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bluedog

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Posts posted by bluedog

  1. 1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

    He can only play RF or DH.  

    Among players with 40+ PAs, Ryan O’Hearn leads the league in xwOBA at .531. He has a .950 OPS with .260 BABIP.  Despite not playing against lefties, I can’t see them decreasing O’Hearn’s role.  Adley often takes the DH spot vs lefties.

    I’m not sure if Elias/Hyde are fully comfortable yet with Kjerstad in RF.  He may be a downgrade from Tony defensively. Tony has struggled at the plate so far but he’s a streaky hitter that will be close to .800 OPS and 30 HRs when the season is over. It’s not a sure thing that we get better production from Kjerstad the rest of the way.  Replacing Tony with Kjerstad also makes us our lineup very lefty heavy.

    I don’t think Kjerstad is a massive upgrade from what we currently have in those spots given what we’ve seen in terms of MLB adjustment periods. Now maybe we can trade Tony or O’Hearn for a key piece while replacing most of their production.  However, it’s not clear what their trade value is in terms of MLB players - they will only be if interest to win-now teams who are unlikely to move top quality pitching. 

    If moving Tony or letting him walk and replacing him with Kjerstad opens up the financial flexibility to extend some of our core (or Burns) or acquire a top SP in FA / trade deadline salary dump, then I'm all for making that swap.

  2. 10 hours ago, baltfan said:

    If Bradish and Grayson are TOR starters, all of the sudden the need for a TOR free agent seems to go out the window, especially given the uncertainty of the guys out there.  Yamamoto is the only guy that I would be interested in who is possible TOR, and I think he is going to go for big $$$--maybe $200mm

    I'd take Snell as a free agent.

  3. 8 minutes ago, banks703 said:

    I really hope that the Yankees don’t hold out Cole from his last start to preserve the ERA title. That’s a very Yankee thing to do. I don’t expect Gray to start another game with the Twins having locked up their division but I suppose we’ll see. It would be awesome for Kyle if he were to win the ERA title. Maybe he throws 8 more shutout innings against the Sawx and gets it anyway. 

    The best thing would be if the Yanks hold Cole out for the ERA title and Bradish pitches the last game of the season and throws another shutout to beat Cole (which I believe is possible).

    • Like 1
  4. 3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

    Per Baseball America

    18. Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles 

    Age: 21

    Hot Sheet Appearances: 3

    The Scoop: In his age 21 season, Mayo split his time between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, producing one of the best statistical seasons in the minor leagues. Among players with a minimum of 500 plate appearances, Mayo ranked as the 5th best wRC+ in the minor leagues alongside Jackson Holliday and Junior Caminero. He was also one of 18 players with 29 or more home runs in the minor leagues this season. Mayo’s union of contact, approach and power has allowed him to find success during his professional career and looks like the next wave of Orioles impact rookies. (GP)

    Given that he matched Holliday and Caminero statistically and did it at higher levels, isn't there an argument to be made for Mayo to win Minor League Hitter of the Year?

  5. If Coby Mayo hits a HR today and gets 2 RBIs, he'll put up a 30 HR, 100 RBI season - at 21 years old...

    ...and he's currently ranked as the O's 4th best prospect.

    It's a good time to be an O's fan.

    • Upvote 2
  6. 6 hours ago, larrytt said:

    This seems like a good place to point out that since the Allstar Break, the O's lead the AL East in runs, RBI, OPS, AVE, doubles, triples, hits, sac, SF, and (defensively) turned the most double plays. They are second in ERA only to Toronto. They lead the entire AL in run differential at +79, with the Rays second at +51. When anyone questions whether the O's are really as good as the Rays, remember that we lead them in ALL of these categories since the Allstar Break. And that is why the O's have gone 41-21 since the Allstar Break, while the Rays have gone 35-24.

    Maybe we have that thread about the O's having no chance at winning the world series because they didn't have strong run differential to thank for the 2nd half dominance?

    Major reverse jinxage there.

  7. On 9/19/2023 at 1:55 AM, Roy Firestone said:

    Holliday, and Mayo, and Ortiz are coming...and Means at full strength next year, this team is going to be very good for a long time...if they stay healthy...

    I think Elias has shown that his approach is designed to account for injuries as well. The organizational depth has allowed the team to overcome injuries to a number of key contributors this year without the team missing a beat.

  8. The O's record on the road, in 1 run games and in extra innings all point to this team having a championship level ability to play their best in the face of adversity.

    As of last night the O's also have a 10 or more game lead in the standings over every team in the majors except the Braves, Rays and Dodgers. That's elite.

    • Upvote 1
  9. 53 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

    Cowser is a comedian. Kjerstad is a competitor.

    I think everyone on this O's team are competitors. They can also be other things as well. Good chemistry requires a mix of personalities.

    Rick Dempsey was a tremendous competitor, but he was also a total "class clown". He was also a World Series MVP. 

    Watch this video of him during rain delays: 

     

  10. 5 hours ago, Frobby said:

    Here’s what irks me right now.  They do a power ranking every week where they put the teams in tiers.  As of Monday, the O’s are in Tier 3.  Tier 3!  Are you frigging kidding me?   Give me a break!  The team has played one of the toughest schedules of any team, has the second best record in the sport, just won the season series with Tampa rather handily, and they’re in Tier effing 3?   Meanwhile, Tampa (5-8 against the Orioles and 2 games behind when the list was done) are in Tier 1, and Toronto (3-10 against the O’s and 10.5 games behind) are in Tier 2.  That’s inexcusable.  
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-september-11-17/

    The writers at Fangraphs are Tier 3

    • Upvote 1
  11. 2 hours ago, deward said:

    I don't know how O'Hearn fits into the long-term plan; he wasn't really supposed to be here contributing at this level. Elias definitely has a puzzle to try and put together for next year.

    It won't all happen at once, but maybe this is the plan longer term?

    Norby replaces Mateo

    Ortiz replaces Urias

    Holliday replaces Frazier

    Cowser replaces Hicks

    Kjerstad replaces Santander

    Mayo replaces either Ohearn or Mountcastle

    Basallo replaces McCann

    Beavers replaces Hayes

    Bradfield Jr replaces Mullins

  12. 5 minutes ago, yark14 said:

    Why?

    The players that provide minimal value/upside (Frazier, Urias, Mateo) are the first to go.

    I think this is right. The O's replace Frazier's left handed bat with Holliday and Mateo & Urias with Oritiz & Norby. Mountcastle gets replaced (when he's ready) with Mayo.

    I don't think there is a logjam in Elias' mind.

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