DrungoHazewood

Exactly. I get the feeling Boswell's analytic baseball knowledge stopped growing about the time everyone decided Total Average just wasn't doing it for them, circa 1986.

I'm sure that's a much (actually infinitely) more likely story to have been written in the late 80s than "sometimes the difference between 5-10 and 9-0 is luck on batted balls, and run/defensive support".

And of course long after he left Baltimore he was involved in one of the great/infamous deadline deals of all time, when he was swapped for a pre-MLB debut John Smoltz. Alexander went 9-0 for the Tigers down the stretch*, helping them make the postseason where they were quickly dispatched by the Twins. And then he finished off his career with a couple more okay years in Detroit. But Smoltz spent almost his entire career on the dynastic Braves, putting together a HOF career worth ~80 fWAR. By fWAR the Tigers lost the trade 80-6. Or if you just count the six pre-free agency years of Smoltz' career it was more like 20-6. * Alexander was 5-10, 4.13 for the Braves, 9-0, 1.53 for the Tigers. But you could make the case that he really didn't pitch that much differently after the trade. His K and BB numbers actually got worse with the Tigers, but his BABIP went down 30 points and for whatever reason his homer rate fell off the side of the planet. At the time the story was written up as an almost heroic, gutty pitching performance leading the Tigers into the postseason.

That can't be the difference. He literally has had a 55 (!) run swing in his UZR/150 over the past three years. I wouldn't expect a 55-run swing if he'd shifted from LF to 3B. Lefthanded.

But it's also based on very poor defense combined with very good offense this year. Parra is an odd case. I really don't know what to think, except that I'm skeptical of someone who's offensive gains are all BABIP-related, and his defensive metrics have collapsed. But someone will probably look at the upside in both.

Does someone else believe that this isn't just a career year, but the new normal? The Orioles need to decide whether or not they can live with a 4/44 kind of deal for a guy who gives them a .740 OPS with so-so defense. They might because of the upside. Someone will almost certainly give him more than 2/16, that's paying for a little more than a win a year from a guy who's probably going to have been worth ~2 or more four of the last five years.

You kids and your oh-so-cool hipster ways!

Eddie. Liner to CF, diving catch by Robin Yount.

No, it wouldn't have been automatic.

On the other hand, there's the fact that the players and their agents are very much against QOs, the compensatory pick is enticing, and nobody is ever hamstrung by a one-year deal. Right now I wouldn't hesitate for a minute putting the QO on Wieters.

It's hard to tell. If they thought his defense was solid and his hitting spike sticky then maybe. But it's probably more murky than that. I really don't know what to think with the guy - I've barely seen him play, don't trust my subjective judgment at all, and his metrics are almost random.

No, no they don't. What I'm saying is they'd lose a pick if they didn't trade for Parra, the Brewers kept him and QO'd him, and then the O's signed Parra in the offseason. When a player is traded in midseason there's no option for a QO/compensatory pick.

Resigning him has little to do with the trade. There's no expectation of resigning him, and even if they did it would be at a value quite similar to what he'd get on the market in a few months. The only benefit I see is that they avoid a situation where the Brewers could have given him a QO and costing the O's a pick. So you could argue that they traded Davies for a) two months of Parra, b) the value of a compensatory draft pick ($7M?) and c) a few months of exclusive negotiation. But that's only if he's resigned - if he's not its just two months of Parra.

Be careful what you wish for. And remember, your new GM almost certainly won't come with a much bigger budget so he'll have to be more successful at exactly the things Duquette has been doing, and did quite well from '12-14.

Angelos should have traded him for a bunch of prospects to stock up the farm, and then signed a cheap GM more willing to do (insert their overarching plan that's totally different from Duquette's here).

I'm not going to argue too much, it's not like we just replaced Deivi Cruz with Cal Ripken. But Snider's somewhat similar numbers are in platoon/part time roles, Lough isn't nearly the hitter and has about as many career PAs as Parra did in 2013, and Reimold was last healthy in the 1940s. Parra has been more-or-less an everyday player since 2009.

Nothing? You think Parra is no better than the Orioles' current corner outfielders?

I said the same thing about a much older Nelson Cruz and people looked at me like I had snakes protruding from various holes in my skull.

Not likely. But the difference between the wildcard and no wildcard is likely a game or two in the standings. Parra may well be worth a couple wins over Snider, Reimold, etc. Of course there's an untold number of interdependent variables here, so it's impossible to assign direct credit and blame for the players on teams around that wildcard threshold.

If a guy has an established level of hitting .275 but he's hot and has hit .325 for the last two months his best projection going forward is a lot closer to .275 than .325.

I think all you're being asked to believe is that this is an upgrade over Travis Snider and Nolan Reimold for a middling pitching prospect.

Who cares when you sign him? All this does is get you out of the competitive bidding process, if he's willing to forgo getting out of that process. There's no guarantee the negotiating window gets you anything at all. If he wants to test the waters he'll test the waters, unless you blow him out of the water. Very little value in the trade beyond the production over the next two months.

Also, disappointed in the lack of a "waffling middle ground" option in the poll.

Completely disagree. You've traded for two months of him, plus a negotiating window. I wouldn't pay $50 and a goat for the window.