Big Mac
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Posts posted by Big Mac
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He's also now 5th in the AL in OPS at .875. He has certainly earned an all-star appearance, I hope he gets that recognition.
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8 hours ago, Os4days said:
Optioned or designated for assignment … merely semantics. Bottom line there were plenty of guys who was ready to never see Mounty in a Orioles uniform again.It's not semantics they are entirely different things. Wanting someone optioned means you want them to remain in the organization and hopefully straighten things out in Norfolk (there could be other reasons but that is typically it).
A DFA means you are fine with giving every other organization the chance to claim the player for nothing, essentially cutting the player loose. In that case you are indifferent if the player is ever in an Oriole uniform again. Nobody has advocated for that for Mountcastle to my knowledge.
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Wish we could stop derailing every single thread about how we need more starting pitching in order to compete in the playoffs. I know the argument verbatim because I've read it from one poster in probably 100 threads at this point.
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1 hour ago, wildcard said:
What does that mean?
I am watching for a Kjerstad promotion to AAA and Haskin return to AAA from rehab.
Kjerstad promotion has already been reported.
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We need to go 56-52 the rest of the way to win 90 games. Given the record over the first 1/3 of the season, I would consider anything below 90 wins this season a disappointment.
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2 minutes ago, joelala said:
Send him down. He’s not walking anymore. There are other guys who could help us right now. It’s no different than the situation with Grod. If we are in win-now mode, it’s time for someone else to get a shot to produce.
Going into today he had an .821 OPS over his last 14 days and .744 over the last 28 days. Do we really expect Westburg or Ortiz to produce better than that? Sit him against tough lefties otherwise I'd keep trotting him out there everyday.
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
Like I said, I’d like to study this in a more systematic way. My memory isn’t that good either way, but off the top of my head, I believe last year Steven Kwan and Jeremy Pena started extremely well. Checking — Kwan: .825 OPS in his first 101 PA. Pena: .800 OPS in his first 100 PA. This year: Ryan Noda .915 in his first 103 PA, Blake Sabol .803 in his first 100 PA.
Again, I’m not arguing that the odds favor Westburg blazing out of the gate. But it does happen.
I think it's also worth noting that Westburg is much more seasoned than some of the other top prospect sthat have come up and struggled out of the gate. I mean, he has 594 AAA plate appearances at this point. He isn't some 21/22 year old kid jumping from AA or after a brief AAA stint. I'd like to think that experience would mitigate the transition period to ML pitching, but who knows.
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3 minutes ago, Pickles said:
Oh, I didn't know we got to cherry pick the other players worst performance and use that as exemplary of their entire production.
In that case, no I don't think Ortiz can match that as he has a career .349 OPS.
If you don't like the cherry picking we can also go with the .665 career OPS for Mateo. Maybe Ortiz can't top that as a rookie, but I'd call it a coin flip. Ortiz's OPS over 4 major league games is irrelevant.
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36 minutes ago, Pickles said:
I think that's the moral. I'm not for sending him down, for the record, because guys are going to have to take lumps.
But we can't have 4-5 guys doing it at once and expect to compete.
Gunner isn't better than Urias right now.
I'd be shocked if Ortiz was better than Mateo right now.
Westburg has the lower bar to hurdle and is older, but there's no guarantee he's better than Frazier right now.
Stowers doesn't even look like he belongs in the major leagues, let alone taking ABs away from Hays and Santander.
The general consensus of the board over the winter, and the OP is a great example of that despite the 6 weeks of additional evidence, was that those rookies should be playing over the vets.
Well, we wouldn't have the second best record in major league baseball if that was the case.
You would be shocked if Ortiz couldn't match the glorious .354 OPS Mateo has posted over the last two weeks?
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2 minutes ago, Gurgi said:
He was never a top 100 prospect. The industry does not think much of him. Sure he might turn out to be awesome......but if he is going to make it he will do fine if we send him back down.
Lets see someone that likely is in the Orioles long term plans. Bring up Cowser.
I absolutely disagree with the notion that the industry does not think much of him. He looks awful right now but let's not discount the caliber of prospect Stowers was.
I think we are getting a lot of recency bias here and I personally don't believe the gap in talent level between Stowers and Cowser is that significant. But people will see 30 sporadic plate appearances and jump to conclusions, it happens.
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7 minutes ago, Gurgi said:
Being Stowers is not a prospect there is little reason to suffer with zero production. Might as well see what Cowser can do.
Other than in a technical sense of he's lost prospect eligibility, in what world is Stowers not a prospect?
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Gameday is now showing that Tate pitched the 7th. Was anyone watching on Milb.tv that can confirm?
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5 minutes ago, deward said:
Povich would have to figure out how to put up an ERA of less than 4.00 above low-A ball before he shows up in anyone's rear view.
Not really the thread for this, but Povich has a 1.91 FIP this season in AA.
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6 minutes ago, rm5678 said:
Jim Palmer has called him Akins on a couple of occasions too.
If only they put the names on the back of the jerseys to clear this up
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Just now, HelenaEngineer said:
I wouldn't get too worked up about a dWAR based on 29 games in 2023 for a player who is only 27 and has been above average on a career basis defensively. In any event, his last two seasons, he had a combined 5.4 WAR while hitting less than he has this year. I suspect his defense will end up at a normal level and there has not been some sort of step change in his ability, but I guess we will see. I still don't see moving him for "prospects" as making any sort of sense unless they are very highly rated prospects. And if he somehow has become "replacement" level, you wouldn't get much value anyway.
Mullins and Santander also show a negative dWAR for 2023 with Stowers the only Oriole outfielder above 0.0, so I guess it's a wonder they catch anything hit to the outfield.
If we are going to get all worked up about a 2023 WAR and declare Hays "replacement level" maybe we can just trade Mateo and his 1.7 for Aaron Judge and his 0.8 and get the Yankees to throw in a top prospect as part of the deal.Completely fair point to not get too worked up into WAR numbers and especially dWAR numbers this early.
I'd counter with his dWAR was -0.2 last year and he posted a whopping -6 OAA last year. This isn't an early season statistical fluctuation, he's been a bad defensive outfielder for some time now. I hope he keeps hitting but if he reverts to the ~750ish OPS player he's been his entire career, we're looking at a close to replacement level player.
Now, I'll qualify this by saying a move to RF could change all of this and his arm would really play there.
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23 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Shouldn't this be in the Captain Obvious thread? You only need to be good to make the playoffs and please don't tell me the Phillies were a great team last year.
We are going to ride the current staff and see where it leads us. Dylan Cease wasn't Dylan Cease overnight. Corbin Burnes wasn't Corbin Burns until he had 2-3 years in MLB. For now, I'll take good.
Add Voth to trusted relievers. The bullpen gets deeper without making a move. Givens replaces Akins. Irvin still a factor at Norfolk.
How many people, including the thread starter, thought we were "good" before the season started?
This is a good post. To call out a minor pet peeve here, it's "Akin" not "Akins". I've been seeing this all the time on here and blows my mind we can all know a player's average exit velocity, sprint speed, spin rate, extension, etc. yet miss the spelling of their name.
Mini-rant over, I agree with the premise that it's early, the starters are relatively inexperienced and should get better. And even if they don't, we're still good enough to win a lot of games.
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30 minutes ago, HelenaEngineer said:
So let me make sure I understand this. You want to move Hays, who is tied with Adley for the 2nd best OPS+ on the team behind Mateo and plays an excellent LF and Urias, who has been the 2nd best hitting infielder on the team, again behind Mateo, and can play all four infield positions for "pitching prospects"? Not even pitching that is ready to help the major league team. For a team that has shown all the signs of being a serious contender, breaking up the lineup for "prospects" seems like a very questionable move, especially given that both players have two more years of team control after this season.
If you are making a move that can help the 2023 Orioles, that is a different story but taking out two of your better players for "prospects" is the sort of move a 2018 or 2019 Orioles team would have been in position to make, not the 2023 Orioles.Hays hasn't played an excellent LF for about two years now...big part of why he is currently a replacement level player despite an .840 OPS.
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Based solely on my eye test, he looks much better defensively in the OF than he did in his brief stint last season. Let's also remember that by every advanced metric, our corner OF defense is atrocious so the bar is pretty low for him out there.
I put zero weight into his offensive results over 21 sporadic at bats and his K/BB numbers are fine. I'd keep finding ways to run him out there 4-5 games per week and see what we have.
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19 minutes ago, SteveA said:
That's the major point I disagree with you on. You are advocating taking out starters even earlier than he has and putting even more stress on the bullpen (yes, you mitigate it a little with your idea of replacing a 'short man' with a 'long man' in the pen, but that doesn't do enough) Our pen is already pitching too many innings.
Except for Grayson who may be on an innings limit, I don't think you can, or should, have a quick hook with guys. Just hurts the bullpen too much in the long run. Just because a guy struggles in the early innings doesn't mean he can't put it together and recover and give you a couple more innings. If a guy is under 50 pitches and runs into an early rough patch, I think it is better to see if he can work out of it, for the good of him learning how to do that as well as for the good of the bullpen.
Sometimes he wil work out of it and give you a couple more good innings to spare the bullpen, like Lyles did for KC yesterday. And sometimes he'll continue to get hit to the point where you HAVE to take him out.
When the latter happens, and we lose, everyone says "Hyde left him in too long" and blames the loss on that.
Well, #1, you have no idea of the long man, who is probably a failed starter, would have done any better. #2, we might still have lost the game anyway. And #3, there are long term benefits to letting that starter go another inning or two when it comes to bullpen overuse.
I agree with all of this. It's a long season and you can't pull your starters at the first sign of trouble every game like you would in a postseason game. Your bullpen would never make it through 162 managing that way.
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13 minutes ago, interloper said:
I get that it's a small sample, and I think Kremer is obviously better than how he's pitched. But let's take a look at the numbers:
7 HR in 29 IP is atrocious, especially when you consider that he allowed 11 HR in 125 IP last year. That's a huge problem.
If my math is right, he's already allowed 30% of the hits he allowed all of last year.
His stuff does look good, except when he throws trash cutters in the middle of the plate, but something is very wrong with Dean Kremer right now.
I'm not sure I entirely agree with the last sentence, I think he's just a bit off right now. He has a 5.86 FIP so it's not like he's been that unlucky, but probably a bit better than the ERA indicates. His K/9 is up, BB/9 about the same but as you pointed out the long ball has been a huge issue, jumping to 2.1 HR/9 from 0.8 last year. That all together combined with what I've seen when watching him is he's making a handful of bad mistakes per game and paying the price for it. I guess I don't see what a stint in AAA is going to do for him on that where he is more likely to just get away with those mistakes.
If he goes like 2 IP and gives up 7 ER tonight and then can't get out of the 4th next start then sure I'd probably make a move and give Hall or Rom a shot or something. I'm certainly not in a hurry to bring back Irvin who isn't even able to miss bats in AAA right now. I think being a year removed from a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP in 125 IP gives you more rope than 29.2 innings, especially when there is no obvious replacement.
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I'm probably letting him get 3-4 more starts before I consider doing anything. His stuff looks good to me, we don't have immediate upgrades to choose from and I think people are putting way too much stock into an inflated ERA over 29.2 innings.
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59 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:
Could be a brawl today. Baker's moonwalk Monday night was duplicated by Garrett last night. If Baker comes in things could get feisty, especially if he hits someone.
I seriously hope Baker and none of other pitchers are juvenile and stupid enough to throw at anyone over that.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
It’s close to Disneyland. It can be a pretty long drive from the downtown LA area, depending on the time of day.
When I went a few years ago, there was a train I took from downtown LA that dropped you off right by the NHL arena and Angels stadium that worked pretty well.
https://metrolinktrains.com/explore/orange-county/angel-stadium/
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Roch just tweeted that Hays "will try to swing the bat in a few days"...if that is the case why in the world do they not just IL him?
Jorge Mateo 2023
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Yeah...it's time to pull the plug for me. I'm fine with keeping him on the roster as the 26th man for an occasional spot start and as a pinch runner/defensive replacement but it's now been 7 weeks of him flailing away looking like a pre-DH NL pitcher at the plate.
His OPS is now lower than last season and a whopping .643 over his last 751 PA dating back to the start of last season.