Answerman

Okay friends...we all knew this day was coming. Our farm is producing more talent than we can employ at the MLB level. At some point, and that point may be now for a few of these guys, we have to decide which to keep and which to trade. A wonderful problem to have. Two points we can all agree on: 1) Our window is wide open; and 2) We could use another good starter and at least one more good reliever (and nobody on the farm is banging down the door). With that in mind, here are my thoughts on some of our top position prospects. Would love to see yours. - Kjerstad - Keep - Santander is gone next year and he is plug and play ready. Frankly, I'd like to see him up this year. - Norby - Trade - Nice player, but I don't see a realistic path to him being a starter in Baltimore. His value will never be higher than current. - Stowers - Trade - Could possibly see him as a fourth OF, but he probably has more value starting for another organization. - Basallo - Keep - No rush to get him to Baltimore. He can replace Adley some day, or Mounty, or O'Hearn, but we have another year or two to decide. - Mayo - Trade - I am probably on an island here, but I think Westburg is our 3B for the next six years. I'm open to trading Mounty and replacing with Mayo (personally, I think they are the same player), but doubtful we do that in what should be another playoff season. Mayo can be the feature in a deal for a very good pitcher (thinking Luzardo). - Beavers - Trade - No room at the inn. - Horvath - Trade - Simply in the wrong organization. Thoughts?

I'm enjoying this dialog...some say Hays has little/no value, others say we need to get something "better than Scott" for him. Ultimately, I think the lineup is better with Kerstad in it instead of Hays. However, if that means only getting 70 cents on the dollar in a trade, is it still something we should pursue? Interesting question. One we may have to some day answer about Mountcastle (to make room for Mayo/Basallo).

Honestly, I don't think this conversation should be centered on how Hays is playing, and whether a stint in Norfolk would be helpful. I really think he is a very good player, and given regular starts in LF would return him to his usual self. No, the bigger issue is, even at his usual self, we have better outfielders who are ready to come up and play in Baltimore now...and we need room both on the roster and in the lineup. Somebody has to go to make this happen. Is it Hays? Is it Mullens? Is it Santander? I think Cowser will soon show us he doesn't need to be platooned. In fact, maybe a Hays/Mullens platoon in CF would be more productive. Just a thought.

We have got to find room for another outfielder to come up from Norfolk...I think Kerstad before Stowers (though both have earned it). How do we make room? We have to trade away one of our vets. At this point, I think we keep Mullins and trade one of the corners. However, with Santander being on the last year of his contract, he might be harder to move to a low payroll team. So, I conclude that Hays is the guy we should shop. After all, he has four decent tools (and batting average isn't typically horrible), plays the game the right way, is by all accounts a great clubhouse guy, AND, for what it is worth, he was the starting LF in last year's all-star game (doesn't mean anything, but easier for the acquiring GM to sell). Surely, there is a team that would pony up a decent reliever for Austin, no? Here are a few thoughts: Target 1: Marlins - Tanner Scott. Why does MLB's worst team need a good bullpen pitcher on an expiring contract? At least Hays would give them an everyday bat for this year and next. Target 2: Pirates - David Bednar. Bucs are for real, and so far Bednar has been awful. Assuming he is not hurt, we can bet he will get it together. We would have to add a prospect or two (Norby/Beavers?) to make it happen, but a typical Bednar would be worth the cost and has this year plus two more (I think) remaining on his contract. Target 3: Angels - Matt Moore and Andrew Wantz. Moore is a solid bullpen guy who has seen it all. Can still get guys out. Wantz is a AAA reliever who can come up in a pinch (also childhood friends with my daughter, so that's fun for us!). Your preferred targets...What say ye?

POSITIVE - John Rhodes...Wow. Dude is built like a linebacker. Hit HRs in consecutive innings against Braves. I realize he's buried behind a long list of potential MLBers, but way to make an impression. - Really enjoyed watching Urias play defense. So smooth. Perfect throws. Professional habits. - Wells was striking out batters and staying mostly in the low 90s. Hoping he creeps up to 95-97. - Holliday seems to have quite the advanced eye at the plate. Disciplined hitter. Still has a ways to go, obviously, to reach potential, but I can see why the hype. - Mateo was very smooth in the OF. - Mayo had four hits yesterday (but got lucky with a couple bloopers). - Nice work by Akin and Baumann - Colton Wong was spraying line drives and flashing legit defense. NEGATIVE - I am convinced we cannot win a championship with this pitching staff, and the bullpen cannot bail them out like last year. Burnes was bad, though I trust he will be fine when it counts. Cano got lit up. Kimbrell looked very average. We will miss Felix more than we think. I expect some very tough 9th inning losses. (Please trade Stowers for an arm!). - While Mateo looked good when I was there, I fear he will get more playing time than his career numbers suggest he should. - The fact that Cowser and Kjerstad traveled today, and O'Hearn and Mateo started in the corner OF spots, makes me wonder if Hyde wants to keep those platoon-level vets over the hotshot rookies.

Offer Hayes and Norby to Pittsburgh for Bednar. Who says no?

I'd gladly substitute Mountcastle for Mayo, but I don't think that would entice the Marlins - or would it?

Okay...Just Regular makes a very good point. Looks like Scott will not be a throw in. So let's take him out. Do we get our starting pitcher for that package? Luzardo - Mayo, Beavers, Norby, Mateo Now who says no? Are we getting close to a deal?

Well...good question. I guess they might consider it because the top prospect is like nobody they have had in many years (and a local kid), the "utility infielder" immediately and cheaply upgrades their shortstop position, and the other two prospects are fairly highly pedigreed and looking like they have a legit shot at major league careers. If one of them lands, it will provide them six years of cheap production - important for this franchise. Also, they have two more "Graysons" already in their starting rotation, a Cy Younger coming back in another year, and pitching prospects making their way through the system. And the inconsistent (but effective) reliever will be walking in a year.

Okay...you guys convinced me my trade is not so sensible for the Marlins. So let's go big: Marlins get Mateo, Norby, Mayo and Beavers O's get Luzardo and Scott The only one we are sending that seems likely to start for us is Mayo. Marlins new GM could look pretty good getting four pieces. Who says no?

I’m not a Mateo apologist, but to his credit he does play gold glove level defense, multiple positions, led the league in steals and can hit the long ball. He just can’t get on base (I know!). I might throw in Wagner or Fabian just because I see no path for them in our organization. But wouldn’t trade Norby for one year or Tanner.

If this has already been suggested, then please pardon my late arrival to the party. With our logjam of infielders, and the Marlins apparent need for a shortstop, why not offer Mateo for Tanner Scott. I believe both are entering their final year before free agency, so not a long term solution for either club. A hard throwing (albeit erratic at times) lefty would be a good get for a guy that probably won’t get 200 ABs for us. Money should be close to a wash. Who says no?

Surely, I will be on an island with this one, but I would strongly consider sending Mayo, Norby, Beavers and Horvath (if they want to sub in Fabian, etc. that's cool) for Braxton Garrett and Tanner Scott. Four hitters for two pitchers. We'd essentially be trading six years of Mayo for five years of Garrett. Scott would be a nice addition, but only for one year as he will be a UFA after next season. Would Miami take that deal? If they want to win now, I'm happy to start the conversation with Mountcastle and Hays, but I suspect they prefer the prospects. If three of those four guys become major league regulars, Miami will have done well.

I'd like to see Hays go to Pittsburgh for Bednar. I'm happy to throw in a prospect like Norby (who has no path with the O's) to make it happen. Gotta think Pittsburgh could use a good all around player like Hays with years of cheap control remaining, along with a mlb-ready prospect. Works for us because Bednar is an elite reliever and we have too many reclamation projects.

I hear you guys...those are excellent points. However, let's say we had a lock down releiver like Bednar on our team (imagine how helpful that would have been in this Tampa series!). If we were debating whose production could be most easily replaced - Hays or Bednar - with the players we have in the organization, I kinda think the answer might be Austin's. I realize this won't change anyone's mind, but I am very concerned about our pitching. If we have a starter go down, or maybe Wells/Kramer can't get out of the fourth inning in a playoff game, I don't trust our bullpen to carry more than three or four innings.

As the starting outfielder in this year’s All Star game, with multiple years of cheap control, is he our best trade chip? With Cowser’s arrival (granted batting average is not where it will be, but he’s having quality at bats and belongs in Baltimore), and Kjerstad kicking in the door, and trying to find at bats for Hicks and Santander and eventually Mullins, our outfield is really crowded. No doubt he is a good player, but would Austin’s production really be missed? Is it crazy to trade a starter during a playoff chase? What kind of return would he fetch? Bednar? Another quality reliever? Would Miami send a young starter? Seems like any pitching we get for him would help the team more than keeping him. Am I nuts?

Okay...as the OP I am calling this meeting to order. We have heard great arguments for and against this trade. We will assume Pittsburgh has called and offered Bednar for the exact package of Norby, Stowers and Willems. Are you making the trade or not? I say yeah. What say ye?

O's get - Relief Pitcher David Bednar Bucs get - 2B Connor Norby, OF Kyle Stowers (or Hudson Haskin), C Creed Willems Rationale: Norby and Stowers each carry a realistic shot at a major league career and each is pretty much ready to be called up now. Willems is having a great year for Aberdeen and only 20 years old. If only one of these guys pans out it will be a fantastic deal for Pittsburgh. While the combined value of the three prospects may be greater than that of Bednar, none of the three have a clear path with the O's. All are blocked by good young players. Though some may argue that the O's would be selling for $.80 on the dollar, their window is open now and an elite reliever is just what the doctor ordered. Bednar also comes with three years of control. Thoughts?

"Just because every guy can play 1b, doesn't mean that the team is better when they do." This is an interesting comment. In fact, I wonder if we are indeed better keeping 1B as an open position, allowing the manager flexibility to get more bats in the lineup against a certain pitcher based on match ups, history, etc. Somebody mentioned not wanting Urias there, but he was kinda the hero last night. O'Hearn has been a wonderful matchup. Santander's bat has been useful. Keeping in mind that putting these guys at 1B means another bat is in their usual position. So when Santander is at 1B, maybe that means both Cowser and Hays can also be in the lineup. Or maybe down the road even Adley or Basallo take turns playing 1B to keep their hot bats in the lineup. Just wondering if having an anchor at 1B means another good bat is on the bench. Interesting to think about.

As the OP, I have enjoyed reading your comments. Most of you guys lay out nice arguments. Looks like I'm on an island on this one. Despite the many compelling arguments against trading him, I gotta say I'm still inclined to deal him for a stud arm. Of course, I realize if he turns out to be a consistent .900+ OPS guy and anchors our lineup for years, there would be great value in keeping him. However, I still think we might already have that guy in the organization. Aside from GRod, we don't have that kind of pitcher. There is also a chance - as with all prospects - that he surfaces as a right handed .750 OPS guy. In which case, that trade window will be shut. I agree with everyone that Norby, Prieto, Fabian, Beavers, Ortiz and Haskin should always be offered first. But opposing GMs are pretty suave. None of them will get the arm that the current version of Mayo would net. Thanks for such a fun discussion. Love this board!

I respectfully disagree SG...every guy on the team can move over to 1B if needed. Last night Urias played there. Hell, that's how Mounty got there. He was a very good minor league hitter who couldn't stick at any other IF or OF position. It is indeed the easiest position to fill. That's also why they put Kjerstad and Santander there to keep their bats in the lineup when the OF gets crowded.

We seem to be talking a lot about the other great prospects as being valuable trade chips, but I'd like to make the case for why perhaps we should consider moving Coby at this year's deadline. Consider: - He is a big, strong kid...who may still get bigger and stronger. Impressive stature! - He is a young kid who happens to be tearing up AA pitching...ahead of schedule. - His only path to playing time in Baltimore is at 1st base. - 1st base is the easiest position in MLB to fill. - We could have said the same stuff about Mountcastle just three years ago. - Our OF logjam may provide a long-term 1B solution (Kjerstad, Santander, etc.) - The guy playing 1B currently, though maybe lacking pedigree, has played like an all star (considering number of games played). We have to face the hard truth. Coby has more value as a trade chip than as an actual player in this system. And, it's really hard to imagine that trade value being any higher than it is right now. It will surely be hard to see a prospect like that go to another team and flourish, but we need another pitcher. He can help bring us a good one, more than a rental. I say make the deal!

Perhaps we take another look within the system, but expand the scope to include current starters at Norfolk and Bowie. Any reason Grayson or some other starter can't finish out the season in the big league bullpen?

Valid point...I assume they would prefer the younger, cheaper version. It seems they have the pitching surplus to easily replace whomever they send our way.

An older and more expensive version of him AND A STARTING PITCHER