e16bball
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Posts posted by e16bball
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4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:
Had the option of using McCann with Grayson vs the LHP, like was done all season, and starting Gibson tonight.
I also would have started Gibson tonight, but why would using McCann have had any effect on the Grayson implosion?
He had a better ERA pitching to Adley this season than to McCann, so it’s not like McCann is some sort of Grayson whisperer…
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1 minute ago, spiritof66 said:
Who is backing up Kremer? I can't think of a candidate other than Gibson.
Bryan Baker
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3 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:
One thing I came away from yesterday's game is I feel like we're not being aggressive enough on bad pitches. The 3rd pitch of Adley's AB was piped right down the middle at 93. It should have been crushed.
Cage match to the death between you and the guys who are focused on running up the pitch count.
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That’s the swing you want to see from your franchise player on 3-1.
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That kid freakin’ hung in there. Should have struck out the side to end a rally, saw the danger get even deeper thanks to a bad call, and still came back threw fire in the zone to Heim.
That was some serious nerve. Please let this offense do a little damage now.
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Not sure that hitting Hays and Hicks behind Gunnar is quite enough. I would have had Mountcastle right behind him, in hopes that it would discourage them from force-feeding him LHPs — or alternatively at least making sure Mountcastle gets some swings against those southpaws.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
Why?
I'd like to see them attack pitches they think they can drive.
Agreed. This is not a case of trying to wait out a stud starter to get to weaker pitchers — they can (and hopefully may) hurt Heaney, early and often.
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Austin Hays: leadoff hitter in your book, still a #6 hitter in his heart.
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29 minutes ago, dtk9119 said:
Ugh and Baker is on.. hope he has improved since the MiLB championship game
He was awesome in the MiLB championship game, I can only assume that’s a big part of why they went with him. Maybe he figured something out? He was dreadful for weeks prior to that.
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LF Austin Hays
C Adley Rutschman
DH Anthony Santander
1B Ryan Mountcastle
SS Gunnar Henderson
RF Aaron Hicks
CF Cedric Mullins
2B Jordan Westburg
3B Ramon Urias
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2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:
Umpire assignments have been released.
Per Umpire Scorecard, Barrett is the only one of the group that is appreciably below-average from an accuracy standpoint behind the plate.
Quinn Wolcott has the highest average accuracy (over expected), followed by John Libka, Cory Blaser, Alfonso Marquez, and Barrett in descending order.
Interestingly, Barrett will be behind the plate in Game One, and he’s among the umps that are most favorable to home teams. In a loud and raucous environment, with the fans hanging on every call, he seems like a decent bet to err on the side of the good guys a few times.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
Both these pitchers were awesome the entire second half of the season. I’m looking forward to seeing how they handle the pressure of pitching in the playoffs. I have a lot of confidence in both of them.
For those worried about how Means might do in Arlington, I suggest you check out the only start he’s made there. 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K’s. Works for me!
If we can get Texas to agree to run out the same lineup as that day, sign me up!
SS Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (85 OPS+ for the season)
2B Nick Solak (87 OPS+)
1B Nathaniel Lowe (112 OPS+)
RF Adolis Garcia (100 OPS+)
DH David Dahl (55 OPS+)
C Jose Trevino (66 OPS+)
3B Charlie Culberson (85 OPS+)
LF Eli White (56 OPS+)
CF Leody Taveras (30 OPS+)
Remarkably, half of the guys in that early April lineup aren’t even ML players anymore, two years later (Culberson, Dahl, White, and Solak). Though Dahl did have a front-row seat for Colton Cowser and Connor Norby winning the AAA world heavyweight championship a week or so ago.
The Orioles (rightly) get a lot of credit for how far they’ve managed to come in just a couple short years, but the same is really true of Texas as well. They only have two holdovers from their primary 2021 batting lineup, and now they’re probably the best offense in the AL. It feels like a less impressive feat because they dropped so much money on their double play combo, but they have definitely rebuilt that roster on the fly as well.
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I kinda like the idea of packaging Means and Kremer together. You don’t overexpose Means — which has been a little bit of an issue as he’s gone deeper into games — and I think it would give them two pretty different looks to deal with. Hopefully don’t let them get comfortable.
Have Means pitch to about 15 batters (essentially get through Nathaniel Lowe’s second AB) and then have Kremer take over from there. That should hopefully get you deep enough into the game that you can start playing mix and match with our higher-end relievers.
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As I said in the other thread predicting the starters, I don’t think there’s enough evidence there to suggest that there’s some strategic advantage to using Means at OPACY that would outweigh the fact that Grayson is simply the significantly better pitcher at this point.
Yes, OPACY is a better park for LH power hitters. But I don’t see any evidence in the small samples we have with both guys (Means post-injury and Grayson 2.0) that suggests that Means would be better at suppressing lefty power. With his changeup humming (and his curveball not), he’s actually had reverse splits thus far in his brief return — and he’s given up 2 HRs in the 23 PAs he’s had against LHH.
The Rangers are better against finesse pitchers (like Means) and flyball pitchers (like Means). His curveball, their biggest (and only?) weakness this season, has been his worst pitch thus far. It gives me serious concern about how he’ll hold up. The Rangers typically pulverize the ball in their stadium, so we’ve got to maximize our opportunities to grab wins while we’re at home.
I think the goal has to be to try to jump out to a lead in the series, and Grayson is just better than Means. And the chance to have him come back and pitch a couple piggyback innings behind Bradish in Game 5 is the icing on the cake that seals the deal for me.
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Gotta figure it’s probably a maximum of two times through the lineup for Dunning.
They’ve got 3 lefties in the bullpen (Burke, Smith, Chapman) who are pretty tough on LH hitters, and I think they’ll use them liberally in Game One with the knowledge that they likely won’t be quite so necessary if Montgomery starts Game Two.
I imagine they’ll each get a whack at the Gunnar-through-Mullins portion of our lineup against RHPs.
One of the interesting questions for me is whether Hyde would put both Mountcastle and O’Hearn in the starting lineup against Dunning (sending Hicks to the bench) or would hold back Mountcastle as an effort to deter (or attack) a Bochy move to a middle-innings LHP reliever.
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Not much difference for Texas between LHPs and RHPs. They’re 115 wRC+ against lefties and 114 wRC+ against righties, so they pretty much just smash everyone. Like basically everyone else but us, they’re worse against power pitchers (higher Ks, higher BBS) than finesse guys, and they’ve fared better against fly ball pitchers than against ground ball heavy guys.
Not a ton of promising data on pitch types either. The only pitch that they haven’t been well-above-average against is the curveball (they’ve actually been below-average against those). They’re basically best in the league against sliders, cutters, and changeups, which is a little daunting, and it’s not like they’re weak against the fastball either.
The one positive thing I could find is that they’re not nearly as good on the road (103 wRC+) as they are at home (126 wRC+). Having the potential for 3 games away from their ballpark might be our best advantage against these guys — though that certainly didn’t help the Rays (or us a few months ago).
As to the question of the order in which to deploy our starters, I don’t see any strong reason to do anything other than go in order of quality. Which means rolling out Bradish and Grayson in games one and two.
They don’t struggle against lefties, and I think there’s (very) significant reason for concern that Means will be vulnerable to these guys. He’s not a high velocity guy and he doesn’t miss many bats. He’s a fly ball pitcher, and they’re a team looking to elevate the ball with authority. His best weapon right now is the changeup, a pitch they generally mash. And they just got done handling Civale and Eflin, who are both relatively similar pitchers. Anything can (and will) happen, but I don’t see a strong basis for trying to rush Means out there in Game 2.
I think the key to this series is to try to defend the Yard. Try to jump out to a strong lead before they get back to Arlington where they pulverize the ball. To me, we want Bradish and Grayson pitching the two home games, and potentially being in a position where they could come back (as a tandem?) for a Game 5 if necessary. I’d use some combination of Means, Kremer, and Gibson to handle the bulk innings at their place and try to ride a hot hand if there is one.
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17 hours ago, lifelongbirdfan said:
Man, I would love to see Felix Bautista do it. That would be an amazing way to honor his contribution this year!
I have to say, that would be pretty great.
Not that the stadium won’t be rocking anyway, but that building would absolutely explode if they got a whistle, a light show, and one last heater (and Adley hug) from the Mountain.
And as you said, it would be a great opportunity to properly give him his flowers for an unbelievable season, where he flat-out carried this team on his back at times.
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9 minutes ago, jcaponio said:
Thank goodness for Texas’s choke job last weekend. Being on the same side of the bracket as both Tampa and Houston would have been the worst case scenario.
Would it?
Now we may very well have to play both of them (TB in ALDS and HOU in ALCS). If they were both on our side of the bracket, that means one of them would have to eliminate the other before getting to us.
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Norby with a Norbomb for Norfolk!
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3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
Challenging Flaherty or Gibson on a per-batter basis?
He’s been absolutely horrific over the last couple weeks, so that feels like a longshot.
He’s got it all working tonight, though. If you got this Baker every night, he’d be the 8th inning man we were hoping he was back in April.
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9 baserunners through 4 innings, and they’ve managed a single run.
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Gamecast says another terrible strike call inside to Urias on the 2-0 pitch?
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Unreal. Call it an Alaskan heat wave, because Fairbanks is melting down…
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Fairbanks does what Bichette couldn’t. Good man.
The second guessing Hyde thread.
in Orioles Talk
Posted · Edited by e16bball
I understand you’re on kind of an anti-Adley heater right now — but if McCann catches, then Adley DHs, and it means one of Hays/Mullins/Santander/Hicks has to ride the pine.
I don’t see that being the right play, unless you were really certain that James McCann and his one career postseason start would be the elixir to Grayson’s playoff jitters.