TradeAngelos
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Posts posted by TradeAngelos
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As the money keeps flowing so will the wins. If not for a complete catastrophe of injuries and other off field issues Yanks would have been right there with Red Sox.
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This team will have a payroll close to $100 mm next year even if they don't sign a big star. They probably could sign Hamilton and keep payroll under $120 mm for 2013. After that, it gets harder.
We are at about $120 mm for 2013 keeping Reynolds and McLouth with X free agent (obv Grienke/Hamilton)
How does it get harder after that? We have money coming off the books every year until 2014, and then it is just Jones and presumably Wieters making the "big" money. Between the two they will probably be $20 mm between the two, maybe $22 mm at the most if we extend Wieters. Don't see how it gets harder at all.
Who is "the core" moving forward that we will have big bucks tied into? Jones, Wieters and who else?
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Which would you choose if we did have to chose?
You can sit here all day and argue that we don't have to choose. None of us have the full facts about the Orioles' economics, and I just don't feel like driving myself crazy wishing the Orioles were going to suddenly decide to increase payroll by 30-50%. Maybe they could, maybe they couldn't, but they clearly aren't going to, so I'd rather think about how to spend the money they are willing to spend, instead of thinking about how to spend money they aren't willing to spend.
I take the younger player every single day of the week and twice on Sunday, without thinking twice. It isn't even a decision.
We have more than enough circumstantial evidence to suggest we do know what they are capable of IMO.
No one is asking to spend $200 million and be the Yankees. Just bump the payroll up from $100 to $120 million and this team will flat out contend year in and year out, because there will be that one superstar added to an already good playoff team and core. The Jays could have "stayed pat" but guess what, they saw the writing on the wall and have been acting accordingly recently. I just wish the O's would do the same. They still might, and if they do I will be the first one singing their praises. It isn't that much a payroll difference, but I think it makes the team so much better overall.
I am holding out hope.
Just think the margin for error is too small going with what we have into next year and the couple after that.
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I guess that is intended as a sarcastic remark. I can tell you right now, if I had the choice of using $80 mm to sign Hamilton for the next four years, or using it to extend Wieters through 2019 (i.e., pay him the $80 mm for his four FA years), I'd spend it on Wieters. I believe in his defensive value, I believe in his game-calling, I believe in his leadership, and I believe that his best offensive years are yet to come. If that makes me a blind homer, so be it. Per fangraphs (admittedly, not the definitive source of all baseball wisdom), Wieters has been worth $40.9 mm the last two years, while Hamilton has been worth $37.9 mm. I'll spend the money on the guy who has been doing it in an Orioles uniform. I'm not saying that's the only way to see it, but it is certainly not an absurd position.
Now, if you want to argue that we have the resources to do both things, that is another argument entirely. But if we have to choose, I'm choosing Wieters.
We don't have to choose.
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I bow to your knowledge and ability to work in google docs.
Did I say anywhere that I didn't want a $120m payroll in 2013? The discussion has been, as always, Josh Hamilton and Zach Grienke. I assume those are the guys you want. My stance is that I don't want to be paying either of those guys $20m+ in 2018, 2019, and 2020. That is all.
What PA can or can not afford means nothing to me, but please keep trying to label me as someone who doesn't want to see payroll increases. Do you think I have some invested interest in putting more money in PA's pocket?
All I've ever said was that I didn't want Hamilton beyond 5yrs at no more than $20m per year. Admittedly, that's pretty much as good as not wanting him.
Do you not have a cap? Or does it all come from Peter's bottomless pit and therefore you could care less?
LOL you love the hyperbole and putting things in people's mouth you don't agree with don't you? We just want spend $200 million using Pet's "bottomless pit of money!" Yay!! That is what makes you look stupid when trying to argue your point, because NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Ever.
I think the Orioles can afford $120 million a year in salary, probably more but we will just leave it at that for now since you need a specific number.
I also wouldn't pay Hamilton more than $120 million.
Is that clear enough for you or do I need to repeat myself?
Since Hamilton and Grienke are not options according to you, who ARE some options next year, or the year after? Will anyone EVER be an option?
And good business models don't structure things on a year to year basis, they plan things out for the multiple years to plan accordingly with their budget. Professional sports teams are no different. Obviously things will fluctuate a little bit but if you aren't looking into the future and trying to stay one step ahead there is a problem.
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Like Number5 said, you need to fill out the roster to 25 guys for every year. For example, you only have 20 players' salaries listed for 2015. I guess you could assume that those five additional players will all be making the league minimum but that's almost certainly not accurate. It is probably more like 18 or so for 2015 because you have Q and Ford listed (I doubt either are still around in 2015). Andino is listed for 2013 and 2104 but he is already gone. Jim Johnson also is not a free agent until after the 2014 season.
Baseball-Reference's projected future payroll (through 2015 at least) seems pretty accurate or at least in the ball park.
I would bet that those last 5 guys make the minimum those years, they will be roster filler/young guys on first contract.
And that baseball reference projection is assuming we keep every single player on the current roster, and none of them fall by the wayside in the next couple years. That won't happen. Are all the deep Arb 3 and 4's going to still be here and on the books at those numbers they project? Who knows, probably not for one reason or another.
It also looks like they have us picking up Markakis $17.5 million option in 2015 which is not happening in this lifetime, am I reading that right?
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I wholeheartedly agree that we are going to see a wave of salary inflation now that the clubs are going to have $25 mm/yr in extra national TV money and a lot of teams are getting more local TV money as well. That's the main reason I want to lock up some of our players before that wave of inflation really hits. That's why Tampa just extended Longoria even though he already was under contract for several more years.
Ok so we can agree that this "$100 million benchmark" that folks want to use as some indicator for now until eternity is constantly changing and going higher, every single year.
I am all for locking up our own players long term, and using a little Tampa strategy if that is what it takes. Heck I would sign Wieters to a 10 year deal right now, but what have to Orioles ever done to give me confidence that is even an option? Even being discussed? Who are these players outside of Wieters who are we talking about here.....Machado?? I would lock him up too. Outside of those two you have a bunch of question marks, or stop gap players. Young guys and who knows what they turn out to be. Not paying Jim Johnson right? Not worth it to pay closers market rate so he will be gone.
It just seems like we are stuck in the middle, like we have been forever. Not doing anything proactive like that, and at the same time refusing to use free agency in any capacity. I would love to see both, but indications are that isn't happening.
Like MSK and others have said it is always something, about every single FA, every year. Always an excuse why we can't afford this, why that guy won't be right for us. It is actually pretty comical that we have a glaring need in LF AND a MOO bat, yet some will still claim Hamilton is "not a fit".
Ok so you don't want to spend on free agency? Then start talks with Wieters and Machado and get something done. Extend Hammel. Re sign Reynolds for 3 years. Get anything done to secure the future of this team. Adam Jones can't do it by himself.
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Probably here. Even assuming nobody blows up and gets a crazy extension, AND the O's fill out the rest of the roster with minimally-salaried players they're at or around $100M through 2015.
Yeah I am well aware of that spreadsheet, I linked a similar one in my post. That is what I am using.
For 2013 we might be around $100 million, BUT that is assuming we re sign everyone including Reynolds. If not it is around $90 million.
After that, with my best estimation in my crystal ball I have about $90 million in 2014, $81 million in 2015, and in 2016 nothing even remotely that close because it is hard to project out that far and salary commitments drop off a cliff. That includes every single Arb eligible player back, Weiters getting max (arb) money and no one leaving.
I can list all the players I have down and for what if that would help.
Player...............2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nick Markakis....15.35 15.53 10.00 11.00 12.00
Brian Roberts....10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Jones.......8.83 13.33 13.33 16.33 16.33 17.33
JJ Hardy............7.42 7.42 6.00 7.00 8.00
Mark Reynolds...8.00 8.00 0.00
Jim Johnson......6.90 FA FA
Jason Hammel...6.50 FA FA
Matt Weiters......4.50 7.50 12.50 FA
Tsuyoshi Wada...4.07 OPT FA
Wei- Yen Chen...3.66 4.16 0.37
Nate McLouth.....2.50 3.50 FA
Wilson Betemit...2.00 OPT FA
Darren O'Day.....2.20 4.50 FA
Bobby Andino.....1.80 2.50 FA
Dylan Bundy.......1.25 1.25 1.25
Troy Patton.........0.80 2.50 2.50 A4 FA
Luis Ayala...........1.00 FA FA
Miguel Gonzales..1.00 1.00 3.50 6.00 8.00 A4 FA
Brian Matusz......1.00 2.00 3.50 A4 FA
Chris Tillman......1.00 2.00 5.00 A2 A3 FA
Joe Saunders.......FA FA FA
Taylor Teagarden.0.80 1.50 2.00 FA
Omar Quintenilla.0.80 1.00 1.50 FA
Pedro Strop........1.00 3.00 4.50 6.00 7.00 FA
Tommy Hunter...1.80 2.00 2.50 FA
Manny Machado..1.00 1.00 1.00
Chris Davis.........3.30 5.50 8.00 FA
Nolan Reimold.....1.00 2.00 3.00 FA
Steve Johnson....1.00 1.00 1.00
Lew Ford............0.60 1.00 1.50
Ryan Flaherty.....1.00 1.00 1.50 A2 A3 FA
Xavier Avery
Eduardo Rodriguez
Nick Delmonico 0.70
Steve Pearce
Joe Mahoney
Stu Pomeranz
Zach Clark
Oliver Drake
Louis Exposito
Jake Arrietta......1.00 1.50 2.50 4.00
(If you see numbers in there that are obviously not right I put them in there for estimations, like Markakis for example. I know I could be off but I made my best guess. Feel free to correct anything and put your own numbers in)
Look I just want the facts, I am sure there are some things missing, wrong projections so feel free to correct anything that is wrong and I will change it. I tried to estimate with "worst case scenario" numbers. Some of these guys I have included will be older and who knows if we will even keep them (Hardy as an example). Included them anyway. Some young guys who knows how they will produce, gave them benefit of doubt as well.
Also with the "MLB inflation" a $100 million payroll will be nothing in a few years, contenders in the AL will be spending $150 million. Heck in 2012 there were already 10 teams over that threshold, and I bet it goes to about 14 if not more in 2013. The salaries and payroll just continue to get higher every year.
You have to keep up, and if you don't you will be left behind. Especially in our division and in this sport.
Last 15 teams to win World series average payroll adjusted for inflation....$116 million (actual $100 million, going back to 1998). To win the AL it is $120 million.(actual $101.5 million). That like everything else in MLB will jump in large increments as the years go on.
Unless you plan on developing the next Josh Hamilton and waiting 5 years for him, you might just have to get that on the free agent market for once in the last 15 years. I know it is crazy and stupid according to most around here, but teams really do use this avenue to improve their team quite often. Teams that win it all usually have a few of these players, because they know they can't just magically develop every single thing they need from the farm system on cue. All some of us are asking for in ONE. ONE in 15 years if the price is reasonable.
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And so I ask you again, what is so dirt poor about a $100m payroll? We're probably going to have a similar payroll to the Atlanta Braves, are they acting like catfish too? Or do they get a pass because they've used some of their money on FA's?
Could you project out the next couple of years and tell us where this "$100 million payroll" is coming from in our own players? I don't even see it for 2013, and sure as heck don't see it after that. Oh I forgot, all our retreads are going to be superstars and we are going to sign them all to big contracts I guess. Build from within!! Free agents just destroy teams and never help them to win!
The fact is we have ONE guy signed long term right now in Jones. ONE. We have as much payroll flexibility over the next 4-5 years as any team in MLB, even counting signing guys like Wieters to long term deals. Any other current Orioles who are going to break the bank that I am unaware of? Lay it out for all the stupid people who don't know what we are talking about.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t50_b9iaARDxOK6TPjab3gQ&output=html
See if that helps.
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So I was reading the Fielder thread and saw that the crazy woman tweeted something so I decided to pull up her twitter to see if anything else interesting was on there.
What I realized is that she is clearly obsessed with twitter/attention and tweets more than any human alive...holy smokes.
Here it is 12pm on a Monday and she has already logged 63 TWEETS! Really?
Who tweets 63 times before lunch on a Monday?
I would pull some more gems out (they are in there) but it would take me too long to wade through the thousands of tweets over the last week or so. This woman clearly has issues.
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Off the deep end again!
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 5h
RT @TFH721 @Jen_Royle Charm harm city. We will charm you if u are 1 of our own.... We will harm you if you arent 1 of us.
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 5h
@DubbleTee66 @tfh721 Charm? Lol [response to tweet about Charm City]
Trevor @DubbleTee66 8h
I want to congratulate @Jen_Royle for escaping Baltimore. I hope you find a good sports town to work in.
Retweeted by Jen Royle
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 12h
RT @CustomTaylord Will miss @Jen_Royle's objective/intelligent POV. A scapegoat to sorrows of dying franchises flock of soulless Baltimorons
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 16h
Hmm... Me? Lol RT @MyPinstripes @YankeesInk I know part of her wants to tell the people in Baltimore to suck it, LOL @Jen_Royle
Didn't like this article toomuch it seems....
http://baltimoresportsreport.com/jen...ore-22756.html
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 10h
@Edgar_Walker @BalSportsReport I will call you tomorrow. I'm sure you're looking forward to this conversation as much as I am.
3:22 AM - 21 Dec 11 via TwitBird ? Details
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 10h
Edgar Walker @balsportsreport should be absolutely ashamed of himself and his lack of research on his subject matter. What a disgrace.
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 10h
@GethinCoolbaugh Dumbest and most immature thing I've ever read. This kid has no idea what he's talking about.
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 10h
@ScenesOfMadness Every fact is wrong... And he's comparing me to women who don't even do what I do.
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 10h
@ScenesOfMadness Totally agree. I'll never be Amber [Theoharris]? You have got to be kidding me. Who do these people give blogs to????
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 10h
@M_Haze91 @ScenesOfMadness I'll just call him tomorrow and listen to him quiver over the phone
Jen Royle @Jen_Royle 10h
Lets chat, buddy. You are beyond clueless my friend RT @Edgar_Walker RT @BalSportsReport: Jen Royle Leaving Baltimore
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So she's leaving Baltimore to go back to boston for no job?
That is called getting fired.
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How in the world did I miss this thread??
Good Lord this woman is nuts.
I kind of knew that already but the twitter account just seals the deal.
Is Yankee/Red Sox Hegemony coming to an end?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Not true.