e16bball
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Posts posted by e16bball
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7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
He's a special hitter for sure. Having a .400+ OBP ahead of Judge is terror.
But NYY OF defense looks more than a little suspect so far. Judge/Soto when Stanton is DH. Verdugo or Grisham in CF? Woof.
Presumably Judge will play CF. He’s been above-average there in 750+ innings over the last two seasons.
Obviously, the clock is ticking on how long he’ll be viable there. But for now, he’s probably okay.
On the thread topic, I think “awesome, I really love being the underdog” is a fantastic way to spin some degree of positivity into several of the very best players on earth coming to stand in our annual path to the playoffs.
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20 minutes ago, orioles119 said:
Soto is the definition of overrated. He frankly hasn't been that good since the Nationals won the World Series.
Juan Soto Since The Nationals Won the World Series
20.6 rWAR (4th in MLB)
166 OPS+ (2nd in MLB)
19.0 fWAR (6th in MLB)
159 wRC+ (4th in MLB)
I really wish we had anyone “not that good” like him.
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One interesting note with Kimbrel is that he was absolutely spectacular when throwing to JT Realmuto (1.86 ERA, .535 OPSA) and absolutely awful when throwing to Garrett Stubbs (8.04 ERA, .838 OPSA).
He pitched 17 times with Stubbs behind the plate, so it’s not as though that was just one or two bad days inflating the numbers. Kimbrel had 5 outings where he gave up multiple ERs, and Stubbs was the catcher on 3 of those 5 occasions (60%). He gave up any runs at all in 16 outings, and Stubbs was the catcher on 7 of those 16 occasions (44%). That seems pretty noteworthy when you consider that Stubbs only caught him in 17 of his 71 outings (24%).
Stubbs really only started catching full-time (well, as a full-time backup) in 2022. He certainly does not have the background to match guys like Realmuto, Rutschman, and McCann. Perhaps Elias and his crew think there’s something to exploit in that data.
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44 minutes ago, Number5 said:
LOL, no way. He would step off and throw you out easily. Notice that MLB players aren't trying this.
In all fairness, MLB players were 12/12 in stealing bases off him last year. With two catchers who combined to catch 23.3% of base stealers with all other pitchers, so holding runners was definitely a bit of an issue for him.
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39 minutes ago, CanadianOriole said:
Well, it's better than Chapman - I'll say that. I think it's reasonably unlikely that Kimbrel is as good next year as say Jacob Webb was for us. Not a move I can support given the limited dollars we're willing to spend.
How many available relievers do you consider “reasonably likely” to produce an ERA south of 3.25 over a full season?
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
This should tell you something about the trade value of Austin Hays after next season. Verdugo was 27 last season, had an OPS+ of 100 (career 105) and was worth 2.6 rWAR last year (11.1 career). Hays was 27 years old this year, had an OPS+ of 114 (career 107), and was worth 2.5 rWAR this year (9.0 career). The biggest difference between them is that Verdugo has 5 years of service (651 games played), while Hays has 4 years if service (494 games).
Absolutely. The comp between Hays and Verdugo jumps off the page looking at his OPS+ and WAR numbers.
If that all Hays can bring back, you really might as well just keep him. But I also think it does speak to the desirability of exploring these contender-contender trades of surplus hitting for surplus pitching with teams like CLE, SEA, MIA, etc.
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Not a very substantial return for Verdugo.
Greg Weissert is a 29-year-old reliever who has been good in AAA, but not in MLB. Nicholas Judice is a 6’8 recently drafted (8th round) reliever who has never thrown a professional pitch. And Richard Fitts seems to be the big prize here, both for his genuinely solid performance at age 23 as a starter at AA and for the numerous potential dirty puns you can make with his name.
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45 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:
The biggest concern about runs scored from 2023 will be the hitting with runners in scoring position. I've seen several people here call that out as something that's not guaranteed to be repeated.
Yeah, this is the problem.
They were 4th in the AL in runs, but they were 8th in wRC+. That gulf is (largely) explained by their BA with RISP, which ranked 1st in all of MLB and (along with TB) was way ahead of anyone else.
If they finish 4th in the AL in runs again, that’s probably just fine — especially given that OPACY is no longer a hitter’s park. But the likelihood is, unless they repeat that elite clutch/timely hitting performance, they’re going to need to improve the overall offense a bit to reach that status again. Hopefully the kids are ready to do that.
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2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:
The Orioles were 7th in MLB in runs scored last season. They don't a Frank Robinson; they need a Jim Palmer.
They were also 8th in the AL in wRC+, behind each of the other playoff teams and also the Mariners.
They scored a good amount of runs, but that’s pretty closely tied to the high average with RISP. Unless they’re going to continue to be the most “clutch” team in the league, the overall offense still needs to improve — and it seems a whole lot like they’re going to hope that all of that improvement will come from inside the organization. Hopefully their apparent faith in the prospects to be ready next season will pay off.
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6 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’ve never heard that the age curve varies depending on how tall you are. Is there research to that effect?
I haven’t found anything specific on it, save for a FG community post that sort of got halfway there — reaching the conclusion that while numerous short pitchers had been successful in the early 2000s, signing them as FAs had really not worked out. Which I think is sort of a proxy for the idea that they can be just as good when they’re young, but they hit the wall sooner (and harder).
Here’s the link to the B-R search results for anyone who is interested. I think it’s relatively powerful evidence of what I’m suggesting — but perhaps there are just so few SPs under 6 feet tall that the failure rate at advanced ages is similar to taller pitchers, the sample is just tremendously smaller (no pun intended).
I don’t think so, though. It’s pretty remarkable that not one guy shorter than 6 feet has put up even 5 WAR as a SP between the ages of 34-36 in almost 40 years.
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7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
Pedro Martinez, Fernando Valenzuela , and Johnny Cueto are all under 6 feet. Martinez had a 3.63 ERA in his age 37 season. Cueto had 3.35 ERA in his age 36 season. Valenzuela had a 3.62 ERA is 170 innings in his age 35 season.
Pedro pitched a total of 44 innings in the season youre citing — not exactly a banner year for him. He was worth 1.2 WAR in the 34-36 window that I specified, pitching 270 total innings to a 91 ERA+.
Fernando was worth a total of 2.9 WAR from 34-36, pitching to a 93 ERA+ over 351 innings. Largely because he had two terrible seasons sandwiched around the one solid year you pointed out.
Cueto did have one excellent year with the White Sox at 36. He also was basically worthless for the two (actually, four) seasons prior to that, posting a combined 4.4 WAR (102 ERA+ over 336 innings) from 34-36. He averaged 110 innings of league-average pitching, and that makes him the gold standard for modern short/old starters.
You could take all 3 of these guys you’ve suggested as exceptions to the rule I’m proposing — all of them excellent (CY level) pitchers in their prime — and combined they still weren’t worth the 9ish WAR you’d be looking for on a $70M deal.
7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:Ron Guidry had ERAs in the 3’s in his age 34-36 seasons.
Yes, Ron Guidry is the one guy I found when I expanded the search to include 5’11 guys. He threw 569 innings with a 115 ERA+, providing 9.5 WAR between 34-36. Paying $70M for those years would have been a successful investment.
There’s also Fred Norman of the Reds in the late 70s. He pitched 594 innings with a 106 ERA+, making him worth 6.7 WAR between 34-36. Not a “win” for $70M, but not a terrible loss. Call it a draw.
I noticed you also mentioned Billy Wagner. There are actually several great short/old relievers (John Franco, Fernando Rodney, Steve Farr, Tom Gordon, Jeff Montgomery, etc). But I would hope we could agree that paying more than $23M/year for a reliever — and likely not even a closer in years two and three — is a loss by default. That’s never going to be a good deal for this team.
7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:So while it’s a valid concern that mid 30s guys start to run out of gas. I think the rest of your argument has holes, No?
I really appreciate all the work you put into looking into this, because I know how long it takes and because you raised some good counter-points. But I don’t know that I’d agree that there are “holes,” per se.
We’ve got one guy in the last 50+ years (Guidry) who would have been a win on a $70M deal. We’ve got one guy (Norman) who we probably would have been satisfied with. Neither of those are exactly “modern” — Guidry was the more recent of the two, and he was 34 in 1985, the year I was born. I’m 38 now.
Behind those two, every single short/old SP would have been a big loss on a 3/$70M deal from 34-36. Yes, there’s Johnny Cueto and his magical 3.5 win season, but he gave you nothing in the other two seasons. And he’s taking home the bronze amongst all these guys over half a century!
If you’re signing a player saying “hey, we need you to be substantially better than every single guy who shares this particular trait with you over the last 4 decades or so,” I think you’re asking for trouble. I don’t think the Mike/Sig model would consider that a bet they’d be interesting in laying.
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17 hours ago, dystopia said:
The market is what it is. Players just get absurd amounts of money these days, especially pitchers.
Sure, but I think the primary point I was making was much more specific to Gray — old/short SPs hit the wall brutally, and right around his age, with almost no exceptions.
Knowing that, unless there’s something specific about Sonny Gray that makes him different from basically every other SP shorter than 6 feet, it’s hard to imagine the Mike and Sig model determining it’s optimal to be the team to pay him absurd amounts of money for his mid-30s. Especially when there’s also draft pick attached to him.
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I don’t know the intricacies of the Orioles’ model, but I would find it hard to believe there’s any model out there that would consider it wise to pay a 5’10 SP big money for his age 34-36 seasons.
Even if we’re only talking 9ish WAR to earn a $70M contract, it seems like a bad idea. In the last 50+ years, there have been precisely zero pitchers 5’10 or shorter that have been worth more than 7 rWAR between ages 34-36.
Fred Norman is the leader in that group among guys who were primarily SPs, with 6.7 rWAR between 1977-79. The next closest behind him? Paolo Espino, with 1.1 rWAR between 2021-23, and Dennis Springer, with 0.1 rWAR between 1999-2001.
Gray seems like a great competitor. He’ll have to be something special, because Whitey Ford is the only old/short SP since the Orioles moved to Baltimore that would have earned the deal Gray is going to get.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
Not sure how it's terrifying.
MLB reported over 10B in revenue in 2022.
It’s terrifying in the sense that I would like to see the Orioles acquire one or more of these players, and I see maybe 2-3 price tags on that entire list that I think won’t trigger instant sticker shock for them.
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Pretty terrifying article from David Schoenfeld at ESPN today, just in terms of repeating the projected prices for a lot of these players that Kiley McDaniel put out the other day. Especially the pitchers.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7/$212M
Blake Snell: 6/$150M
Jordan Montgomery: 5/$106M
Josh Hader: 5/$105M
Eduardo Rodriguez: 4/$72M
Sonny Gray: 3/$69M
Shota Imanaga: 4/$68M
Lucas Giolito: 4/$68M
Marcus Stroman: 3/$63M
Jordan Hicks: 4/$44M
Seth Lugo: 3/$36M
Robert Stephenson: 3/$30M
Yariel Rodriguez: 4/$30M
Michael Lorenzen: 2/$28M
Michael Wacha: 2/$26M
Nick Martinez: 2/$25M
Jack Flaherty: 1/$17M
Schoenfeld had the O’s signing Jordan Hicks for that contract (4/44) and trading Coby Mayo for Corbin Burnes.
Realistically, I would think only Ed-Rod for 4/72 and Wacha for 2/26 would be price tags I’d expect the O’s to match. Maybe Stephenson if they intend to throw him into the mix for closer, but that still seems richer than what I could ever imagine them paying a reliever.
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1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:
Fabian...I love secondary skills as much as anyone, but a .176 batting average at Bowie? I wonder if there's every been a successful major league hitter who hit .176 at AA at age 23.
He’s listed at age 22 for this past season, but as best I can tell, since 2006, the answer to your question is “no.”
James McCann hit .200 back in 2012, which is probably your lowest BA at that age in AA for a reasonably successful ML hitter. Sean Murphy hit .209 in 2017, and now he’s a star. Teoscar Hernandez (2015) and Jeimer Candelario (2016) hit .219.
I actually don’t see anyone who has posted such a poor average at any age at AA and become a recognizable ML player. So that…does not feel like a great sign. Journeyman backup catcher Sandy Leon did hit for a .177 average at age 24, and he has managed to carve out a decent living for himself, so that’s something.
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My question in response to that proposal would be to try to figure out how Hays’s value compares to that of Santander. All things being equal, I’d prefer to move Hays — even though he’s got some obvious advantages (specifically more control and more defensive value).
I am concerned about power with this team. Gunnar is a great bet to hit for power, but who else aside from Santander? There were 65 players who posted an ISO over .200 last season, and we had two of them. One of whom is the subject of this trade rumor.
Folks seem to feel as though Kjerstad is a likely source of immediate power, but I’m not sure I think that’s something to bank on. He had a .199 ISO throughout the minors, which is pretty much right in line with what he posted at Norfolk (.200 on the nose). That’s an okay number, but consider that it fell behind the likes of Westburg, Stowers, Mayo, Cowser, and Lester amongst just the regulars on that team, and also just a tick ahead of Norby. His wRC+ at Norfolk was 116, but we see him as a plug-and-play replacement for Santander’s 119 wRC+ at the ML level? That seems optimistic to me.
I do think that generally, as a group, O’s fans are a little too comfortable with the offense for next season. I saw it said earlier in the thread that they were behind “a few” other playoff teams offensively, but even that’s probably too generous. Per wRC+, they were behind every other playoff team (plus the Mariners). Unless we’re banking on them topping the league in hitting with RISP again, the offense needs to actually improve — not just maintain — and that may be a big ask from just internal improvements and prospect promotions. It becomes an even bigger ask if the plan is also to trade away the 3rd best hitter for pitching.
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Cool date for the original post. Gunnar was hitting .199 on May 29, and his OPS was teetering on the very brink of starting with a “6.” From that date, the average and the OPS were never that low again.
May 29 wasn’t exactly the low point of his season (that probably came about 3 weeks earlier), but he was in the midst of a 10-day mini-slump and the citizens were definitely getting restless. On May 30, the day after this post, Gunnar went 2/4 with a double and 3 RBIs, and he never looked back. His next 10 days? A cool .432/.462/.892/1.354 slash line.
This was basically the “Phillies giving Trea Turner a standing ovation” moment of our 2023 season. I see no evidence to prove that Gunnar didn’t log on to the OH on the morning of May 30, read this post, realize he was squarely on the Cal Ripken path, and go out that night against Cleveland feeling inspired and emboldened.
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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
Bieber had as many walks this year at 120 ish innings compared to 200 this year. I’d look into his injury and determine if he will give you close to 200 innings or 120. If it’s the later you can get that by putting Wells back in the rotation. Also he’s a free agent after this coming season. That’s a guy you give up lottery tickets for unless you are going to extend him as part of the deal. It’s risky but 1 year or 120 ip situation is not much more than a lateral move. I mean he’s likely to have a better ERA than Gibson but you have a coin flip on getting the innings. Is that worth giving up a valuable chip like Norby and some fluff?
You’ve nailed a lot of the red flags, but I think you’re pretty heavily underselling the upside potential here.
If you’re willing to go back as far as 2022, he posted a season that was arguably better than any Orioles pitcher since Bedard (2.88 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 4.8 fWAR over 200 innings). And I know it seems like he must be old, because he’s been around forever, but he’s actually only about the same age as Kremer. I think that 2022 season is probably the reasonable ceiling for him with the diminished velocity he’s shown since his shoulder injury of 2021.
But even if he just repeats 2023 with more innings — a likelihood unless he has another substantial injury, as he’s always gone deep in games — he’s your Opening Day SP3. I’m not sure what better return you’d hope to be getting for Connor Norby (and fluff).
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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Is Bieber even better than Kremer at this point?
I think it’s very likely that he is.
We’re talking about a 28-year-old who posted a cumulative 2.91 ERA (with FIP/xFIP both also below 3.00) over almost 600 innings from 2019-2022. He was undoubtedly one of the top 5-10 pitchers in all of baseball during that span.
Even if we assume that version isn’t coming back — although I don’t think that’s a certainty, at least with regard to the diminished Ks 2022 version — and only look at 2023, he was still better than Kremer despite working through elbow issues. In fact, Kremer has never actually bested Bieber in any individual metric (ERA, FIP, xFIP, xERA) in any season.
He’s very likely not the bona fide *ace* that he once was, and that some are dead-set on the Orioles seeking. The drop in velocity has probably seen to that. But unless he takes another huge drop-off, I think he’s very likely better than Kremer and probably better than Means. I don’t know that you’re going to do better than a proven potential SP3 on a reasonable one-year deal as the straight-up return for Austin Hays.
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Happened upon this article, which is from a Guardians oriented blog. The intro to the article proffers that the Cleveland fandom has been bandying about potential deals with the O’s for some time, specifically with regard to former Indians prospect Santander.
This article, though, suggests a Bieber for Hays deal, straight up.
Starting with the finances, a necessity with this franchise it seems, MLBTR says you’re looking at $12M for Bieber next year (and then free agency). Hays is projected at $6M for next season, with one year of arbitration (likely in the $8-9M range) remaining.
We know what Hays is. Pretty good bet at this point for a (streaky) 105-110 wRC+, probably at least an average corner OF for the next two seasons, always a bit banged up, great clubhouse guy and fan favorite. Solid likelihood of giving you 2.0-2.5 WAR, as long as he’s mostly healthy. Guardians desperately need to add some sticks to their OF, so the fit is pretty obvious.
Bieber is a bigger question mark. Took a major step back last season, certainly no longer was pitching at the “ace” standard he’d previously established. There are some pretty grim signs in terms of trends — the velocity and the K rate have both cratered over the last couple years. Statcast has gone from blood red in 2020 to a pretty frosty grayish-blue hue in 2023. He was in the 2nd percentile for exit velocity last year, contributing to very poor “expected” stats across the board.
That said, he’ll still be only 28 on Opening Day next season, somehow only 7 months older than Kremer. He missed a good bit of time with an elbow injury last season — which you could probably frame as either a good thing (if a temporary, and now resolved, injury explains some of the declining stuff) or a terrible thing (if he’s an aging pitcher whose arm is rapidly ticking down toward zero). He’s always been a horse, averaging about 6.3 IP per start over his career, including last year. And while things were at their nadir for him this past season, he did still manage a 3.80 ERA to go with closely matching FIP/xFIP numbers, which would have put him toward the top end of our 2023 rotation.
A swap of an OF for a SP between BAL and CLE seems to make a ton of sense. Both teams dealing from ML roster surplus, without touching their farm system or being forced to take on any crazy contracts. Is Bieber for Hays a move you would do as the Orioles? Do you agree with this blogger that the Guardians would also potentially bite? -
4 hours ago, Bird Lady said:
This. I believe the ability was there with both Rodriguez and Kremer, but emotionally, they crumbled like cookies in the playoff atmosphere.Now Kremer had many things on his mind, and it's questionable whether he should have pitched at all. However, as Tony often points outs, Grayson has got to work on emotional command, as well as command of his stuff.
Maybe Grayson, maybe in the 2nd inning. We’ll probably never know exactly where that lollipop throw to 1st came from — maybe that was him “tightening up,” as they say. But let’s keep in mind, the kid pitched the biggest game of our regular season on that same mound a couple weeks earlier, and he threw 8 shutout innings to bring a brutal slide to a screeching halt. His emotional maturity certainly wasn’t at issue that evening.
As for Kremer, he gave up the 1st inning HR to Seager, and then in the disaster 2nd inning, it went: Lowe lined out, Jung singled, Taveras fouled out, Semien doubled, IBB to Seager, Garver doubled, García homered.
The guys who hurt him were Seager (169 wRC+ for the season), Jung (110 wRC+), Semien (124 wRC+), Garver (138 wRC+), and Garcia (124 wRC+).
With all due respect to Dean, every one of those guys is just better than him. Much better, honestly. With the exception of Jung (who had a 120 wRC+ himself when he got hurt in August), each of those guys was Gunnar/Adley equivalent or better. And in the case of Seager, much better.
I don’t think there’s any narrative required to explain what happened with Kremer. He’s a decent back-end starter who was asked to pitch to a lineup of scalding hot all-stars in their hitter-friendly home park — him getting tagged was always the most likely outcome. The fact that he did get pounded doesn’t mean he must have failed mentally or buckled under the pressure. The obvious explanation is the simplest one: he got beat by a bunch of guys who are better than him.
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1 hour ago, G54377 said:
Hays, Ortiz, Povich, and Beavers for Bryce Miller and Penn Murphy (SEA).
For us: opens up an outfield spot for Cowser/Kjerstad while trading Hays at his likely peak value, the utility role Urias can keep while Westburg starts at 3B or 2B (Holliday eventually at the other). Murphy would help our middle relief right away who is tough on RH, and can lead to hopefully discarding the Bakers and Boumanns of the world.
They get a good all around outfielder for a few years which replaces Hernandez (FA), an infielder who can immediately start at 2B, and a high upside SP. Plus Beavers as a potential 4th OF at least. They seem to have endless relievers so losing Murphy isn't that big of a deal for them.
Boy, you’d have to be pretty confident about Bryce Miller to make this trade.
And I really don’t think I am. The MiL numbers are good, but not great. The rookie performance was fine, but not great — you have to like the K/BB ratio, but the StatCast metrics are pretty unimpressive. He gave up lots of hard contact, which is reflected in the 4.83 xERA. Basically a two-pitch pitcher (FB and SL), and as I seem to recall from when he faced us, I think he has a “gyro” style fastball that he likes to pitch up in the zone with. Lots of flyballs, as a result.
If they did this deal, I’d get excited about him because I’d have to feel like they had some “plan” in mind to take him to the next level. But on its face, that seems like a lot of give up for Miller.
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37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
To me, it’s Snell or bust this offseason.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think it’s going to be “bust” then.
I just don’t see any way that Mike/John’s first major foray into FA will be paying market value for a reigning CY winner — especially one who just managed to pitch 130+ innings (in his contract year) for the first time since Buck was writing out lineups with Davis/Jones/Machado in them.
Snell feels a lot like this year’s Rodon. And I’d expect them to have about as much interest as they had in last year’s Rodon.
Do you like rooting for an underdog? I kind of do
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I think that’s definitely the risk on their end.
I suspect they may not care about getting Stanton regular at-bats any longer, so I’m betting they will acquire some sort of CF-capable 4th OF like Michael A. Taylor and sprinkle him into the rotation liberally to allow Judge and Soto frequent opportunities to slide a notch down the defensive strenuousness scale.