DrungoHazewood
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Everything posted by DrungoHazewood
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Not likely. But the difference between the wildcard and no wildcard is likely a game or two in the standings. Parra may well be worth a couple wins over Snider, Reimold, etc. Of course there's an untold number of interdependent variables here, so it's impossible to assign direct credit and blame for the players on teams around that wildcard threshold.
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If a guy has an established level of hitting .275 but he's hot and has hit .325 for the last two months his best projection going forward is a lot closer to .275 than .325.
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I think all you're being asked to believe is that this is an upgrade over Travis Snider and Nolan Reimold for a middling pitching prospect.
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Who cares when you sign him? All this does is get you out of the competitive bidding process, if he's willing to forgo getting out of that process. There's no guarantee the negotiating window gets you anything at all. If he wants to test the waters he'll test the waters, unless you blow him out of the water. Very little value in the trade beyond the production over the next two months.
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Also, disappointed in the lack of a "waffling middle ground" option in the poll.
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Completely disagree. You've traded for two months of him, plus a negotiating window. I wouldn't pay $50 and a goat for the window.
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Monthly splits generally have no predictive value. It is true that he's not likely to be a .880 guy from now on.
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This is a Duquette kind of trade. A moderately talented, moderately-projected prospect for a pretty good short-term guy. Not a fan of rentals. There is risk here. Parra is not going to guarantee a playoff spot in any way. But in the end it's probably a trade of a couple wins for a guy who's not going to be an impact talent in the majors. Probably. Interested if they want to try to resign Parra, but that really has no impact on the trade.
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Of course that helps, but it's not a requirement. The Orioles model requires that most of the value in the team come from pre-free agency players. But not all, or they would never have signed Ubaldo. I seriously doubt that Duquette thought that Ubaldo was going to be a huge $/win value.
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Random aside... people often lament the effect free agency has had on baseball, with the departure of favorites like Nick over money and long-term commitments. What do you think it would take for the owners to buy free agency out of the next CBA? Guaranteeing the players 60% of league revenues? Setting a salary floor of $75M with no ceiling? Minimum salary of $5M? There has to be some carrot large enough to reinstate the reserve clause.
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I would suffer indignities of the highest order for all-you-can-eat poutine. The smoked meat poutine I had at Les Deux Richard in Sainte-Agathe-des-Monts last month was pure bliss. I had thoughts of annexing Quebec on the spot, or at least throwing it all away to become a Quebecois separatist.
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In his 20s Nick had an ISO of 0.149, with a peak of 0.185. So far in his 30s it's 0.093 and falling. Power typically peaks in your late 20s/early 30s. I made a bb-ref query of players with an ISO between .125-175 in their 20s (min 1500 PAs, 1920-present). Then using that query as a starting point I looked up the lowest ISOs in their 30s. Only two players came back as having played enough to get 1500 PAs in their 30s with an ISO under .100: Orlando Cabrera and Darin Erstad. Both just under .100. That's odd, but there are some similarities if you ignore defense. Nick is the new Darin Erstad.
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The "Win (ANOTHER) Five in A Row" and get back in it - Thread
DrungoHazewood replied to weams's topic in Orioles Talk
Don't trivialize The Plan. Don't mock The Plan. It said David Lough. It had to be David Lough. -
I'd say trading a 5-10 level prospect who's struggling in AA instead of the top guys like Bundy and Harvey would be a good middle ground.
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There's also the very significant role change with Britton. You can bet he wouldn't be anything like this effective if he was pacing himself for seven innings.
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The resigning part has little to do with anything. The Orioles traded for two months of Andrew Miller, and the opportunity to ask him if he wanted to resign a deal on the Orioles terms, which he declined. I would never give up much for the right to resign a free agent at free agent market rates. It's a reach because you've declared Rodriguez an ace after 20 major league innings. He's basically had the same MLB career as Bob Milacki did at the end of the 1988 season.
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There's going to be some level of complaining no matter what they do. But the Orioles have to err on the side of usually giving their prospects the chance to succeed. That's the primary way they're going to get value out of the pre-arb players they need to compete with teams that have more resources. If you make a habit of trading prospects for established talent the payroll quickly becomes unsustainable.
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Mike Wright's first two MLB starts he didn't allow a run, and gave up three in his first 19.1 innings. How many times did he get featured on SportsCenter? (I'm really asking, I very rarely watch national sports media.)
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Wow... that's quite a reach!! Yes. By some measures that's the worst trade in MLB history. By fWAR from the point of the trade until the end of the various players' careers the O's lost that one 137.9 to 0.4. That's kind of like trading the entire career of Hank Aaron for Ryan Lavarnway.
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It's the kind of line I wish were sustainable. I think it would be fun to have more annoyingly pesky hitters as a contrast to the Chris Davises of the world. But Luke Appling hasn't been a viable model since roughly WWII.
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Sure, both fans and management would like a guy with 100 walks and 50 homers, instead of 100 walks and eight.
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I have to think that he'll eventually hit for a little power. Right now his ISO is essentially the same as an average pitcher batting. He has to be better than that.
