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36 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
I find it quite funny that some of people who love giving Frazier $8 million to be the everyday 2B don't like giving Givens $5 million when the closer will make little more than major league minimum.
Some people just like being on the others side and the attention it brings.
Givens is not the guy we traded in 2019 (bad return but that's another thread) but he's still an effective middle reliever.
BTW, Givens was left off the Mets playoff roster most likely because he had been on the IL since September 17th for an undisclosed reason (most reports surmised it was because of COVID) and was activated for one game in October and he only threw the ball 92 MPH.
If they felt he was still weak from COVID, why risk him when he was the 6th/7th inning guy anyways and typically in these playoff series you have extra starters to use out of the pen.
I have not seen a single person "love" the Frazier signing. Who loves it?
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1 minute ago, E-D-D-I-E said:
Not a huge fan of Mateo, but as mentioned (sports guy), his power will play up in other parks. Secondly, with no shift, his ground balls in the 6 hole, are hits. I believe his value to be greater this coming year with the O's and even more valuable for some other teams, with better hitters parks. Mateo hitting .260-270 would be a huge asset.
If he hit .260-.270 he'd be one of the best SS in baseball.
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13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
Givens' 1.38 ERA was in all of 13 innings he pitched for the O's in 2020. The year before that were 4.57 and 3.99. I think highly regarded would be a massive stretch for any of those players at the time they were traded.
Even if you just went based off those two seasons he was still an above average reliever. Highly regarded is also a subjective term so like I said to Eddie I can't answer to that. I think, and the stats also back this up, that he was an above average reliever up until the time of his trade. For me, I would consider him "highly regarded". For you and Eddie, apparently not. I don't think there is anyway to definitively really say one way or the other.
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8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
When has he traded anyone who has been a highly regarded player? They were all dealt before he took over.
I guess it all depends on how you define "highly regarded". Was Cobb off a solid shortened 2020 season highly regarded? Was Givens and his career 3.32era who had a 1.38era when Elias traded him highly regarded? Was Bundy the former top pitching prospect who had been roughly a league average pitcher during his career? I don't know the answer to those. I just know that he has traded off multiple players and the returns have been less than impressive so far.
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8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
When has he traded anyone who has been a highly regarded player? They were all dealt before he took over.
I guess it all depends on how you define "highly regarded". Was Cobb off a solid shortened 2020 season highly regarded? Was Givens and his career 3.32era who had a 1.38era when Elias traded him highly regarded? Was Bundy the former top pitching prospect who had been roughly a league average pitcher during his career? I don't know the answer to those. I just know that he has traded off multiple players and the returns have been less than impressive so far.
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Is it at all possible that Westburg, Norby, Ortiz, etc. just aren't fully ready? They have coaches that they are with everyday, scouts in the organization, etc. that I would think speak with management about the players. We aren't there behind the scenes so we have no idea what the organization really thinks of these guys. Maybe they know something about Westburg, Ortiz, etc. that they're trying to fix before he gets to the majors and it gets exposed by major league pitching. Maybe they aren't in love with their defense (obviously not Ortiz). I remember when Jahmai Jones started off hot at AAA there was a lot of clamoring for him to be in Baltimore and Elias said something along the lines of he didn't want to call someone up until he knew they were ready and the last thing he wants is for someone they plan on being in Baltimore for a long time coming up and being sent back down. Well, Jones finally got the call and was pretty bad in Baltimore and is now out of the organization. Maybe he's just being extra cautious with these guys because of how that turned out. Rutschman was pretty bad at the plate for his first month before he finally broke out. Henderson started out great then cooled off. It's not like just because a guy did or didn't do good in AAA it means they can start on a winning team in the major leagues.
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I can't wait for the Elias special - multiple low ranked prospects where they are regarded as long shots and maybe one of them is a AAAA player.
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1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
Did Sir Sydney Ponson come back?
You better believe it. Had his career year, got traded at the deadline to SF, and came back that offseason to give up the most hits and runs in all of baseball but did throw 215 innings (what a different world) while leading the league in complete games and shutouts. Then was somehow worse the next year.
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This is a really good signing. He’s much better than Krehbiel and now Krehbiel can go back to middle relief.
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I can honestly say that is one of the most ridiculous trade proposals I have ever seen in my life.
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For me, I would be more than open to trading Mullins and would be actively shopping him. I think it was a big mistake to not trade him last offseason. He's a platoon guy who should bat no higher than 8th vs left handed pitching. I think his 2020 and 2022 offensive seasons are basically who he is. 2021 is obviously his ceiling and it's a pretty high one but I think that will end up as his career year. As an everyday player I'd expect him to hit around .270, have an on base around .320, and play a good CF. If he's benched vs lefties he would likely hit closer to .300. Last year he was .279/.340 vs righties, 2021 he was .299/.372, and in 2020 he was .305/.348.
That being said, I highly doubt he is traded. Elias seems to really like him. His speed isn't likely to decline over the next few years so while I don't expect that they'll extend him I do think they'll keep him around for another year or two. Also, it didn't exactly help his value when he was being benched in a playoff chase for McKenna. I have no idea what he'd be worth in a trade but I suspect that he's in a similar boat as I suspect Santander is and that's one where he's more valuable to the Orioles than he is to other teams.
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49 minutes ago, Frobby said:
What he said was that when you sign a FA pitcher, their first year is likely to be their best year. And that makes sense, since free agents are usually at an age where performance begins to decline, if it hasn’t already, and injuries can occur that hamper the pitcher’s performance thereafter.
And yet, we also know there will be numerous exceptions. I’d bet if I looked at 100 past FA pitchers on multi-year deals, the most common best year would be the first, but it might not be the majority of cases. Pitchers aren’t metronomes; their performance can fluctuate up and down.
I dug through the last 5 or 6 years in a different thread and went through pitcher by pitcher and the outcome was that most pitchers had a better year after their first year. IIRC, only one offseason resulted in even half of them having their first year be their best year and that was the COVID season so it's hard to really say if that's a true test or not.
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4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:
So 13th in MLB.
My fears are well-founded it would seem.
13th in the AL. For whatever reason they only show it by league. Not a number you want but by no means "prodigious". Most hitters higher than him are power bats.
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6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:
That is fair, but I will counter by saying that I will dread seeing him come to bat with a runner on first and less than 2 outs. He doesn't hit the ball hard and he's a slow runner, which means that he will probably produce GIDPs at a prodigious rate.
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Martinez 1/10, can only DH, 1 WAR player in 2022
Frazier 1/8, can play any position, 1 WAR player in 2022
One of them was wanted by some O’s fans and the other is causing some to question if Elias is the right GM for the job going forward. Really makes you think.
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Elias has stated he isn’t doing anything to “juke the odds” in 2023 that will potentially negatively impact 2024 and beyond. That means they aren’t trading prospects for anyone on a short term deal. So, that rules Morton out.
As for their prospects the Braves are probably the last team I would ever trade with for a pitching prospect. They almost always flop as soon as they leave Atlanta.
Also, Kyle Muller was traded to Oakland as part of the Murphy trade.
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1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:
The Marlins have already said they're willing to trad a SP. They're so stacked it wouldn't even weaken their rotation. I think they're BY FAR our best fit trade partner wise. All the other possible #1s aren't going be available until mid season when teams start to re-evaluate their chances of making the playoffs.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/marlins-wont-trade-sandy-alcantara-open-to-other-offers.html
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I think he will need to put up another gold glove caliber season at SS before he is considered a true starting SS on a playoff contending team. His career OPS is .645 and while fast he doesn’t get on base much. He’s only 27 so he should still have some years left where he’s just as fast as he is now.
I think they’re better off keeping him and keep trying to improve his plate discipline. When he was on that heater last year the team was winning. Then when he came back to earth so did the team.
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Brewers, Marlins, and Guardians all are trying to make the playoffs so they aren’t going to trade those guys.
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He looked pretty good in that one start vs Seattle in 2009.
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37 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:
This is important, but for what? Isn't one win one win? Or does a 1 year 2B that does run prevention help get more future SPs? I'm struggling with the analytics of this one.
In terms of WAR? No, 1 WAR does not mean 1 team win.
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32 minutes ago, wildcard said:
So what I am reading is that many fans and sports writers think Elias and Co are a bunch of fools. I look at it another way.
I think most on the OH will think that the O's are Analytics oriented. So lets say that Sig did his analysis and thinks he knows why Frazier had a 799 OPS in 2021 and a 612 OPS in 2022. And Elias, Sig, Hyde and Fuller think they can fix him.
In that case his 305/368/411/779 may be able to be duplicated and is worth 8M. It probably makes him a #2 hitter hitting in front of run producers Adley, Gunnar, Santander etc.
I think in general fans and media are too hung up on Frazier being a 2nd baseman. I read he plays LF and RF well. That conflicts with the idea that he is slow. I don't know what to think about that.
But what are the odds that Hays come out of ST healthy. I would put it at 50/50. That's been his history. He is 100% healthy and performing well about half the time.
In 2021 Frazier hit 317/378/412/790 vs righthanded pitching. Hays career average vs righties is 252/306/421/727 vs right-handed pitching. Hays career average vs lefty is 268/317/460/777. Sounds like there might be a platoon there.
All this happening might not be likely but it might be more likely than thinking Elias and Co are fools.
Based on WAR if he just does what he did last year he will be worth $8m.
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32 minutes ago, wildcard said:
So what I am reading is that many fans and sports writers think Elias and Co are a bunch of fools. I look at it another way.
I think most on the OH will think that the O's are Analytics oriented. So lets say that Sig did his analysis and thinks he knows why Frazier had a 799 OPS in 2021 and a 612 OPS in 2022. And Elias, Sig, Hyde and Fuller think they can fix him.
In that case his 305/368/411/779 may be able to be duplicated and is worth 8M. It probably makes him a #2 hitter hitting in front of run producers Adley, Gunnar, Santander etc.
I think in general fans and media are too hung up on Frazier being a 2nd baseman. I read he plays LF and RF well. That conflicts with the idea that he is slow. I don't know what to think about that.
But what are the odds that Hays come out of ST healthy. I would put it at 50/50. That's been his history. He is 100% healthy and performing well about half the time.
In 2021 Frazier hit 317/378/412/790 vs righthanded pitching. Hays career average vs righties is 252/306/421/727 vs right-handed pitching. Hays career average vs lefty is 268/317/460/777. Sounds like there might be a platoon there.
All this happening might not be likely but it might be more likely than thinking Elias and Co are fools.
Based on WAR if he just does what he did last year he will be worth $8m.
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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I think Frazier is probably the best defensive 2B of that group. I’m getting the impression that the O’s value defense pretty highly.
Yeah, seems as if run prevention is their go to when deciding on players at this point. Tampa Bay has always been a big run prevention team and it’s worked out well for them.
Orioles sign Mychal Givens
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Not offended at all. I just asked you to cite your sources. Based on your temper tantrum response you don’t have any. What an embarrassing response from a grown man.