DrungoHazewood
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Posts posted by DrungoHazewood
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Adley was a nearly finished product when picked, if not for tradition and service time stuff he could have been in the majors shortly after he left college. Gunnar needed 1000+ minor league plate appearances as a high school pick.
Ask this same question about the 1990-2017 Orioles with their development system. They certainly could have found a way to screw up Gunnar, would have been harder with Adley.
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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Cool, I guess.
I think he'd be better served learning how to be the emergency catcher.
If we're talking about doing things with low likelihood of success and minimal utility they could see if he could become a serviceable AAA 5th starter.
Will be interesting to see if he can violate the axiom that rightward shifts on the defensive spectrum rarely work. The only two cases off hand I can think of where a full-time OF moved to 2B/SS and succeeded were Betts and Honus. And that truly weird Mickey Stanley experiment where Mayo Smith took his starting CF and moved him to shortstop just in time for the postseason and they won the WS with him there.
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15 hours ago, Malike said:
I don't know if there is any evidence that a manager getting tossed, actually results in a better outcome than managing the game. I'm sure there is somewhere @DrungoHazewood or @Frobby would probably know.
No clue. My guess is that if there's any effect at all, it's that getting kicked out is pretty highly correlated to currently losing the game (you don't argue as much if you're winning). And most teams that are losing at some point in the game eventually lose.
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I don't really have a strong opinion on the original question beyond what typical projection systems and MLEs would say.
But it is kind of funny that you could go back through threads from 2, 3, 4 months ago and there would be no shortage of people wondering if either of these guys was going to ever establish themselves as solid MLB regulars.
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16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
Roy Thomas -> 150 lbs powder keg! Even Ced has him by 25 lbs.
Different times. The Champion 1894 Orioles averaged about 165-170 pounds a man, and Big Dan Brouthers weighed in at 207. At least according to bb-ref.
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13 hours ago, Hallas said:
The fact that Chris Davis had multiple years with a BB% over 11% tells you all you need to know about how correlated plate discipline is with BB%.
If we're going to use n=1 samples, I see your Chris Davis and raise you a Roy Thomas.
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21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
That hadn't been done in over 30 years!
It was easier to do when there were fewer teams. We should start counting triple crowns in just AL teams east of the Mississippi and north of Tennessee. I mean, when Ty Cobb was doing it he only had to beat the dudes on seven other teams.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Have the same poll up on twitter.
So far, with 79 votes, it’s 51% under , 49% over.
So, OH i more pessimistic so far.
Surprising result to me.
Knowing Twitter I'm surprised it's not 90-10 under. Isn't purpose of Twitter to convince us that the world has already ended and we're all too stupid to notice?
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A good poll would be who's going to have more value for the rest of 2024: Cowser or Holliday?
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3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
You not getting weak kneed at a triple crown is disappointing, WAR guy.
Ohh, look, he led an arbitrary subset of the the 30 MLB teams in some old-timey stats!
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1 hour ago, Fiver6565 said:
To be clear, I don't think he's going to get sent down. But the reality is he will need to pick up the pace relatively significantly to even get to the Cal bar. He's on pace for 5 or 6-for-104 right now, with a million K's in there. Again, not saying that will continue, I highly doubt it does. I'm just curious HOW bad it would have to get before they'd send him down.
I also don't think he's necessarily shown that he's mastered AAA pitching, as someone else posited. He's hit well there but it wasn't a lot of games, and half the ones from this year were against a team that seems it shouldn't even be in AAA its so bad. I'd be curious how far his stats would have dropped in AAA if he'd stayed, the way the rest of the guys have evened off.
All of which is to say, he's here, and I am pretty confident he's staying almost regardless, but I am curious where the line for breaching that 'almost' is.
But he's not on pace to go 6-for-104. He's expected to post something like a .800 OPS, so he's on pace to do (whatever he's done so far) and another 70-odd PAs of something much better than that.
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Haven't gamed in the last 25 years or keep up on modern entertainment trends eh?
Hey, I'm as into Taylor Swift as any 52-year-old white guy who doesn't know a single Taylor Swift song.
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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:
My, that is pedantic. Multiplying by nine is much easier and more fun than doing all that boring stuff.
It also has the unfortunate downside of not projecting the Orioles to win 108 games, like your Times Nine model.
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
They say War never changes but it seems to me they re-calibrate it every few years.
Who are these people who supposedly say WAR never changes? And why are you listening to them?
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2 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:
Worst case scenario, what is the number of at bats that would force them to make a decision on sending him back down? Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but what would it truly take? 3 for 100 or something nuts like that?
Cal started his career 14-for-104 (.135) and didn't get sent down.
Of course he didn't have to deal with social media and 24/7 talk radio goons yelling incessantly about how a brief rough patch means we should question the foundations of western civilization.
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2 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:
Well there’s a big difference between a good fielding SS and an average fielding 2nd baseman when it comes to WAR. Unless you think Holliday is elite at 2B. I’m not so sure about that yet.
The difference between a +0 average 2B and a +5 SS is 10 runs, or one win.
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1 minute ago, spleen1015 said:
Yeah baby! Colton Fred Cowser Lynn!
Of course Cowser's rest-of-the-season ZIPs forecast is for 1.7 WAR, for a total of 2.9. I could be convinced that's under-selling him. But it's almost certainly more realistic than 10.
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4 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
Thanks. I think my math is off somewhere.
Replacement level is typically set at a .294 winning percentage, or 47-48 wins. And I certainly wouldn't just mulitiply 6.2 x 9 to get the full season projection.
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1 minute ago, spleen1015 said:
Does Cowser win ROY with 9.9 rWAR?
He'd be in the running for unanimous MVP. Mike Trout in 2012 is the only rookie to ever have gotten to 10 rWAR, and he didn't win the MVP only becuase a bunch of writers got all weak-kneed about Cabrera's triple crown. 2nd in all time rookie WAR is Dick Allen's 8.8 in '64, followed by Judge's 8.0 in '17.
Fred Lynn won the MVP and ROY in '75 with a 7.4-win season.
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1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
So, what's our total team WAR now and what does it project to?
A reasonable opening day projection for the Orioles was probably 92ish wins, or about 44 WAR. Starting 12-6 you could reasonably assume that their EOY projection is something like 93 or 94 wins.
Baseball reference says the team WAR is currently 6.2. So that would work out to something in the neighborhood of 40 for the rest of the schedule.
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19 minutes ago, Hallas said:
Just my 2 cents, but I like the 1/9. The 10-game intervals was a little too frequent, but 18 games seems like a decent enough sample size to get some rough trends.
Friendly reminder that even the quickest numbers to show significance like strikeout and FB rates take 60-100 at bats to become more signal than noise. And things like SLG and OBP take the better part of half a season before you can start trusting them. Batting average is well over the number of PAs anyone has ever gotten in a season.
Drungo's First Rule (or at least some rule of mine): Never trust anything before Memorial Day. And don't get too comfortable until well after July 4th.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
The season is exactly 1/9 over, so you can just multiply any cumulative stat by 9 to see how it projects over a full season. That results in the O’s protecting to 108 wins, scoring 936 runs (+129 over last year) while allowing 693 (+15 over last year).
On an individual level:
Gunnar 117 runs, 135 RBI, 54 HR, 8.1 rWAR
Westburg 99 runs, 126 RBI, 36 HR, 9.0 rWAR
Mullins 126 runs, 135 RBI, 45 HR, 8.1 rWAR
Santander 99 runs, 135 RBI, 36 HR, -0.9 rWAR (!)
Cowser 72 runs, 135 RBI, 36 HR, 9.9 rWAR
Mountcastle and O’Hearn also are projecting out to 6.3 rWAR, and Adley 4.5.
Some folks may remember that last year I posted a thread where I was tracking WAR and other stats every 18 games. Going back, we never had an offensive segment last season with as many good performances as this last one. (I am planning a similar thread this season, but in 27 game segments, as 18 just seemed a little too frequent.)
I'll be the pedantic one and point out that it's not really a projection to multiply 1/9th of the season by nine and come up with a full season's performance. Because 1/9th of the season is almost certainly not representative of the talent or expected performance of the players in question.
To get a true projection you should take a little less than 8/9ths of your preseason projection, add in what they've done since opening day, and then toss in the little bit of additional knowledge we've gotten from the past 18 games.
If you thought Jordan Westburg was a 2.5-win player on opening day, it's probably reasonable to think he's a 2.7 win player today.
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1 hour ago, Malike said:
Was listening to someone on the radio, can't quite recall who it was who suggested deadening the ball to like the late 80's level. Guys like Judge would still hit HR's but 5'8" 2B would probably not be hitting 35 HR's a year. He posited it could help pitchers from having to think they need to throw 100 and would open the door for contact hitters who don't have big power to be valuable in the game. I'm sure it wouldn't be the sexy option, chicks dig the long ball.
I think the issue will always be that throwing 89 with an okay slider means Rich Dauer hits .256 with 8 homers, and throwing 100 with a wipeout sweeper means Rich Dauer hits .221 with 4 homers. Pitchers will almost always take .221 with 4 homers because hurt means you're rehabbing, bad means you're selling insurance.
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22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Deadening the ball so pitchers can actually pitch to contact will push against max velo/spin.
I think teams will stash an extra pinch hitter before they'd change their pitcher usage.
I think no matter what solutions are attempted, it's going to be vexingly hard to fix because most pitchers will continue to throw as hard and with as much break as possible to get more outs. Even if the ball is dead, throwing hard and with max spin will mean your ERA is 2.00 instead of 3.00.
Half joking, but blame all this on the decision in 1884 to legalize overhand pitching. I suppose this is anecdotal, but underhand pitchers don't seem to get hurt at nearly the rate of overhand. Today's women's college softball pitchers' numbers look like Walter Johnson or Kid Nichols.
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Colton Cowser 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I always thought that if you weren't around 10:1 you weren't trying hard enough.