Sanfran327
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Posts posted by Sanfran327
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58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Ok. Cowser platoons with Hays. Sounds like you want to give most of O’Hearns AB to Stowers. O’Hearn OPS .800 last year and is off to a good start. You’re pretty sure Stowers will do better?
Stowers is a better OF defender. So yes, I'm okay with that. And if Stowers doesn't do better, then you go to Kjerstad, who I (and I would imagine most of us) would believe would absolutely do better than O'Hearn. Good to have multiple options.
I'm also on record saying that I believe Stowers and Norby will be traded, so when I say replace O'Hearn with Stowers, I probably really mean Kjerstad. Problem there is that you can't bring up Stowers to fix a short-term problem and risk him falling on his face and making him even less valuable. Yes he's old for a prospect and yes everyone probably remembers his lackluster cup of coffee a while ago, but this surge has to be doing something to boost his value. I don't think it can be ignored.
Again, for a team that is really maxing out its 26 man roster, there are plenty of ABs to go around for so many good players. It's not that I think O'Hearn is bad, it's that I absolutely think he should never see the outfield again, and that he's better in a limited role. Yes, he OPS'd .800 last year, but go look up how many ABs he had. He's better in a part time role.
It's been pointed out that we really only have 1 everyday position player, and that's Gunnar. Rutschman, Santander, Westburg, Mullins, and Mountcastle are the next tier of regular, majority starters. Hays, Cowser, O'Hearn, and McCann are the third platoon tier that are either in a platoon with each other (Hays & Cowser), or on the short end of one (O'Hearn & McCann). And Mateo, Kemp, and Urias are at the end of the bench. At least this is how I view the roster for now.
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57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Kemp has 7 plate appearances in 9 games. You want to platoon Mountcastle? How do you propose getting Stowers AB with Cowser, Mullins, Santander, and O’Hearn all batting LH and accounting for the OF and DH?
Don't want to platoon Mountcastle, but maybe he plays 5 games a week. O'Hearn is better in a limited role, IMO. Plenty of ABs to go around for Stowers, Mullins, and Cowser. Maybe you forgot that Santander is a switch hitter. Hays to sit vs RHPs and we have 3 LH bats in the OF and Santander DH'ing, assuming Stowers is a defensive upgrade in RF.
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I haven't read this whole thread so I'm sorry if I'm parroting a theme here, but I'm sure I wasn't the only one that was pretty annoyed that Tony Kemp was batting in a situation to potentially win the game for us this weekend. Even if that was Stowers, I would have felt better. Kemp has no place on this team. Not when we have the overall infield and organizational depth that we do. Stowers or Kjerstad for Kemp seems like a no brainer to me right now. Keep O'Hearn and Mateo out of the OF so we have plenty of IF depth on the ML roster. I also don't really love starting Mountcastle and O'Hearn together as that kind of defeats their platooning/depth purpose of carrying both of them.
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KB with the sly RHCP reference during the snow in Pittsburgh. This guy.
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57 minutes ago, jamalshw said:
All four of them is a bit steep for me. But Norby and Stowers appear blocked beyond belief for the Orioles. And I would include Povich or McDermott in the deal, not sure I'd do both. But a rotation of Burnes, Grayson and Luzardo is a great top-3 even if Bradish is out for the year.
I don't like to think of it in terms of the price being too high for 1 guy, even if it is by a little bit. We only have 26 roster spots, and we have a lot of good players. I'd prefer to trade 4 guys that might not have a future here for 1 guy that is basically an ace. Every spot on our roster has to count from here on. There's more value in volume for Miami than there is for us at this point.
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I think teams are pretty smart overall and aren't likely to be unduly swayed by what is happening in Norfolk.
So if you aren't paying attention to a player's performance to assess value, what are you paying attention to? I'm also not suggesting that Stowers or Norby are going to bring back y2k Mariano Rivera, but they ought to bring back someone useful.
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I don't think they are.
Not by much.
Teams aren't going to go all gaga over a hot stretch by a 26 year old with 800 PA in AAA.
Not today. But if they keep up a 1.000+ OPS through mid July, that could change. It almost has to to some extent.
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3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I get that feeling too, but it is what it is. Some of these guys are going to be traded, some of these guys are going to be squeezed out. It sucks, but it is what it is. There simply isn't enough room for everyone.
I don't have an issue with it, unless there's a chance that Norby could be better than Westburg or that Stowers could be better than Cowser. I don't know that anyone here has ever considered either to be a likely scenario, but when we're trading some guys and keeping others, obviously the hope is we're keeping the right ones. Not that I hope the guys we trade away go somewhere else and flop, just that they don't stay here and flop.
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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
What I don't get is why it wasn't done in the offseason.
It would seem to me that it would be easier to get a deal done at that time.
True, but I think they're building value right now. I think that's another reason why they might not see the big club; don't want to risk slashing their value even in a small sample size. For now, it's all potential.
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I just can't shake the feeling that Stowers and Norby are going to be flipped for pitching this season. Neither of them belong in AAA anymore, and neither of them are going to be mainstays in Baltimore, IMO. So we'll see Holiday when the service time issue is over, Mayo when one of Mountcastle or O'Hearn is hurt, and Kjerstad when an OFer goes down. Only problem is, what happens when an injured player comes back? That's the only reason why Stowers or Norby would come up, because they can more easily be sent back down compared to the big three.
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I'd think that Stowers is the most conservative call-up, so that's my guess. Only question is, who gets injured first? That's the only catalyst I see to a call up. I don't think anyone is getting pushed off of this roster for performance/merit on either side of the equation.
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This was a hard fought series win. Bad weather, good to great opposing pitching, and a very feisty KC lineup. They’re going to be a tough out this year.
Two walk offs for the good guys though. A fun (stressful) series for O’s fans.
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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Pretty much agree but I would love to know the catch probability on that ball. I was on gamefeed on Savant and don’t see that category per game. O’Hearn looked like he got a good jump and took a decent angle. He looked awkward going up for the ball like he thought he was about to hit the wall BUT I’d like to see how many RF actually catch that one. Can anyone tell us or point out how to find the catch probability on that triple?
FWIW, and this is definitely not data driven, but Santa's catch the night before was on the CF side of that corner and he got to it without too much drama. And that's the difference between a real OFer and a guy moonlighting as one.
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13 minutes ago, waroriole said:
Cowser can play CF too. Also, we could have Kjerstad/Mayo up to push for ABs at 1B/DH.
Cowser can play CF. Nobody would want him to for an extended period. And I don't get the impression that ME thinks Kjerstad or Mayo are ready for a permanent promotion right now. Either way, this situation will resolve itself in due time, and we'll win a ton of games along the way.
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6 minutes ago, waroriole said:
That’s the biggest thing. And it’s not just Hays, they do the same thing with Mountcastle and Mullins. The unwillingness to find ABs for young players is baffling.
Of those 3 players, only one has a platoon mate that I care about, and that's Cowser for Hays. O'Hearn is just RH Mountcastle-lite, and I'm not sure who Ced's backup is to be completely honest now that McKenna is gone. So who is on the roster that you're advocating for? Or is that the real question?
They're in a tough spot with Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, and O'Hearn. None are all that great (though all can go on white hot streaks), and none are near bad enough to just cut bait. Doesn't seem like any of them would bring a lot back in a trade, and I'm not really sure who would replace any of them at this exact moment.
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I'd like to give KB some props for a funny call on Westburg's walkoff last night. "Westburg with a Wild, Wild, Walkoff" was clever.
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I had to remind myself last night that we're not going to have 162 games like our first two. Was a little frustrating to see our lineup struggle against Wacha, but it was just game 4. I think this team will have several long stretches of dominance as the season rolls on though.
Glad we pulled it out, but give me a laugher. I don't need the negativity lol.
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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:
League-wide, 1.12 HR/G so far, compared to 1.21 last season. Colder weather, so that number could go up, but it’s certainly too soon to say the ball has more juice this year.
Thanks, just going off of what we've seen at 4 games in Baltimore this year. Seems to be much different than what we're used to seeing early on. Particularly the balls that have cleared the LF wall. I think they even talked about it last night that they were surprised that 4 balls have already cleared it when it took a little while to happen last year.
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Palmer asks this question early every year: What kind of baseball are we going to have this season?
Traditionally, the ball doesn't start jumping at OPACY until mid to late May when it's really warmed up. We've already seen 4 balls sail over Lord Walltimore and Westburg's oppo taco last night. Witt's HR last night was completely demolished. The park is already playing like it's summertime, and we're only through April 1.
Seems to me that we could have a VERY live baseball this season based on what we've seen so far.
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I think it's a little silly to be concerned about a blown 1-run save in today's game. You need a fast baserunner with less than 2 outs and you're almost a lock to tie it up. The rules have made it harder to hold runners and easier to steal bases, so manufacturing that 1 run isn't as difficult as it used to be. I think the disengagement stuff should be suspended in a save situation, personally, but MLB wanted more drama, and now they have it. I think this is a big reason why Mateo would have to go hitless for 2 months to get kicked off the team.
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My pie-in-the-sky wish is a few years of 1994-1999 Kenny Lofton productivity. If we got that long of a run from him, that would be tremendous.
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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Huh?
You can both spend money and win.
No kidding. But spending top dollar isn't a prerequisite.
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3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:Yeah, I like him. He's an impressive guy, he's done a lot of great philanthropic work. Purchasing the Magna Carta is super impressive. Also, it's clear he's a diehard fan and he seems to be comfortable enough with himself to allow others to make decisions.
But I've said it before and I'll say it again, just because he's not Angelos and doesn't mean he's going to spend money. A lot of people around here seem to think it's a foregone conclusion that he will because...well, that's what people want to believe. The good news here is that the Angelos group set a really low bar to compare to, practically anything will be better.
Yesterday when that pinecone Brown asked him a question, something about how he and his new ownership group can help the team win, he didn't mention spending money in free agency. I'm going to re-watch the game today while I'm working and I'll listen closer to what he said, but he said a lot of things and none of them had anything to do with spending money and raising the payroll.
Now, maybe he was caught off-guard by that question and rattled off a few things that came to mind immediately, but if that's the case then spending money obviously isn't on the top of his mind. He's not said anything about it anywhere, from what I've seen. If someone can show me a quote where he's said that he'd like to spend in free agency, well, I'd love to be wrong.
So I think we're in great hands from a lot of perspectives, but the big thing that everyone wants to know remains to be seen. And it's not a sure thing.
I don't necessarily think he's going to just open the flood gates financially, either. I think ME is too smart to do that, even with someone else's money.
I think a combination of people like Elias and Rubenstein will always seek to assemble a best-value team. In my world, that does not mean cheapest. I think a lot of people see that phase and key in too much on the "value" part and think it's synonymous with "cheap". It's not. It simply means smart and responsible spending.
We have so much young talent on this roster that nobody could keep it all. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves would all have to make some very tough decisions at some point with this group. I'm glad we have such a long time to evaluate this, but when I say I think we're in great hands with Rubenstein, it's because I think he will listen to what ME recommends, and empower him to do it. Whatever that turns out to be. And again, I think it's the tandem of those two guys that makes me feel so confident, because I don't think ME will ever ask ownership to spend irresponsibly. Nobody has a crystal ball and nobody will nail every single contract extension of FA signing, but I think this group is going to have a pretty high success rate.
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Aside from the appreciation of watching a real #1 go to work (something we haven't had in decades), my thought about Burnes 2025+ / Elias / Rubenstein is that while I don't think ME is ever going to be of the Brian Cashman variety of GMs that just throw money at problems, he could prove to be the type that will spend big when he thinks the ROI will be there. 2024 could be the long, up-close look at Burnes that ME needs to tell Rubenstein that he's worth the investment if the money doesn't get too stupid. And it probably will, but this last offseason was a strange one for the top of the SP market.
Let's say we sign him to 6 additional years and he spends 7 as an Oriole counting this year, if we manage to win 2 championships with him under contract, I think that's a great return. Basically, my thought is to sign him for the full run of the youngsters and have him be the anchor of the pitching staff the whole time. This dude is built to have a long career.
Kevin Brown
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Funny you mention that, because I'm 99% certain we got drunk Ben McDonald the day we beat Tampa in extras to take the season series from them.
I don't think KB is much of a drinker. I looked at his Twitter a while ago, and I think he is or was a big runner.