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Dibbs31

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    Astros series

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

    I personally don't think that our record against teams like the Athletics or Nationals speaks to how we would fare against the Braves/Dodgers/Astros. I'm also reluctant to extrapolate from divisional games because the familiarity there levels the playing field. Even a series against the Twins or Rangers isn't particularly telling because those teams don't have cache. Our regular season record speaks to how good we are against the field.

    Maybe we sweep the Braves, or maybe we get swept. The fact is we went 2-4. And I think that's ultimately a pretty fair representation of our talent level and head-to-head performance compared to those teams. In a three-game series, someone has to win more games than the other, and we weren't good enough in either case. We'll see if that's any different with Houston.

    Agree to disagree. Our 70 wins this year arent against the Nationals and Athletics (only 5 games against those teams total). It is against (arguably) the hardest schedule in the major leagues. O's lost 2/3 to the Phillies. Are the Phillies a better team? Not by any other metric and I'd bet $10k that they dont beat us 67/100 times based on that series. It's baseball, 6 games is not a big enough sample size to tell us anything really. Believe the Oakland A's beat the Rays in a series earlier this year. 

    Astros series

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

    It's a proxy that has some utility in the absence of more complete information. I'll count my blessings because in years gone by, we wouldn't have even had the interleague matchups to know how we compared to NL teams.

    If we played the Braves and Dodgers 100 times, how many do we win? More than 33/100?

    Absolutely more than 33. We went around 2-25 with RISP against the Braves on Saturday/Sunday and lost twice in extra innings. Could have easily been a sweep. In over 100 games against one of the hardest schedules in the majors we have a better record than the Dodgers and one game back of the Braves. Much better sample size there. 

    Astros series

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

    This is a big series in terms of seeing how we stack up.

    I think the three best teams in baseball are the Braves, Dodgers, and Astros. Not just because of their roster talent and 2023 production but also their pedigree. I think there's a good chance you have to get past two of those clubs.

    Against the Braves and Dodgers, we're a combined 2-4. At that pace and in a seven-game series, we would lose in six. One reason why I didn't want to sell out at the deadline is because I didn't think there was any move this team could make to turn losing in six to winning in seven. That's at least a two-game swing, which no trade is going to give you.

    This series might give us another data point.

    A 6-game sample size in no way is enough to make trade deadline decisions

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