StottyByNature
-
Posts
253 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by StottyByNature
-
-
53 minutes ago, dystopia said:
And your strategy would have burned us just like it burned Hyde tonight and will burn us in the playoffs later.
EVERYONE KNEW ROOKER WAS DOING DAMAGE THERE. Webb never should have thrown anything close. He's in scoring position in the batters box when he faces us. That was a critical at bat and we let him beat us.
You do not let Rooker beat you there. You make the next guy beat you. This is what I mean by a lack of baseball smarts.
This is like PHing Hays for O'Hearn a few games ago which people here also defended.
Just really stupid baseball.
You say stupid baseball, I say stupid post.
No, not everyone knew that Rooker would do damage there. You FELT that way because you are clearly pessimistic. That last hit just got him to the Mendoza line. You don't pitch around a guy to put the go ahead run in scoring position.
Kimbrel was terrible tonight, but he's been great the rest of the season. 100 win teams lose 62 games. It happens. I hope the team has a little more fortitude than you.
-
2
-
-
I don't think we should be too quick to shovel dirt on Austin Hays. Cowser is red hot right now and Hyde is correctly putting him in the lineup. I think the biggest thing is he has gained the confidence he can hit at this level after a really rough try last year.
Still, and I know this is not an earth-shattering statement, Cowser will not end the year with anything close to his current 1.378 OPS and Hays will not end the year with anything close to his current .233 OPS. Austin will have to be patient but his opportunities will come. He was an All-Star last year for a reason.
-
1
-
-
It matters to me that the team I root for has good guys on it. If their faith helps them toward that end that's great but I also don't think you have to be religious to choose to do the right thing. I do always cringe when athletes start an interview with thanking God/Jesus, etc. At some point it rings a little hollow - more like a reflex than it carrying real meaning.
-
2
-
-
4 hours ago, emmett16 said:
For sure. Bautista is putting a lot more valgus stress on the bow than, say, Cole Irvin.
But I think it’s pretty well documented that both over work & under work will lead to issues.
Could Bautista have avoided problems if he wasn’t risen so hard last year?
My recollection was that he hurt his arm on a pitch when his landing foot slipped. Seemed like more of a freak injury than wear and tear. But who knows.
-
16 hours ago, now said:
This one stands out to me as the most surprising:
- 910 AB: AVG
In other words, nearly two full seasons to accurately predict the next...?
Baseball is a game of funny outcomes. You can tap a ball in front of the plate and get a hit, or hit a screaming liner for an out. In order for those outcomes to balance out it would take a large sample size. It's also why hard-hit percentage is a better measure for performance, and why BABIP is a nice measure of a lucky or unlucky season.
-
1
-
3 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:
Holliday is the easy answer and it’s not even close, barring injury. Kemp can easily be released to make room for him. I ask again….without injury, who is leaving this team anytime soon? I just don’t see them releasing Urias, O’hearn, Mateo, and especially not Hays. They also have very little trade value. If Holliday comes up for Kemp, then you have Cowser, Mateo, McCann, Urias as your bench. I could see other moves as we get into May, but can’t see anyone but Holliday before then.
Agreed, Holliday is the easiest move.
I think O'Hearn is the next to go. Outside of a really nice start with us last year he just doesn't have the history to be handed regular at-bats. If Kjerstad is mashing he deserves to take O'Hearn's spot.
I'd be surprised if we move on from Urias or Mateo this year. They are valuable in back-up roles. If Mayo comes up he needs to be starting.
-
1
-
-
29 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:
Pretty cool use of the Peabody library - iconic Baltimore.
-
2
-
-
RIP Mr. Angelos. Funny how someone you’ve never met feels like a part of your life. I respect and appreciate his commitment to the city of Baltimore.
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I've said this before, but some of the negative reaction is not just about this decision. It is a cumulative effect. Odor being left on the roster when younger guys could have been given an opportunity. Frazier same thing. Not bringing up Grayson the year before (before he got hurt), punting on the 2023 offseason and deadline, etc. All of that adds up and I believe that has some fans understandably a little frustrated.
Onto what Elias has proven. It is unquestionable that Elias has proven to be tremendous at rebuilding, developing talent, rebuilding, building a farm, etc. What remains to be seen is if he has the ability to build a championship team. Once we win a championship under his guidance, then he will have earned what you are ready to give him. Until then, we have to see where this goes.
What is obvious is that we now are having a logjam and there are too many position players who are deserving of chances, but simply not enough spots for them all to fit.
Again a reasonable point. I suppose I look at all of the gnashing of teeth over Odor/Frazier with a broader lens. Much of it was at the behest of Henderson, Westburg, and Ortiz. Yes, I was itching to see the kids play, too. Henderson is the reigning ROY. Westburg is now in a great spot to take over a full-time role after some adjustment time. Ortiz was traded. What did we lose in that waiting? Should we have gone for it in 2022 instead of trading Mancini and Lopez? In retrospect I think he clearly made the right choice. Was 2023 not a resounding success? Rodriguez was certainly an unfortunate confluence of events. Now, if a guy like Stowers ultimately gets DFA'd then I will agree that the logjam was not addressed properly. Until then, depth is never a bad thing.
I suppose I look at Elias' job (and ultimate success) differently. In baseball, I believe you need to get to the playoffs (preferable as a high seed) and then it's a bit of a crapshoot from there. Hitters go hot and cold, though having an ace and a couple of lights-out bullpen options really boosts your chances. Elias addressed the need for an ace with a bullet. I have my doubts about the bullpen and wish he had done more/hope he will do more there.
One thing not mentioned here is we have no idea how much money Elias has been given to spend. While we may have "punted" on an offseason, do we really believe that he was told to spend money and just chose not to?
He has a calculated, measured approach and I think that is more likely to lead to sustained success even if it means asking for some patience.
-
1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:
I don't think any human (including Elias) is above criticism. I think it's perfectly okay if some question/don't like this decision.
As far as Holliday helping us toward the end of the season, if he is anything like any of our other top level prospects in recent years (Adley/Grayson/Henderson) it is going to take him a while to acclimate when he arrives. If he arrives later in the season, I don't think it is that realistic to rely on him being a difference maker in October. Last season, Gunnar didn't hit for almost the first 2 months of the season and Grayson had to be sent back down.
Fair point, but there is a wide gap between questioning a decision and acting like some grave injustice has been inflicted upon us by a nefarious overlord. Most of this thread has been the latter. Elias clearly has a vision for this team and so far it has worked extremely well. Anyone acting like this was some easy, obvious decision is plainly wrong.
I considered (and agree with) the second point and believe he will be brought up with enough time to make that acclimation by the postseason.
-
4
-
-
I think Mike Elias should have earned our trust by now. I have no problem with the decision. It’s not like they have slow played Holliday in the minors, he’s still awfully young for AAA.
If he’s as good as we think then an extra year is a perfectly reasonable play. Cowser is going to play a lot so it fits with the notion of not breaking in too many guys at once as well.
Holliday is more important to us at the end of the season than at the start anyway. If he’s the difference between making the playoffs or not then something has gone horribly wrong this year.
-
1
-
-
27 minutes ago, interloper said:
We wouldn't be trading him just to trade him. We'd be trading him (or Urias, or whomever) for some much-needed bullpen help.
If the value is there, sure go for it. If it's because we feel like we need to move him then the likelihood of getting appropriate value diminishes.
-
I think the Opening Day roster decision is overrated. We have excellent depth and it only takes one injury for the "surplus" to become a necessity.
You don't take Stowers based on a hot spring (too many examples like this to mention) and you don't trade him just to trade him.
-
I think we just need to embrace the power of "and" here. The 2023 Orioles won 101 games because of tanking AND the excellent work the front office did with those advantages gained from tanking. Put another way, tanking only provides opportunity, it does not guarantee success (see: Pirates, Pittsburgh).
I think some of you are missing the point on the "everyone had a shot at Gunnar" notion. Sure, that's true, but picking at the top of the second round still helped us. What if other teams were considering him for the second round (not unreasonable if there were signability concerns) and we simply had the earlier selection? Picking earlier in any round is always preferable to later.
There is nothing wrong with conceding that tanking provided the opportunity but the front office excelled at capitalizing on those opportunities. If another front office had the exact same resources the Orioles have had over the last 5 years it is unlikely they would reproduce the same results. Still, the resources were there for a reason.
-
4
-
-
38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
The Os went 19-46 after the trading Manny.
They won 29% of their games pre Manny trade..and they won 29% of their games post Manny trade.
That team didn’t tank. They just sucked. Adley and Gunnar were not drafted a result of ranking. Kjerstad, Cowser and Holliday were. That’s it.
Players don't tank, organizations tank. That the record didn't drop has nothing to do with the fact that the organization traded off good players for players that would help in the future. When teams "sell" they are folding in the season for better future odds, aka tanking.
The Lopez trade was definitely tanking as was holding off on starting Adley's service time. They were trying to cluster their prospects for a window of competitiveness even though he was clearly ready earlier.
-
Really hope they move on from Webb. He had a nice start with us but I think he's just filler at this point with little upside.
-
We got a one-year ace at a one-year price. It was excellent work by Elias but no one should expect anything further. I can't wait to watch him pitch.
-
5 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:
So you think a 30 yr old former Cy Young winner with a 1 whip is not getting a massive premium contract this offseason if he just doesn't implode?
Declined from what? A Cy Young winner to just a normal TOR starter? Because all careers go in a perfect linear path with no ups or downs. If it ticks a tiny bit up at 30, it is a clear sign of impending disaster.
WE HAVE MONEY NOW. We don't have to worry about not ever signing a FA again if in yr 6 or 7 the contract doesn't look great. Stop living in the past and recognize the future and where we are going with new ownership.
Never said he won't get that type of deal, just that I don't think the O's should give him that deal. And I'm also not just going to presume it's going to start raining money. Just because it's (theoretically) there doesn't mean we should spend with impunity. Look at the Mets last year. Give Elias whatever his higher payroll ceiling is and let him keep doing his excellent work.
-
Just now, TradeAngelos said:
Offer him 6/210 extension, he is getting 35m on FA market easy.
If you have to go to 7 years do it. Let's send a real message to everyone.
Absolutely not. He's 29 and his numbers declined slightly last year. Love this move for a year but there is no need to lock into something like that now. This was a perfect situation to use a prospect surplus and grab a legitimate ace to bolster the team for a year. Our core will still be coming from the minors.
-
Man, I love this trade. I'll be rooting for Ortiz and Hall. But we traded from the surplus of infielders, Hall is far from a sure thing, and we kept all of our big time prospects. A one-two punch of Bradish and Burnes is awesome.
The comp pick is a wash since we'll get one when Burnes leaves anyway.
-
3
-
-
4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
That's fair. If he's offered a QO, he's accepting the QO. The draft pick doesn't really factor in. It's all about the team control of Santander in that path.
It will be interesting to see. I could see another team offering him 3/45 and him taking that financial security over the QO. This assumes his 2024 is on par with his last couple of years.
-
23 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
Tough decisions every year with a competitive stockpile of prospects. The Rookie Integration Plan (RIP) matters. 2022 had a few SPs, RPs, and Adley. 2023 had Gunnar and Grayson given a long-ish leash, and then selected timing/short leash for a few others.
Does 2024 continue that measured plan? More aggressive? A measured RIP wouldn't see any veteran OFs traded and selectively play the rookies as needed. A more aggressive RIP would see one or more of Hays/Santander traded. This directly impacts the "waves" to deal from as @StottyByNature apply put it.
I'd give it less than a 5% chance that Santander is QO'd. Unless I'm underestimating his veteranosity no way we're paying him $20m when we have prospects or cheaper FA options. But I kinda doubt he's traded because he a core offensive player to the 2024 team. The QO wouldn't weigh any in a decision to trade him or not IMO.
I think Mullins is back in 2024 and 2025 as part of the EBJ RIP. We might see Mullins in LF and EBJ in CF. Could be a pretty athletic OF that season.
I tend to think Hays' skillset is more likely to be replaceable (compared to Santander's offense) with our set of rookies in 2024. Which means I think he's more likely to be traded than Santander. BUT Cowser could just as easily be traded too if the SigBot projects Beavers with more upside long-term AND the return is significantly more than what Hays would bring back. I think this is Elias' big decision for 2024.
What I think will happen -
2024 - Mullins, Cowser, HK, Santander, backup CF
2025 is an all LHH OF - Mullins, Cowser, HK, EBJ - so the best RHH hitting OF (maybe a FA? Norby?)
Which leaves the rest as tradable.
I actually think Santander is a prime QO candidate. You either get a comp pick for him or you slightly overpay for a year of his prime. Keeps payroll flexibility while maintaining an important player on the team, or get some value if he walks. I don't think he'd garner much in the trade market so I'm happy to hang on to him.
-
2
-
-
2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
No one thinks Cease is definitely the missing piece. He’s beyond stupid to suggest that.(I know you aren’t saying that)
That said, Cease absolutely could be the missing piece.
The reason I want Cease is the upside he has and his ability to miss bats, stay healthy and he has a level as a starter that many haven’t achieved.
Chances are, he won’t get to that level again but his chance of being dominant in a small sample size in October are higher than many other pitchers because of his stuff and upside.
We know this team has enough to be a playoff team. We know this team has a lot more talent coming and the team is likely to get more talented over the next 1-2 years than it was last year.
But we also know that we likely aren’t producing a high upside starter over the course of the next 1-2 years and another high upside starter is what this team needs for a playoff run.
Cease is no guarantee and again, it’s dumb for anyone to suggest he is or that it is what anyone is saying but he’s an obtainable guy that could provide this team exactly what it needs, so he’s worth the risk.
It’s ok to have more than 1 or 2 guys with TOR ability. It’s ok to increase the margin for error and have upper echelon depth in case of injury or unexpected poorer performance. There are no guarantees for anything. No guarantee Bradish keeps it up or GRod has a big full season or that the Os get more out of Cease. But the more guys you have with that type of ability, the better your chances are.
Going back to the thought of “winning a trade”. While it would be nice, that shouldn’t be the focus. We are past that. We are at the point where winning a trade should be defined by us making a move that makes us better and gives us a better chance to win in October. We give up a little more value to do that, so be it.
For all the ass kissing people do to Elias, they should feel confident that he can replace 25 year old MIers and others prospects that are in that 6-20 range. He has proven he can do it.
The top top guys are the ones that are harder to replace but when you have depth in those areas and you have a need, you trade out of it.
Well said, I agree with all of this. Any trade is a risk/reward, but you know what else is? Counting on a prospect to become a good big leaguer. Dylan Cease has a demonstrated track record and is a rare case where he has the stuff to come with an elite upside. High floor and also high ceiling is unusual.
No one knows if he is definitely going to be the missing piece and the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot anyway. But we can say with certainty that the O's did not have the starting pitching depth last year to make a confident run in the postseason. Cease would give us stability for the regular season and high-end potential in the postseason. While we won 101 games last year we outplayed our run differential. Elias is smart not to break in too many rookies at once so trading from this wave makes perfect sense. He has three late-first rounders this year to replenish some of that talent.
-
1
-
-
For all of our talk of a Cowser/Ortiz package you have to wonder if the holdup isn't a third piece the Sox are asking for. I would imagine they want an arm back and what we have there is questionable. I would guess we value Hall at much higher than others see him, for example.
John Means Decision Day
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Baumann needs to be moved back to a multi-inning 4th/5th inning or mop-up guy. He just walks too many people to be considered in high-leverage spots. I honestly wouldn't be too upset if ends up odd man out for when pitchers start coming back.