davearm

Penn's already surpassed 50 IP.

I pointed this out the last time one of these threads rolled through. Seems to me that there's good reason to slot a guy or two with lower ceilings, like Liz and Olson, ahead of a guy with a higher ceiling like Rowell, simply due to their far higher probability of reaching the bigleages, and contributing. As we sit here today, what are Rowell's odds of getting, say, 200+ ABs in the majors, ever? And before anyone jumps on me, I'd ask the same question of Josh Vitters. The list of first-round HS kids that just don't ever make it is long enough to circle the globe. On the other hand, at this point I'd feel pretty confident about predicting that Liz and Olson will have at least decent MLB careers, since they're excelling in the high minors. Interested to hear how you balance these ceiling vs. probability considerations when you make your lists Tony.

So why is Garrett Olson out? He's only thrown 18 IP. You need 50.

Seems to me that Penn won't be in the O's rotation much before the trade deadline, if then even. And RLo doesn't sound likely to be around after the deadline.