deward
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Posts posted by deward
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1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:
It would be a bad one
What if you could trade Kjerstad for the next Cole Ragans?
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
Ok. Your comment still confuses me. It’s not a new approach. He’s already sacrificed contact to tap into the power.
” He's definitely got plus raw power, we just have to see if he can tap into it regularly without sacrificing his contact rate. ”
"He's definitely shown plus raw power in the minors, we just have to see if he can tap into it regularly against major league pitching without sacrificing his contact rate."
Better?
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15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Santander will get a real 3/4 year contract (from someone else) in the offseason. As much as I like him, with all the bats will have ready in AAA, it just doesn’t make any financial sense to resign him.
Hays is fine as a 4th outfielder for the rest of the season. And probably after this year (depending on his performance) we either trade or non-tender him.
I see 2 spots opening up for next year (Santander and O’Hearn) for (Kerjstad and Mayo). We will also have to figure out a place for Basallo sometime next year as well.
The year after that we will most likely replace Mullins with Bradfield Jr.
You can make a case for keeping Santander here on a 3-4 year deal, and trading Kjerstad for another asset. Not saying that's what they'll do, but I could understand it being considered as an option.
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6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
I didn’t say he has proven anything. You mentioned him tapping into his raw power like it was a new development. He’s been doing this (power and high K’s) all along. Except for his brief time in the majors last year where he showed zero power.
I was specifically talking about him tapping into it in the big leagues.
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8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
He’s been tapping into his raw power at the expense of contact for quite awhile. This is nothing different than he was doing in the minors. 17 homers and 18 doubles in 87 AAA games last year.
Sure, he just needs to show that he can consistently carry that over to the big leagues. I think he will, but 26 PA with a 7:1 K/BB ratio don't prove it yet.
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4 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:
I disagree. Cowser is going to cool off at some point. You let him work through it instead of putting him back on the bench. As Tony said, Cowser is the starting LF for the Orioles.
I'll be surprised if Hyde and Elias are ready to bury Hays on the bench. At the very least, he'll be the starter vs LHP (unless he keeps not hitting at all). I'm expecting to see it settle into something like a 60/40 split, unless Hays continues to play himself out of even that much PT (or Cowser continues to put up video game numbers).
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6 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:
Most noteworthy may be that Cowser torched his HR at 113.8 MPH. The hardest hit ball he had last year in AAA was 110.3.
If he's really a plus raw power guy and found a new gear to tap into it in games, it reaffirms even more holding onto him.
He's definitely got plus raw power, we just have to see if he can tap into it regularly without sacrificing his contact rate.
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Just now, dystopia said:
What would you do? Sit Cowser? Come on.
Obviously not while he's this hot, but once he cools off a bit, I'd expect to start seeing Hays more often. They're going to give Hays more opportunities to get going.
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3 hours ago, justD said:
So how was it? Were you anywhere near the ball that Cowser hit in the 10th? Or did you somehow manage to be close to the visitors’ dugout?
Weather looked brutal but what a great game to see in person!
We were in the 2nd deck, right above the O's dugout. It wasn't the most fun weather for baseball, but I was mostly worried that it'd be bad enough to stop the game, and that obviously didn't happen. It was a little nerve-wracking until the 10th, but definitely a lot of fun. Getting to walk out with a bunch of dejected Sox fans is always a treat. Gunnar now has a three-game streak of homering in every game I see him play up here. I was hoping to catch Holliday's first hit, but I'll take Cowser's first two HR.
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3 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:
I'll agree to disagree on O'Hearn. There's nothing that will convince me that he's worth keeping Kjerstad blocked. You shouldn't block a bat like Kjerstad's with a platoon hitter.
It's probably more likely than not that O'Hearn would outproduce Kjerstad vs RHP this year, which is probably top priority for them given the win-now approach.
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Remember when everyone decided that Cowser couldn't play defense?
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2 minutes ago, allquixotic said:
Ump: denies the O's another chance and gives the Sux another chance. There should be real, tangible consequences for these guys when they blow these calls.
Couldn't agree more. The lack of accountability for these guys when their incompetence hurts teams is inexcusable.
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11 minutes ago, Ripken said:
Urias has been a good player for us but it's Mayo time. A lotto ticket trade is fine. Keep the bus moving. I'd still move ROH for Kjerstad. If Hays doesn't get going, Norby and Stowers are waiting. I want all the kids in Baltimore. Uncle Dave has plenty of money for extensions.
If the goal is to win a WS in 2024, there's no promise that Kjerstad can match or exceed ROH with the bat as a rookie (at least vs RHP). I expect him to be better eventually, but I can understand not wanting to make that move when Elias is trying to win now. I was all in favor of moving ROH in the off-season, but I'm starting to come around on the idea that he really has turned into a good hitter.
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2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:
I'm guessing no extension and that when asked "why now" Elias will give a sorta non-committal answer but mention these things
- Holliday looked good in his AAA time at bat and at 2b.
- MLB infield not hitting well.
- A more RHP slate coming up after lots of LHP opponents in the early series.
- Maybe he will mention that they think Holliday is the type of talent who could win ROY, and they were considering the draft pick.
If there's one thing I'm sure of in all of this, it's that Elias is never going to share the real thinking behind how this was handled. At least not until his tell-all autobiography in a couple of decades.
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1 minute ago, Explosivo said:
The Kemp deal was always to DFA in mind and pocket a guy in AAA in case of injury on the big league club. No one is going to touch that million I don't think and we will be nestled at Norfolk, waiting in the wings.
The major league minimum salary this year is $740k, so it's not like Kemp's salary is all that much more of a commitment. Elias screwed around with Holliday for 10 days just to try and keep Tony Kemp in the org? Maybe, but still a pretty strange way to go about it.
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1 minute ago, EdwinRip said:
I have to assume the plan at the end of spring training was to keep Holliday down longer, but after Urias and Kemp were not hitting, they felt the need was greater then they had anticipated. I think they saw something in spring training that they liked in Kemp-kemp had a great spring; but whatever it was did not carry over and they pivoted to try to win ROY and give the team a boost.
Kemp got a total of 10 PA. Sure they aren't judging anything on 2 games worth of at bats. I also can't help but feel like they would have called up Norby if it was just a reaction to Urias not hitting. Elias is the same guy who was so committed to his plan that he traded away Mancini and Lopez in the middle of a potential playoff run. Two years later and he's just flying by the seat of his pants with Jackson Holliday? It's so odd.
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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I think all of this is puzzling timing to say the least.
That being said, I want to go to something DeRosa basically said in that video. Maybe they just realized they f’ed up and said, dont make this mistake any worse. Just pull the band aid off and do it.
Kemp probably goes to AAA, so they keep him as “expensive depth”.
That does seem to be where Occam's Razor gets you, based on what we know - Elias goofed and is moving to fix it before it could have a significant impact.
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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Urias and Westburg hit in ST so they made the team.
After 10 games Elias was tired of Urias, Westburg and Kemp not hitting while Holliday hit for over a 1.000 OPS at AAA.
That is all it took to make the move.
History repeats its self. Elias optioned Irvin on April 14th last year because he was pitching poorly.
I doubt Elias is very bothered by Westburg right now, and Kemp only has 10 PA. I'd also be absolutely shocked if someone as methodical as Elias suddenly decided to change his plan regarding the #1 prospect in baseball based on the results of first 10 games. How Elias dealt with his 5th starter/swingman not being able to throw strikes vs how he handles the crown jewel of his system are going to be two very different things, not history repeating.
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17 minutes ago, capyy said:
everyone knows this - whats your point?
i was just saying its safe to assume elias and co has a good reason for what they did, even if we don't get it. Doesn't seem controversial.
Just pushing back a little on the philosophy of just assuming a smart person is doing something smart, even though what they're doing doesn't seem to make sense. That might turn out to be true, but it's ok to question it.
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3 minutes ago, capyy said:
Sure - but is it really a mistake or is it a good process and the result just isn't guaranteed?
I'm a fan of everything Elias does. He's the best GM in baseball. I will always assume he has a good reason for what he's done.
Sometimes a mistake is just a mistake. Smart people can talk themselves into bad decisions. Not saying this is one, time will tell there.
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12 minutes ago, capyy said:
When people who are really smart and good at their job are doing something I don't understand, i just assume they've got some smart plan/ideas others can't figure out.
I like that they're on our side.
Smart people who are good at their jobs still make dumb mistakes sometimes.
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27 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:
Why did Hyde use his worst 3 hitters in the bottom 3 spots, 3 automatic outs???
Bottom 3? Including Cowser?
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6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:
And he has been putting some good wood on the ball, even though the numbers haven't shown it. I was looking forward to him putting a beating on the monster today.
Agreed, same here.
Colton Cowser 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
The scenario where it might make sense involves trading Kjerstad for a premium, cost-controlled pitcher. You'd have to have the right deal on the table for Kjerstad, agree to the right terms with Santander, and have some reassurance from the analytics team that Santander is a decent bet to maintain his performance over the next 3-4 years, but it would be a scenario that I'd at least put some thought into, were it my call. I'm not saying that I wouldn't ultimately decide that letting him walk is the best move, just that I don't see it as an automatic decision.