health55
-
Posts
179 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by health55
-
-
26 minutes ago, mlrhode said:
Maybe I’m reading too much into this but Seattle just traded for Santos a reliever from the White Sox. Maybe to free up Munoz for a trade?
Gregory Santos likely just replaces the recently traded Justin Topa in the Seattle bullpen.
-
1
-
-
On 1/29/2024 at 3:34 PM, Greg Pappas said:
The Marlins, White Sox, and Mariners are among the teams most often linked to us in regards to trade partners, as each appears open to dealing quality starting pitching. Starters like Jesus Lazardo, Garrett Braxton, Dylan Cease, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller get mentioned a lot. And, understandably, we have numerous thread discussing these options. Then there are the Brewers and Guardians with starters Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber rumored to be available. Yet, they are FA's at the end of '24 and IMHO don't seem like the best options because of it. However, there are other teams that could be matches.
So, in your estimation, which teams, besides Seattle, Chicago WS, Miami, Milwaukee and Cleveland intrigue you as potential trade partners and why?Last year this poster retired from a job of 27 years but twice snuck away from work to witness afternoon starts by Corbin Burnes (in college) and Bryce Miller (High A):
https://portlandpilots.com/documents/2016/5/20//vs_SMC_Box1.pdf
https://www.milb.com/gameday/aquasox-vs-hops/2022/06/09/675059/final/box
-
1
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:
I just read that Boras is asking for 9 years / $270M for Snell. Yeah, good luck with that Scotty.
That's over
1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:I just read that Boras is asking for 9 years / $270M for Snell. Yeah, good luck with that Scotty.
That's over $80 million more than the aggregate $187.7 million* Seattle are estimated to pay for a combined 25 years of team control over its current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. That works out as an average annual salary less than $7.5 million per starter. Attrition always looms but in today's pitching market, the Mariners are in an envious position.
* working off estimates at Baseball Trade Values.
-
2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Nightengale saying it’s the Mariners, who are now offering one of Woo or Miller, or Cease is a WS on OD.
The White Sox are asking, not that the Mariners are offering: "The Seattle Mariners have quietly entered trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for ace Dylan Cease, with the White Sox seeking a package centered around young starter Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. "
Dylan Cease would provide the shortest team control in the Seattle rotation (just half that of Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert).
Seattle has a combined 25 years of team control over its current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo at an estimated aggregate salary* of $186.7 million, or an average annual salary less than $7.5 million per starter. Attrition always looms but in today's pitching market, the Mariners are in an envious position.
Blake Snell may be asking for more money than the Mariners are estimated to owe their entire starting rotation over 25 years of team control.
* working off estimates at Baseball Trade Values -
3 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
Both signed minor league deals with the Mariners.
Austin Voth reportedly is returning home to Seattle on a one-year, $1.25 million Major League deal.
-
2
-
-
3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:
2021 was a LONG time ago.
In 2021 Anthony DeSclafani posted 3.0 fWAR with a 3.17 ERA in 31 starts (the same year Mitch Haniger posted a modest 2.5 fWAR with 39 home runs, 110 runs and 100 RBI).
That was a long time ago.
-
8 minutes ago, health55 said:
FWIW Seattle took college pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock in the first rounds of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts.
The Mariners have since drafted five high school position players in the first round:
In the 2021 draft the Mariners selected college pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in the fourth and sixth rounds.
It's an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.
It's not an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.
-
FWIW Seattle took college pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock in the first rounds of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts.
The Mariners have since drafted five high school position players in the first round:
In the 2021 draft the Mariners selected college pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in the fourth and sixth rounds.
It's an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.
-
29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Prospect cost cheaper than what? He will cost a ton.
Seattle is unlikely to trade Luis Castillo for anything less than an equally impactful MLB bat.
The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team wRC+ of 107, which ranked sixth in the American League, one slot ahead of the 105 wRC+ posted by the Orioles. This offseason Seattle has shed the 2023 wRC+ of Jarred Kelenic (108), Teoscar Hernandez (105) and Eugenio Suarez (102), plus part-timers Tom Murphy (140) and Mike Ford (123). The Mariners have added Mitch Garver (138) and Luis Urias (83).
Seattle still has work to do but the Mariners' raw hitting numbers will always suffer from playing at T-Mobile Park and in the AL West.
-
1
-
-
On 12/25/2023 at 9:26 PM, health55 said:
Seattle is highly unlikely to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert for anything less than an equally impactful bat with similar team control.
A trade of Jordan Westburg for Bryce Miller would be interesting because they were childhood friends and high school teammates. However, the Mariners are unlikely to leave a hole in their starting rotation without filling a void in the outfield.
Seattle might balk at one year of Anthony Santander at a projected $12.7 million but whom would the Orioles want for two years of Austin Riley at a projected 2024 salarly of $6.1 million? Would Emerson Hancock and a prospect outside Seattle's top 10 be enough?
two years of Austin Hays at a projected 2024 salarly of $6.1 million?
-
12 hours ago, clapdiddy said:
Wonder what they'd want for Castillo?
EDIT: Wow...didn't realize how much money he was owed over the next 4 years!
Luis Castillo is guaranteed $91 million over the next four seasons with a 2028 vesting option for another $25 million. The righthander has a full no-trade clause through 2025 with a $1 million assignment bonus thereafter.
Castillo was born the same month as current free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The projected contract for Snell ranges from five years, $122 million at The Athletic to seven years, $200 million at MLB Trade Rumors. Montgomery's projected contract ranges from five years, $127 million at The Athletic to six years, $150 million at MLB Trade Rumors.
Early offseason indications are that the projected free contracts have been on the conservative side (although Aaron Nola, who is six months younger than Castillo, came in near projections at seven years, $172 million).
Steamer projects 2024 WAR of 3.4 for Castillo, 3.3 for Snell and 3.2 for Montgomery (and 4.2 for Nola):
https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer
If the Mariners are operating as if they're financially strapped, the M's could offload Castillo's contract (with his consent) for low-cost pre-arb bat. The savings could be flipped in pursuit of a replacement starter because free agent pitchers reportedly find Seattle more attractive than free agent hitters.Big spenders that lose out on Snell, Montgomery and Shota Imanaga could turn to Castillo although Seattle's demands would be high in light of the market for starting pitching.
-
29 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:
A very sneaky / solid signing by the Mariners. Garver is not just a good hitting catcher, he's a good hitter period. Definitely worthy of a full time DH spot. His only issue has been staying on the field / healthy. I still think an India for Miller or Woo trade might have some legs given the needs of both teams, but agree that the door has probably closed on a trade with the O's unless the Mariner's are looking for prospects.
Jonathan India might rank sixth on the Seattle depth chart at second base behind Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero, Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss. As FanGraphs colummunist Dan Szymbvorski noted in his 2024 ZiPS projections for the Mariners: "(Hopefully Jonathan India stays off Seattle's radar; he's not actually projected to be much of an upgrade at second)"
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/
In the second half of the 2023 season Seattle ranked sixth in the American League in fWAR from second base with a robust 2.7 (and a league-average wRC+ of 101):
The Kolten Wong experiment in Seattle was a disaster but the Mariners have since traded for Urias, Rojas and Bliss while witnessing the unexpected (and perhaps unsustainable) emergence of Caballero.
Like most teams the Mariners have offseason needs but second base is not at the top of the list.
-
Seattle is highly unlikely to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert for anything less than an equally impactful bat with similar team control.
A trade of Jordan Westburg for Bryce Miller would be interesting because they were childhood friends and high school teammates. However, the Mariners are unlikely to leave a hole in their starting rotation without filling a void in the outfield.
Seattle might balk at one year of Anthony Santander at a projected $12.7 million but whom would the Orioles want for two years of Austin Riley at a projected 2024 salarly of $6.1 million? Would Emerson Hancock and a prospect outside Seattle's top 10 be enough?
-
On 12/23/2023 at 7:03 AM, Greg Pappas said:
Idea: Seattle sends RHSP Bryce Miller and OF Aiden Smith (19) to us for Cowser and Norby.
@Sports Guy just posted about the Mariners RHP Bryce Miller (25) in the Framber Valdez thread, highlighting how good Miller's stuff is. He's the guy I want the most, in comparison to Valdez or Cease. I wonder in Cowser alone could net him? If so, great. I love Miller at five controlled years more than Cease at two and Valdez at three, even if losing Cowser and Norby for six seasons. With the loss of Jared Kelenic to the Braves, the M's have a need in LF and a lefthanded bat, and need a good 2B as well. Norby's defense is questionable, but his power is not. Seems like a good fit. From a needs perspective, Mountcastle would also make sense as a trade candidate for the M's. Smith is a very good prospect, taken in R4 last year out of the Texas HS ranks. Click the link to learn more. I suspect some to scoff at the cost, but Miller could be a an excellent addition to our staff for years to come and Smith would be a nice pick up as well as a high ceiling OF.
Seattle is unlikely to part with Bryce Miller, who comes with six seasons of team control.
The Mariners' needs at second base are overblown. Kolten Wong certainly brought down Seattle's production at second base in 2023. In the first half of the season the Mariners ranked 11th in the league with 0.3 fWAR from second base:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lstats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=30
Aided by Wong's DFA on July 31, the Mariners in 73 second-half games ranked sixth in the league with a robust 2.7 fWAR (and a league-average 101 wRC+) from second base (the Twins ranked first):
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=31
The second-half rebound was fueled by Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore, who remain on the Seattle roster. The Mariners have since added Luis Urias, who would likely slot at third base if the season started today. Second-base prospect Ryan Bliss is projected to debut in 2024.
Like most teams, the Seattle Mariners have offseason needs but second base does not top the list. -
FWIW a swap of Cedric Mullins, Jordan Westburg and Heston Kjerstad for Logan Gilbert would be an even trade, according to Baseball Trade Values.
Neither team would be likely to sign off on that trade.
-
On 11/16/2023 at 2:45 PM, dystopia said:
I have some reservations about Mr. Take Me Out After 90 Pitches. Needless to say it has nothing to do with his numbers.
George Kirby exceeded 90 pitches in 17 of his 31 starts this year, topping 100 pitches five times.
Logan Gilbert exceeded 90 pitches in 21 of his 32 starts this year, tossing at least 100 pitches in four starts.
-
1
-
-
On 11/17/2023 at 5:17 AM, Frobby said:
Fair points. I’ll temper it just a bit by noting that Seattle is a tough place to hit. Seattle had a major league average team OPS off .734, but that equates to 106 OPS+. And, 1B Ty France had a bad year (99 OPS+), but he’s still in his prime and has been good other years (125 OPS+ in 2022, 115 for his career). Still, they do have some glaring holes.
Indeed the Seattle Mariners hope to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 106 and team ERA+ of 109.
As points of reference, this year the Orioles posted an OPS+ of 107 and an ERA+ of 106.
Seattle and the AL West favor pitchers while Baltimore and the AL East favor hitters.
-
On 11/6/2023 at 9:01 AM, btdart20 said:
Because they are a competitive team with a weak offense. Plus they have 7 SP options ready (plus Ray). The #5 guy doesn't have to be a stud. So it makes sense to speculate Miller or Hancock (or even Woo).
If I were the Seattle GM, I'd sign an OF type FA and hold off on a trade until they have a better idea of Ray's progress. So maybe more involved at the trade deadline.
FWIW - Hancock's injury was said to be a grade-1 strain. It doesn't seem like an issue. He's got more upside than Miller IMO.
Indeed the Seattle Mariners would like to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 106 and team ERA+ of 109.
Likewise the Orioles would like to improve on this year's team OPS+ of 107 and a team ERA+ of 106.
-
1
-
-
Great series regardless of the outcome of this game.
-
1
-
-
51 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Keep in mind that we’re pitching our #5 and #6 SP this series and SEA is pitching their #1-3.
I like Irvin tonight.
The Orioles will miss Seattle righthander Logan Gilbert, who might be the Mariner starter in Game 1 of a postseason series.
Bryce Miller entered the season seventh on the Seattle depth chart but has supplanted Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock are close behind.
-
This Seattle fan thinks Adam Frazier is due for a bounce-back season but Baltimore is a surprising destination in light of the Orioles' prospect depth in the middle infield.
-
1
-
-
What about 28-year-old righthander Chris Flexen, who had an ERA of 3.73 in 52 starts over the past two seasons before being relegated to the Seattle bullpen?
Flexen, who posted 3.0 fWAR in 2021, apparently comes with four increasingly expensive years of team control working off his vested 2023 salary of $8 million.
-
On 10/15/2022 at 7:44 PM, RZNJ said:
I would have to think long and hard before I would even trade someone like Connor Norby straight up for Kelenic. Kelenic has got 500 ML AB’s at a sub 600 OPS. How long does Seattle stick with him?
If Kelenic starts off in Seattle next year and doesn’t come around, his value craters.
In a trade of Connor Norby to Seattle, would the Orioles consider a different former No. 6 draft pick in righthander Emerson Hancock, who is only six weeks older than Jarred Kelenic?
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105017/
Readers at Baseball Trade Values like the proposed trade for the Orioles.
Puck News: Orioles sold to Rubenstein
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Plenty of timely material for an assigned sports franchise valuation in my current sports finance course through Adley Rutschman's alma mater.