DrungoHazewood

Yea, it was nice for fans to pretend that players who didn't have any choice in where they played or for how much were always happy guys. I think the players should give up free agency the moment when the general population is subject to a draft. If you're an engineer and you graduate from college you might get drafted by a crappy company in Des Moines. If you don't like Des Moines, screw you. Go live in a different country. You'll work where the company wants you to work. Choice is for losers.

You do understand that if the owners tried to lock out the players until they agreed to return to the conditions of 1965 the players would eventually form their own league. The MLBPA wouldn't agree to those conditions ever. And the players would win, because the fans want to watch the good players, not the really cheap players. If you want really cheap players there's the Atlantic League. Going back to a reserve clause and owner-chosen salaries is about as likely as the Sultan of Brunei buying the Orioles and spending $750M on payroll. Actually I think the Sultan thing is more likely.

For 100+ years there's been a battle between tradition (real men complete games) and the increasingly undeniable fact that essentially all pitchers pitch better in shorter outings. Pitcher usage has never reached a stable point because we started out in a completely inefficient pattern (complete games everywhere!) and we haven't yet reached the limits of spreading max effort out over a 25-man roster. What interests me is whether/when we'll transition to a model where the Sherzers and Kershaws have 60 starts and 140 innings a year, with 2015 Zach Britton-type numbers. The best pitchers will be a late-70s Goose Gossage with a more consistent use framework. And then, do you use them to start, or to pitch the last three innings of close games?

Means' K rate is 7.5, league is 8.8. His walk rate is 2.4, league is 3.3. His HR rate is 1.0, league is 1.4. His FIP is 3.96, league is 4.48. His BABIP is .253, league is .297. He's a little better than league walks and homers, a little worse in Ks, and way better in BABIP. BABIP isn't a part of FIP.

In 2018 57 pitchers qualified for the ERA title. Or just under two per team. That's off from 88 in 2014. The last time we saw fewer than 57 was in 1960, when there were only 16 MLB teams. Pitcher use is constantly evolving, but if current trends continue we could see a time where only 20-30 pitchers qualify for the title. Last year 183 pitchers made 10 or more starts, so 31% qualified for the ERA title. Last year Chris Sale had a 6.8 rWAR season and didn't qualify for the ERA title.

There are pluses and minuses to making MLB more like other North American sports. There's an argument that the lower percentage of revenues is because of MLB's vast minor league systems, which leads me to wonder if having vast minor league systems make sense. The shared TV revenue seems like a good idea, but many teams have established long-term agreements that are of great benefit to them; you would have to convince them to give up massive amounts of revenue, with a hit to their bottom line and franchise values. A hard cap and a floor sometimes sounds good, but the cap would probably be high enough so that it only impacts a few teams, and a floor keeps the O's from really doing an accelerated rebuild. A floor basically forces them to an atomic-style rebuild, where they sign Kevin Millars and Jay Paytons every offseason to meet the floor number. I'm not against earlier free agency. What I really like is how I understand the NHL does it - you're a free agent at 28. Or 27 or something. None of this stuff where a guy doesn't get established until he's in his late 20s and is basically retired before he hits free agency. I really don't get the appeal of eliminating long contracts. Contracts will be loosely based on market value. If you say that no contract can be more than five years you're basically telling everyone the average annual value has to go up. Instead of Harper signing a 10-330 deal, he'd sign a 5/250 deal. And this might eliminate the deferred money that helps smaller market teams afford big deals. Capping contract lengths is just a way to keep owners from going overboard. An alternate solution would be to have owners and management make better decisions.

Yes, it's vastly easier to keep a group of guys together when management has complete and total say over how long a player is on the team. Owners usually had no qualms over giving a player a significant pay cut for perceived lack of production, or releasing or trading him after many years on the team. Did anyone ask Frank if he wanted to go to Baltimore after 13 years in the Reds' organization? Of course not, he's a ballplayer, he does what he's told or he can go dig ditches. Never mind that he and his family were long-established in the Cincinnati community and his excellent play sold hundreds of thousands if not millions of tickets. He should take his $57,000 a year and like it.

Because of the time value of money deferring some to points far in the future makes the present value less. I remember doing some math when the Davis deal was signed, and because of the deferred money its value was the equivalent of a straight seven-year deal worth $130M instead of $160M, or something like that. I'm sure that was part of the appeal of the Bobby Bonilla deal, too. People are all "haha the Mets are still paying a guy who retired 20 years ago, suckers!" When it's really "haha, the Mets could have paid Bonilla all the money up front, but they saved probably tens of millions by keeping most of it and doling it out a (relative) little at a time forever."

I'll tell you what I tell my kids... if you're bored, we'll find you some work to do.

I was under the impression that the NFL has a hard cap, and also players who make more than any Major Leaguer by quite a bit. The best way to keep a $10B industry from paying its employees as much as 42% of revenues would be to starve it. We should all boycott MLB. That'll show 'em. Even if you really believe that the world is better off with ballplayers making 5%, 10% (?) of revenues. We're never going back there. MLB players pull in a smaller percentage of revenues than any other major US sport. If anything the next CBA will see that go up. I'll pay to watch good baseball players. I'd be less inclined to pay $30 a ticket to see the Angelos boys lighting cigars with $100 bills.

I responded there.

This is my worry with Mountcastle. There are a very few players who can be productive at the major league level striking out seven times for each walk. Many more who can't. Mancini had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio in the minors. Mountcastle is 4:1 or worse, and it's not improving. It is a positive that he's fairly young. He's 22. That's the most important thing in a prospect. I'm reasonably confident he'll make some significant strides by the time Mancini hit AAA (24). But... lack of plate discipline can derail players. Cory Snyder had Mountcastle's plate discipline and power (actually better plate discipline in the minors), was in the majors at 23, was a better fielder with an epic arm, and ended up with a fairly disappointing career. When you have 17 walks you have to hit .290 or your OBP is going to be a drag. Jonathan Schoop is a another example - when he hits .230 he's an out-making machine. I hope Mountcastle grows some discipline, or has a little Vlad in him.

Most of the guys at Norfolk are older, most have more experience at AAA and the majors. None or almost none of them have a 7:1 K:BB ratio. And almost none of them have good odds of being on the 2022 Orioles. There is no reason to rush Mountcastle. September is probably okay. But he'll likely be back at AAA for at least part of next year. Mountcastle's AAA performance to date is probably a .700 OPS in the majors- the International League OPS is almost .800, and the average AAA guy is not a major leaguer. A fair amount of growth is necessary for Mountcastle to be a productive major leaguer at LF/1B/DH.

I thought someone mentioned that Smith has a career minor league OPS of .750. Often those things go down in the majors.

He didn't say anything about quality. Just "bodies". Although I'm not sure why a MLB GM gets a gold star for the ability to acquire 30-year-old journeymen AAA pitchers for spare change.

He has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio in AAA. Literally worse than Chris Davis' K:BB ratio in the majors. And in the old days an .831 in Norfolk was a big thing. With the new ball this year it's 100 points behind Chance Sisco and almost 200 behind DJ Stewart. He still has a few things to work on.

I wonder about that in any sport. You have 16 year olds who are 6' 200 lbs and have been shaving for three years. Then you have 16 year olds who are barely in puberty and are 5' 4", 120. You draft the guy who hit his growth spurt at 13 and has been dominating kids who're physically inferior. But does that mean he's going to better than the late bloomer at 19 or 25?

I don't know the answers to most of these questions, but I think the passage I bolded is EXACTLY what happens. "Luis, bienvenido a la organización. Aquí está su boleto de autobús a Elizabethton, Tennessee. ¡Buena suerte!"

Interesting. I never heard that. I know the pre-draft days were a little wild west. Not too different from today - the arguments for the draft were mostly about keeping costs down, hidden behind how it was all for competitive balance.

Yes, of course. When he met with the Yanks he just felt that they provided more of a positive family atmosphere than the other teams. He was assured that he can continue grow as a person, to learn, to contribute to the community, to practice his faith. That what Yankee beisbol is all about. The massive trucks full of cash were an afterthought to the kid from the country with the $14,000 per capita GDP.

What he cared about was $5.1M. His entire family can live like royalty for the rest of their lives even if he goes all Brien Taylor.

It's absolutely true that Brooks Robinson says he signed with the O's in the mid-50s because they were not deep and they were not good, and so they offered a direct path to the majors.

That's why they make the internet.

That's why they signed. Luis Ortiz is now the 8th-best starter in the organization. On the Yanks his ETA would be 2026. With the O's it's a week from Friday.

Chris Waters had a 5.79 ERA in Norfolk, got called up because it was his turn in the rotation and the O's second choice to start that day was Ty Wigginton. Outside of his first eight-inning, one-hit start his career ERA in the majors was 6.45. This year's Chris Waters is Jimmy Yacabonis.