DrungoHazewood

It's unfortunate to remember someone for their worst moments, but when someone mentions Chris Ray my mind flashes to the MDM before they finish "Ray". That was in the era when my kids were just being born and I clung to the single guy notion of trying to watch almost every game. After the MDM I didn't turn on the O's for probably two weeks.

Perhaps they should have let him take batting practice with Home Run Derby balls and surmised that one day those would be used in the Majors.

The Orioles signed Jake Arrieta in 2007 and traded him in mid-2013. Six years is "so fast"? Arrieta was traded in 2013, at the age of 27, after allowing 42 baserunners and 19 runs in 23 innings. After a 2012 where he had a 6.20 ERA in 114 innings. Following a 2011 where he had a 5.05 in 119 innings. 69 MLB games and 358 innings of a 5.46 isn't enough for you? Then how about a 4.02 ERA in Norfolk at 26, back when Harbor Park was one of the best pitcher's environments in baseball? Or then a 4.41 in AAA Norfolk in 49 innings at 27? Over his last 200-odd innings with the Orioles he was giving up runs at an Gabriel Ynoa or Aaron Brooks rate.

Weird aside, but prior to about 1920 or 1930 third basemen and second basemen were kind of switched. Second basemen were often bigger guys who were valued more for hitting than glove. Third basemen were seen as defense-first players whose primary responsibility was to be agile and handle the endless bunts coming their way. I think Nap Lajoie was built more like Schoop than Altuve (at least for his era).

I assume it's all about the double play pivot, the quick transfer from catch to throwing to a base behind you, and the fact your back is usually to the baserunner while waiting for the throw. The shortstop almost always has the play in front of him, and is coming across the bag.

I don't disagree, but Schoop has a third baseman's arm. He probably had one of the better second baseman's arms I've seen. Mountcastle doesn't, and he's never played second. It just seems unlikely.

They got him for free. He was worth a win less than replacement. If you have to go with someone of Smith's caliber and you find yourself without one you just look at the waiver wire a week before spring training is over. This is like fretting over whether Aaron Brooks will pass through waivers. If he doesn't just go find another guy with a 6.00 ERA. Every org has 17 of them.

Sunscreen, he needed some sunscreen. Very fair skin, and he's outside all day. I hear Bullfrog works well.

I call this Earl's Rule For Constructing a Roster: What do you do better than the others? If you can't answer that, if you can't define your role outside of "we needed a guy to sit on the bench" you shouldn't be here. Benny Ayala could hit lefties. Jim Dwyer could pinch hit and hit righties. John Shelby had a plus glove and arm. Todd Cruz was seen as a plus third baseman, even if he couldn't hit. Kiko Garcia could play three positions reasonably well. What does Dwight Smith Jr do? He's below average in everything. I don't see a way to leverage his abilities and get a plus.

One of my favorite books is Randall Munroe's What If? Serious Scientific Answers to Absurd Hypothetical Questions. So please indulge me... 1. Submariners throw a fastball with topspin, not backspin, so any spin they impart to the ball would result in extra sink. 2. Any ball that reaches the plate higher than release point would have to be thrown at an angle and velocity that would counteract the force of gravity pulling the ball down, plus/minus any spin-related aerodynamic effects. In other words you'd have to throw it up, higher than level. 3. If Bradford threw a ball at 120 ft/sec (about 82 mph), it left his hand 18" above plate altitude, and he threw it upwards at 2.5 degrees, it would cross the plate about half a second later at a height of... well.. it would it hit the plate. Ignoring the topspin, which would cause it to bounce in front of the plate. So... he'd have to throw it at more than a 2.5 degree angle. Probably like 3.5 degrees. So maybe 20' into its flight it would be 2.3 feet above field level (AFL), and would sink from there. If he wanted the ball to hit the catcher's mitt at more than 18" AFL he'd have to throw it with a launch angle of more like five or six degrees. 4. If a pitcher could throw a perfect knuckleball with no spin whatsoever, at 65mph, releasing 8' from the ground, it could be released at a dead-even 0 degrees relative to the field and it would hit the catcher's mitt just above the ground. 5. In a weird coincidence of units, a ball thrown with no aerodynamic lift/sink will travel about 100 feet for each 100 miles per hour it's thrown, if it's released 8' from the ground at zero degrees from level. So a ball thrown 100 mph from a mound would hit the bottom of the backstop if it was 100 feet away (actually 103, but close enough). If you threw the ball 500 mph it would it a backstop 500 feet away, give or take. 1000 mph, 1000 ft. 20,000 mph, the ball would be incinerated by the friction of the air hitting it at 20,000 mph. .8c would result in a small thermonuclear explosion (see book referenced in first sentence).

Does anyone know how? And what are the practical effects of this? Does that result in a meaningful amount of "rise"? And I guess just as important: is that repeatable? How consistent is fastball spin? Can I set a record for most questions in one paragraph? Edit: Some of my questions answered here: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/11/spin-rate-what-we-know-now/. (Sorry, browser suddenly decided to not like embedding links).

I guess "Rise" sounds cooler than "Sinks Less". Since physics and human ability means no fastball thrown from mound 60' away will actually rise due to its backspin and Magnus force lift.

If he had gotten 600 PAs and continued to hit homers at the same rate he would have ended up with 20 homers. In a year where an average MLB player hit 22 homers per 600 PAs. Being slightly below average in HR rate is Smith's most positive attribute. Zack Greinke had a higher homer rate than Smith. He hit homers less frequently than Keon Broxton, or Chance Sisco, or Austin Hayes, or Chris Davis, or Pedro Severino. He was about on par with Stevie Wilkerson and Rio Ruiz.

I don't have any insight into the Orioles' decisions and processes, but Mountcastle is 6' 3". Here's a complete list of all players 6' 3" or taller who've played 500+ games at second in major league history: Ben Zobrist, DJ LeMahieu, Neil Walker, Mike Andrews, Don Kolloway. Maybe this is a unfounded prejudice based on old information. Probably it's because second basemen are selected in part for their quickness, agility and footwork around the bag while turning the double play. Most players 6' 3" or taller aren't know for their ballerina-like moves. I'd at least entertain the idea that with the newer rules against takeout slides maybe teams would rethink the prioritization of agility in a second baseman. But I still doubt the Orioles want to experiment with maybe their best hitting prospect getting his legs swept at a position he has never played as a pro. (Edit: RC Gonzales and Ryan Flaherty are both 6' 3", so it looks like having a very tall second baseman could be key to having an out-of-nowhere Cinderella season in Baltimore)

That was more of a vague approximation. But I don't really like the idea of signing a pretty good player into his early-to-mid 30s at free agent rates. Maybe it's Brian Roberts.

I'd almost forgotten that people had been discussing non-tendering him. With him putting in about a four-win season that seems silly. He has quite a bit of positive value. You could trade him for something, even if it's not a haul.

It doesn't really matter, because Villar will likely be in need of replacement in 2022 or 2023. A 2-3 win (four on the outside) player at 28 is probably a 1-2 win player at 31 or 32. That doesn't push you into contention, you still need to find others to do that.

So he should bring in a decent return in a trade. Even if it's just for one year of him at 3rd year arb prices.

I think he's traded, too. Villar turns 29 in May, and is a free agent in a year. I have my doubts that Elias is going to try to sign a pretty good second baseman to a long-term deal into his 30s. Especially not when competing in 2021 still seems like a stretch. The 2019 Orioles are about 400 runs short of being a contender. They need about 11 pitchers and 3-4 position players.

86 OPS+, -10 outs above average by Statcast in a little over half-time play. About to turn 27. And a very large part of what value he had came from 10 homers in April and May. I have my doubts that he makes it through the winter on the roster. He just doesn't do anything above-average.

There are 11 managers in all history with 2000+ wins. Four of the 11 (36%) are/were active in the 2010s. If anything it seems like 2000-win managers have become more likely recently. Also, Terry Francona is only 3-4 good years from 2000. Mike Scioscia is nearly tied with Francona, each about 100 wins ahead of Buck. If all three of those guys were to get there we'd have 50% of all 2000-win managers active in about a 15-year period.

I think Diaz is promoted more quickly because he's basically the same age as Mountcastle. He'll be playing next year at 23, Mountcastle spent his AAA year at 22.

Most of the board seems to think Diaz will be in the majors to stay in early 2020. This year he was one of the better hitters on the BaySox and has never had a AAA at bat. It wouldn't surprise me if he got fewer than 100 PAs in the majors next year.

Or they could just change the rules so that the year where you make your debut is your rookie year, all stop. Cal would have been a rookie in '81, so Wade Boggs wins ROY in '82. Olson would have been an '88 rookie, so Griffey wins in '89. Bumbry loses his to Pedro Garcia. Ron Hansen loses his to fellow Oriole Chuck Estrada, so at least someone can feel bad. Eddie didn't get a callup in '76 despite OPSing '921 at AAA, so he can keep his. But at least we can focus on his disgruntled exit to LA.

Kind of. He slipped from MVP candidate to average first baseman right around 30 or 31. Driven mostly by ever-worsening numbers against lefties. In his 30s he was mostly a platoon player. In '74, his last year with the O's he only had 47 PAs against lefties and a .591 OPS. Had a very solid year with the Indians at 33, but even then hit .220 with a .753 OPS vs. Lefties. His last season was roughly 50 pinch hitting appearances for the Dodgers at 35.