.In Elias We Trust
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Austin Martin's number must be crazy is he's dropping now. I look forward to the reporting on this.
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Ah we got a professional scout here! I didn't know.
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3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:
The comments from Elias about Correa’s selection that I have seen always refer to him as being the “best player available.” He has even said that other teams had Correa at the top of their board as well. He happened to get a lesser deal, despite the fact that the Astros had him ranked #1 on their board. So, his recent comments do not cement anything in my mind about taking Martin or Torkelson. I believe what he says about taking who they think is the BPA. Whether it is the more common two, or Gonzalez or Veen.
I do not think, based on many comments around the industry, that they will not take a pitcher. Too much risk when there are is very good hitters available.
This is very important distinction. Whomever they take, Elias will say unequivocally that he believes they were the best player in the board.
I struggle to think anyone would justify Gonzalez being BPA ahead of Martin since Martin can seemingly do everything Gonzalez does with more defensive versatility and he did it at a higher level of competition. I could see an argument for Veen on pure, rose-colored glasses upside.
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13 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:
My thoughts as we get nearer to draft day--
I want Torkelson or Martin, being virtually split on who I favor. I'd be very happy to get either, though the odds greatly favor the Tigers taking Tork.
The rumors/chatter about Elias going underslot like he did in 2012 with Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers, have me concerned, yet not as adamantly against it as I've been.
I’m usually very against that strategy on principle but.... dang Correa and McCullers? I’d say it worked that time. Totally depends on the evaluation of the players considered. Looking at the 2012 draft, I remember Buxton being pretty clearly the consensus top guy and taking Correa was a gutsy pick.
I’m going to trust Elias no matter what, but I’d be much happier with Martin. Hopefully he’s seeing the Bregman comps, too.
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Any rumors that the Tigers aren’t taking Tork sounds like the usual smoke screens/negotiating tactics that happen the closer you get to draft day. In the end I think we’re picking between Martin, Lacy and Gonz.
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1 hour ago, wildcard said:
As I am sure you are aware there only two career .400 OBP currently playing in the MLB. Mike Trout and Joey Votto. Add Juan Soto in his first two years in the MLB. That is a total of three.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_on-base_percentage_leaders
So I do not think Austin Martin is likely to join them. Odds are against it.
College stats don't always translate, metal bat and all. Martin will probably be a good OBP hitter in the majors but probably not a .400 guy if history serves.
Well when people say his comp is Mookie freaking Betts, I think people are getting carried away with upside projections. I hope I look back at this post in 6 years and Martin has an MVP and multiple top 5 finishes.
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19 hours ago, BarclaySouthway said:
Maybe I'm in the minority, but Scott Garceau, while being plenty of affable, seems a little short on the insight and long on the cliche.
Have at me.
Not sure if he'll know what to do when he doesn't have his standard go-to move of "Hey Jeremy, make that one funny voice you do!" followed shortly by "That's so great. Jeremy, do that other funny voice you do!"
Glad to see Jeremy get his own show. Drive time is always much better when it's Jeremy and a fill-in because they can actually get into the topics rather than cover for the fact that Scott doesn't know anything more than what he's told or something that happened 20 years ago.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
Was this even a real question or concern? It was clear last year that the Orioles made the necessary change and it worked. Even Harvey said he enjoyed the new role and felt it worked for him.
With the number of guys the club is going to inevitably try to squeeze a handful of starts out of, just trying to get through the season 4-5 innings at a time, it is nice to hear we're going to commit to letting Harvey do what he does best: Throw Gas.
Had high hopes for him early but this is absolutely the right decision.
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Position flexibility + plate discipline + option years = Sure, why not?
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I wouldn’t assume that because Koby Perez has a Senior Director title, that means he runs the whole scouting department. If he did, I’d expect his title wouldn’t refer only to International Scouting. But it probably does indicate that he’s the highest paid guy in the department.
If this is true, that means Elias remains the de facto Scouting Director which isn't all that surprising.
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This feels like a sibling thread to "They All Break." The big takeaway here is it's really, really hard to find reliable starting pitching talent. Most pitchers aren't good or inconsistent at best.
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They still have that trophy, though.
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9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
With Castellanos still on the market I think there is no chance we traded Mancini, and should tell us what his value is to other teams. Even though I'm with the whole tear everything to the ground, which we're very close, I think at this point that Mancini is worth more to us than he would net us in a trade. Maybe that will be different come deadline time.
I don't see how the Givens market is "hot". We haven't heard any rumors regarding him other than that the Phils and Yanks were interested at last year's trade deadline. 6 weeks till pitchers report for ST. I don't think Givens is a good fit for us, because we'll use him more of a firestopper, than as a closer. That's not a great way to build value, unless he absolutely crushes it. He won't have too many easy innings.
Agreed on "hot" classification. I'd say things are "percolating" to flashback to a prior era. I expect Givens to get moved. Mancini I'm less sure of. It was one thing to deal Cashner for a few scratch-offs, but nobody in town had much attachment to him as a player. Not that ticket sales are great now, but trading Mancini for a couple C+ prospects would be a PR nightmare worse than what we'll already be seeing: "Orioles 2020: We Suck Again."
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I was going to send CoC a gift card for some of the leftover international signing money, but I couldn't find his address in the phone book under "Corn." Even looked for "O'Corn."
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31 minutes ago, atomic said:
Kept Bundy and Villar and traded Hall and Rodriquez for veteran pitchers.
We've reached the point of self parody.
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11 hours ago, Frobby said:
By the way, of the 36 players I listed, the following are free agents: Castro, Dozier, Gennett, Kipnis, Schoop, Zobrist, Gregorius and Iglesias. Cot’s lists another 23 players who are free agents at those positions. I think the large supply with not that many openings is a big reason the demand for Villar appears soft.
It makes sense for showing why Elias didn't want to pay $10m in arbitration for Villar, but we won't end up with a veteran free agent. It'll be some combination of Martin, Alberto, Wilkerson, and maybe another league minimum guy who may be Rule 5 or scrap heap pick up.
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1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:
Well, whatever you thought was an average starter ERA 5 years ago, you need to add 0.80 to that number. Even from a couple years ago, it's 0.50 higher. Add in lackluster defense and a friendly hitting environment.
Let's hope whichever team Elias is talking to is also looking at these stats. Back of the baseball card it looks like Bundy is a common, replaceable arm. When you say "54th ranked SP" makes it sound like he's a valuable asset. I guess we'll see with the return.
I'm curious which side is leaking this info.
Trade Bait 2020
in Orioles Talk
Posted
How much salary should Elias be willing to eat on Cobb to be able to get a decent prospect? Is it worth covering $5-7M of his 2021 contract if it means a higher quality return? Would that be enough?