AZRon
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Posts posted by AZRon
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48 minutes ago, Dale said:
PROCEDURE FOR AWARDING OF WAIVER CLAIMS (TYPE OF WAIVERS):
Per Arizona Phil
https://www.thecubreporter.com/awarding-waiver-claims
If a player is claimed by only one club, that club is awarded the claim. If more than one club makes a claim, the club with the lowest winning percentage (regardless of league) either from the previous season (beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season through the 30th day of the MLB regular season) or on the day the player clears waivers (beginning on the 31st day of the MLB regular season through the last day of the MLB regular season) is awarded the claim. If two clubs with the same winning percentage make a claim, the club in the player's own league is awarded the claim. If two clubs from the same league make a claim and they are tied in the standings, the club with the lowest winning percentage from the previous season is awarded the claim. If the clubs are still tied, standings from two years back (or three years back, four years back, etc) are used to break the tie.Looks like we need a tiebreaker!
OK -- your source was current; mine was not. The rule was modified as of 2019. Thanks
https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/MajorLeagueRules.pdf
Per Rule 10(c):(3) Assignment of Player. If a waiver claim is made, the contract shall be assigned in the following manner:
(A) If only one claim is entered, assignment shall be made to that claiming Club.
(B) If more than one Club makes a claim, assignment shall be to the Club with the lowest winning percentage among the claiming Clubs, without regard to the League of the claiming Clubs.
During the first 30 days of a championship season (as determined by the date of the first game scheduled for either Major League in that season, excluding international openers), percentages of games won at the close of the preceding championship season, without regard to post-season results, shall be used instead of the current championship season percentages of games won. At all other times during the championship season, percentages of games won shall be based on the result of play through the date prior to the expiration of the claiming period.
During the off-season, the final percentages of games won at the close of the last preceding championship season shall control, without regard to post-season results.
If two or more claiming Clubs are tied with the lowest percentage of games won, the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee shall make the award
(i) to the tied Club that is in the same League as the Club making the waiver request; or,
(ii) if the tied Clubs are in the same League, then to the tied Club with the lower percentage of games won at the close of the prior championship season, without regard to post-season results. If the tied Clubs had an identical percentage of games won at the close of the preceding championship season, the award shall be made to the tied Club with the lower percentage of games won in the next prior championship season, without regard to post-season results, with any remaining ties resolved by continuing to examine the tied Clubs’ respective championship season winning percentages in each preceding prior year, until the tie is broken -
7 hours ago, Dale said:
We have waiver priority in the NL too; the tiebreaker is winning percentage regardless of league
Per Rob Neyer, here are the rules on "waiver priority":
"....If the club doesn't withdraw the waiver request, the player's contract is assigned in the following manner:
(A) If only one claim is entered, the player's contract is assigned to that claiming club.
(B) If more than one club in the same league makes claims, the club currently lower in the standings gets the player.
(C) If clubs in both leagues claim the player, preference shall always go to the club in the same league as the club requesting waivers.
There are other, more esoteric rules involved here. For example, during the first 30 days of the season, the previous season's final standings are used to determine claim order, rather than the current standings....."
http://assets.espn.go.com/mlb/s/transanctionsprimer.html-
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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:
I think I got what you need. Using these zones depicted in the photo below.
It is better to throw it 96mph or greater in the "heart" .311 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast).
Than it is to throw it 94mph or less in the "shadow" .322 wOBA (on all 4S fastballs of that location and velocity since the invent of statcast)
To answer your specific question, low and outside at 91 vs middle middle at 98
97-99 mph 4S fastballs in zone 5 on the chart above have a wOBA of .320
90-92 mph 4S fastballs in zone 19 (low and outside to RHB) vs RHB and zone 17 vs LHB (searched separately and averaged on a weighted basis) has a wOBA of .339
Luke-OH:
Thanks for posting this and your data source. I really appreciate the time and effort that you have expended in responding to my post.
Just to confirm: The zone chart depicted is from the catcher's perspective?
I'd like to gain some familiarity with the Statcast search facility so that I can follow your conclusions but it appears here that you have provided useful data to support your belief that "....velocity is the single biggest predictor of (pitching) success....."
Thanks again for responding to my posts.
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48 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t think it’s possible to make blanket conclusions like “velocity is more important than command” or vice versa. We’ve all seen failed pitchers who were in the top 5% on velocity but had no idea where the ball was going. And, we’ve seen plenty of low velocity, very good command guys who did well in the minors and then got blasted when major league hitters saw them. It’s a sliding scale, where the units of the scale may be narrower or wider at certain points on the scale. And, there are factors other than velocity and command that also play a role. So, to me it’s kind of a fruitless argument.
Of course, this issue is the "all else being equal" Gordian Knot when all else is never "equal"; but, that's a problem for the statistical elite.
However, an "intelligent discussion" with no conclusive "winner" can enlighten all participants and spectators.
I appreciate you contributions.
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
That is partly why I posted it here instead of in the MLB forum.
I see the velocity vs. command debate as something of a false choice, or at least, something that requires much more definition. For example, from the numbers I posted above, the advantage a pitcher gains between 92 and 95 is nowhere near as big as the advantage he gains between 95 and 98 or between 98 and 101. So it depends on the range we are talking about. Also, velocity is quantifiable, while command isn’t so much. So you can’t really do a statistical analysis.
Command can vary depending on type of pitch. One pitcher may have good fastball command but really can’t throw his curve for a strike. Another might have just average fastball command but also has command of a couple of offspeed pitches. So command really isn’t a one-dimensional thing.
Perhaps, when the "command" gun is invented or if/when the feature is added to Trackman/FlightScope/PitchGrader/RevFire by Rapsodo, etc., statistical analysis will demonstrate conclusively that overall pitch command is more important than velocity.
For now, it's sort of like belief systems where some "think" that if we don't/can't measure it isn't true and some "conclude" it's only true if it's in the current baseball bible.
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On 5/24/2019 at 5:07 PM, Luke-OH said:
@AZRon Here is a look at two pitchers who have had a variety of fastball velocities over the course of their careers, I selected them for this feature, the fact they both have pitched a good deal (larger sample), and that they have had similar velocity highs and lows. Also, I liked that they represent differences in the types of velocity variability. Cashner has lost velocity as he's aged. Verlander will vary his velocity in game based on the situation. I didn't look for examples who fit my argument, these were the only two I looked at. Both strongly show the same general trend despite being the same pitcher with the same delivery, command, secondary pitches (for the most part, I understand these change throughout one's career). Again, not an isolation of command to show the affect on results, but a clear idea that fastball velocity matters significantly.
Fastball Velo vs wOBA charts for Verlander and Cashner....
Here's Felix Hernandez, thought of him afterwards.
Fastball Velo vs wOBA chart for Hernandez....
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Luke-OH:Thanks for responding.
Again, I'm not disputing that, with some pitchers, "fastball velocity matters significantly". I am suggesting that, with all pitchers, command matters more.Do you have a chart or table (or any valid statistical data) that shows the wOBA for a large and varied sampling of MLB pitchers the wOBA for pitches by velocity in the middle of the plate versus those in the low/outside quadrant?
Or, how about 98 mph fastballs in the middle versus 91 mph fastballs versus those in the low outside quadrant?
You quoted Billy Eppler; I'll quote Ted Williams (who, I believe, is a greater authority on pitching; you'll note that his "first rule" does not include any reference to velocity):
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On 5/22/2019 at 11:00 PM, Luke-OH said:
Chart -- Fastball Velocity vs. wOBA 2019 ....
Chart -- Avg velocity vs FIP in 2018 ....And don't get me wrong, command, breaking ball, offspeed pitch quality, deception, pitchability are all important as well, but when you have someone like Billy Eppler stating this matter of factly, it's kind of hard to ignore.
“In running through this with analytics departments I have worked with over the last 14 years,” Eppler said, “velocity is the No. 1 predictor of success."
Thanks for responding.
I am not disputing that velocity can be integral to some pitchers' success. However, I believe that the most significant element in consistent pitching effectiveness at the MLB level is command. Of course, this is the "all else being equal" Gordian Knot when all else is never "equal"; but, that's a problem for the statistical elite.
The charts that you presented show that effectiveness increases with velocity. Can command be measured precisely and graphically rendered? Perhaps, if it could and similarly depicted, it would slope more sharply than velocity.
Further, those charts do not isolate for velocity. That is, there is no normalization for other pitching success factors.I understand that, for pitching evaluation purposes, fans will look to those characteristics that are currently being measured -- velocity, spin rate, movement, even pace. I would hope that studious professional evaluators (and pitching coaches and trainers) would be attentive to the long arc of MLB history and emphasize precise command as the most impactful contributor to pitching effectiveness.
I welcome any further contributions to this discussion.
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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm pretty sure we decided that velocity is the least important thing for a pitcher.
Everyone else seemed pretty adamant about it.
3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:You’re right, you don’t, there is hard data on your side.
3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:I purposely stayed out of that, I don’t have time to beat my head against the wall.
Luke-OH:
When you have time, I'd appreciate it if you would post that "hard data" that demonstrates that velocity is the most important characteristic in determining the effectiveness of an MLB pitcher. Thanks.
I believe that a pitcher with premium velocity (currently, 98+ mph) would require better than average command in order to be successful
while
a pitcher with less than average velocity (92.5 mph?) but premium command would be successful.
I also believe that a pitcher with less than average velocity, better than average command and premium pitch movement would
outperform
a pitcher with premium velocity, average command and average pitch movement.
Here's Miguel Castro's current zone chart:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=612434&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2019&endDate=01/01/2020 -
1 hour ago, baltfan said:
Dylan Bundy - I have never seen anyone who can through it down the middle better. Fastball - easy. Change - piece of cake. Curve - hang in there for it. Cutter - so glad they let him throw it now.
Are you being facetious?
or
like most of the current Oriole pitching staff, mistakenly conflating control with command? -
15 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I think the way these boxes break down don’t tell much of a story about command. First, they don’t distinguish a pitch that is 2-3 inches out of the strike zone (often a desirable result) from a pitch 18” out of the strike zone. Second, they don’t distinguish a strike that is 3” from the dead center of the plate from a strike that is 8” from the center of the plate. (The border of the center block is 2.83” from the center of the plate on either side.; the edge of the plate is 8.5” from the center.)
That's all true and a point well-made, but I will point out that the charts do show the percentage of pitches in the middle/middle, middle up and middle down of the plate. Staying out of those locations while throwing strikes and near-strikes to the 4 corners is the essence of command and essential to pitcher effectiveness.
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5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
This is like wondering which Wal-Mart cashier is the hottest.
Uhhh...Means? Sure, why not.
Does your analogy suggest that you believe the Orioles to be one of the (or the) worst teams in the MLB and Wal-Mart to be one of the (or the) most ethically bereft and morally bankrupt businesses based in the U.S.?
For the season to date, I agree that John Means has demonstrated the best command and is the O's most effective pitcher. Here's his zone chart from BrooksBaseball:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=607644&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2019&endDate=01/01/2020&gFilt=regular
Here's Bleier's chart from last year:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=542947&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&gFilt=regular&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2018&endDate=01/01/2019 -
Here are the pitchers on the current active roster:
Shawn Armstrong Paul Fry John Means
Richard Bleier Mychal Givens Dan Straily
Dylan Bundy David Hess Gabriel Ynoa
Andrew Cashner Branden Kline
Miguel Castro Josh LucasCommand is the ability to throw to specific spots into or out of the strike zone.
Assuming that he has fully recovered from his surgery and subsequent injury, I believe it is Richard Bleier.
If so, he will again prove to be the most effective pitcher on the Orioles' staff.
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On 5/20/2019 at 4:05 PM, Chavez Ravine said:
I too am a bit dubious that the distinction between control and command is a quantifiable thing you can use to differentiate pitchers...even to separate the immortal from the elite. A test would be to see if pitchers in a non game situation , but going all out as if it was, can consistently throw their best stuff to a specific tiny spot. But we don't have the luxury of an experiment, just lots of complex in game situations. I am dubious that even Schilling in his prime could hit a spot on command with his best "stuff" and do that over 7 innings, let alone a whole season. It seems more likely to me that if you ask prime Schilling to throw a low and away fastball he did it more or less (most innings on most starts for a stretch of years)...unlike lots and lots of other pitchers. On the other side, are there really pitchers that can't consistently hit a spot but can throw strikes? As the article seems to point out the K/BB ratio seems to measure a whole bunch of unrelated things....like how many balls Maddox got the umpire to call strikes for him.
Baseball Prospectus has made a stab at it with "CSAA" (Called Strikes Above Average):
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31022/prospectus-feature-command-and-control/-
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1 hour ago, Hallas said:
"....But I would probably go with velo followed by control/command (they sort of seem like the same thing.)
56 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:Command
Movement
Velocity
Here's how I would rank the pitching characteristics in importance:
1. Command
2. Pitch movement
3. Control
4. Spin rate
5. Velocity
My opinion is based both on personal amateur experience and watching the professional game over many years.
I've paid special attention:
to the success of effective MLB knuckle-ball pitchers and effective MLB pitchers with less than average fastball velocity;
and
to the failure of pitchers at the MLB level with average to better to best fastball velocity but lacking command
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1 hour ago, Hallas said:
"....There are also a lot of difficult-to-quantify things here. Such as ability to sell a changeup....."
Good point, you could add "consistency of arm speed" on different pitch types as a ranking characteristic. However, I think (even at the MLB level) arm speed differential has to be sizable to be detected by the hitter.
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50 minutes ago, Hallas said:
"....Pitch movement and spin rate are almost the same thing....."
Not quite.
Here's a useful article:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-top-staffs-have-come-around-on-the-high-spin-fastball/While the rate of spin may affect movement, the direction and amount of movement are affected by release point, finger placement on the ball, finger pressure, and force of the throw.
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8 minutes ago, Hallas said:
What's the difference between control and command?.....
Control is the ability to throw strikes.
Command is the ability to throw to specific spots into or out of the strike zone.One could argue that a pitcher could demonstrate control without command
but,
it's difficult to comprehend a case of pitcher with command but lacking control.-
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https://medium.com/@jeremylehrman/whos-in-command-here-8ed547d9dc7f
I found this interesting.
Given the current MLB environment for pitchers, how would you rate the importance of the following pitching characteristics?:
(Does the relative importance differ for starters versus relievers?)
Velocity
Pitch movement
Spin rate
Control
Command -
On 3/25/2019 at 8:26 AM, jabba72 said:
Weeks for a mild sprain is still kind of rough. I dont know how you stop hand injuries from sliding until you go feet first.
Is a feet first slide really safer?
https://www.mlb.com/news/miguel-sano-injured-sliding-into-second-base-c293338666
https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-injury-updates"....Nick Senzel, Reds
Cincinnati's top prospect -- and MLB's Pipeline's No. 6 overall -- left a Minor League game Monday with a right ankle injury he suffered while sliding into second base.After a source told MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal that X-rays on Senzel's ankle came back negative, the club announced Tuesday the 23-year-old will be in a boot for the next week or two as part of the recovery process. He is expected to need several more weeks after that to be able to return to game action."
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Why aren't all players in the organization required to wear sliding mitts on both hands?-
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6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:
First time on 40 man roster, the minor league salary is $44,500.
Just to pick a nit
, the minimum minor league 2019 salary (per the current CBA) for players on the 40-man for the first time is $45,300.
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2 hours ago, Going Underground said:
Vice president of baseball operations Brady Anderson, part of the five-member contingent that attended the Oct. 3 showcase at Marlins Park, took the lead in negotiations with agent Barry Praver of Magnus Sports.
The following is from the Orioles 2018 Media Guide. I don't see any reference to player recruitment in the description of his duties:
BRADY ANDERSON - VICE PRESIDENT, BASEBALL OPERATIONS
Brady Anderson was named Vice President of Baseball Operations in February of 2013. In his role, he collaborates with Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter on player development and roster management while overseeing strength and conditioning training and nutrition for the club. He began consulting with the Orioles on hitting instruction and strength and conditioning training in 2010 before joining the team as Special Assistant to the Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations in 2012...."
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
No argument from me. I think Givens and Castro are both kind of spent. I'd use them sparingly from here. I thought Buck left Castro in two batters too long last night.
They're working on their TTTP
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I resurrected a couple of my earlier posts (see below) to support my belief that MLB baseball would be a fairer game if the calling of balls and strikes were automated
Automation?
3D Strike Zone-
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7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
You can have any opinion you like, but go ahead and tell us about all the impact major league talent Rajsich has drafted. Tell me about all the major league ready starters in the system? Tell me about one everyday shortstop prospect in the system.....
My recollection is that Tony also had an unfavorable view of Joe Jordan's performance. Is that correct?
In any event, I'd like to compare Gary Rajsich's results as the O's scouting director to those of his peers.
I would appreciate recommendations on how such a comparison be done?
My thought is to review each draft round and to evaluate the status of all draft picks subsequent to the O's selection and prior to the Orioles next pick. Ex: in 2012, the O's picked Gausman in the 1st round at #4. I would compare Gausman's performance to that of all draft picks from round 1 pick #5 through round 2, pick #4. The Orioles had the 5th pick in round 2 (an unbelievable #65 in the draft).
Thoughts please.
The Defense Thread, 2019
in Orioles Talk
Posted
https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-baltimore-orioles
Per Roster Resource, Dwight Smith has 1 option remaining.