theocean
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Posts posted by theocean
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34 minutes ago, weams said:
I think he spent BAMtech the last two years. MASN is a farce.
I think BAMtech money was used last two years as well. Over the last few years, the O's have had a little over 2 million fans attend games - which puts them on Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle's level. I think $130-$140 million payroll is what the O's can realistically do.
As far as MASN - who knows what they actually bring in. I get the feeling it doesn't bring in as much money as people would expect. But, I could be totally wrong. All I know is that I hope it sticks around as long as it means I get to hear Gary Thorne call games while drinking Jack Daniels and Jim Palmer be his normal sassy self.
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27 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t think one meeting in November means that much. I suspect Brady gets lots of assignments that we don’t hear about, just like we never heard of this one until today. He may have met with lots of FA’s or agents, getting things teed up.
Duquette doesn't have the most outgoing personality - so sending a friendly guy who used to be a player for a first meeting is probably effective.
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2 minutes ago, SteveA said:
Working hypothesis:
1) Angelos realized that the window had closed when the pitching went south last year. Not only that, but attendance has dropped steadily and season tickets are way down for this year. Season tickets correlate to total ticket sales, so even if the team miraculously had a great season, attendance would still likely drop. Walkup helps but only on good weather days and can't make up for the loss of many 81 game plan holders.
2) So Angelos dialled back the budget this year. This is a demarcation year. Manny, Britton, Jones, Showalter, Duquette, Brach -- all gone after this year. He knows in his wrinkled, dusty heart, that we can't win.
3) But DD was instructed to give lip service to winning so that the fans wouldn't completely abandon ship in droves. A tourniquet to stop the bleeding this year. Remember, there's thousands of fans who don't follow it as closely as we do. They'll see we signed Cashner, we have some young guys, and they'll be hopeful. We're an echo chamber in here, reinforcing each other's despair about the future of the franchise. We are aware of advanced stats that 80% of people who go to games and spend money are not. There are plenty of O's fans who watch 100+ games a year, go to 20+, but they don't follow baseball the way we do. They don't study the FIPs of new acquisitions, or even think about baseball much at all until Opening Day. Then they give it their full attention. They've probably never heard of Cashner but they'll read the paper tomorrow and like his ERA from last year, and they'll form their opinion of him watching him pitch starting in April. The doom and gloom in our niche segment of the fanbase hasn't quite gotten out to all Oriole fandom. They know we had a bad year and had sucky pitching and the suckiest of the pitchers are gone, and they're waiting to see how the replacements do. So just by talking about trying to compete, DD is preventing some folks from ditching their season tickets.
4) Next year we bring in fresh new GM, manager, start a youth movement highlighted by Harvey, Sisco, Hays, Akin, Stewart, Santander, Mullins... try to market it as a completely new era. You won't be able to hide the fact that one era has ended with all those guys leaving, so you'll have to admit you are building. Hope to get a 1989-style youth infusion and start growing the fanbase back.
Does that explain the inexplicable offseason?
There's been reports out there that the O's have had an operating loss in 2016 and 2017. I think Angelos saw that the O's had a good roster and was willing to spend up to and beyond the limit a bit to try and push the team over the edge.
I think that is why you see the O's not participating in the international market. They've literally used all of their money on the payroll for players.
Baseball teams spend the money that the team generates. Sometimes, the owner will spend his own money - for example, Mike Illitch of the Tigers (which is why they had such expensive teams and are now slashing payroll). But, basically, baseball teams bring in money and then they put that same money into the team.
They aren't broke. They might have some uncertainty with how much money they'll have coming in with the MASN decision up in the air - but the O's seem to balance their books.
The idea that the law firm pays for the Orioles really doesn't make any sense. I'm sure all of the partners of the law firm would be thrilled the profits of their company were going to another company of which they were not an owner.
Baltimore is a small market. Last year, they spent as much as the Cubs. That's clearly unsustainable. Angelos isn't a mega super rich owner, either - like Ted Lerner.
I think the O's are trying to do the best then can with the money they have. They're being smart by not trading their prospects away for once. They have a decent core together and just added a veteran starter. If they stink next year - they can trade Machado, Jones, Cashner, Britton, Brach, O'Day, and Trumbo for a lot. But, if they're good - it'll be awesome.
That's just kind of how it is. If you want to root for a team that spends lavishly and is poised for a championship every year - say you have an "uncle" from New York and used to "wear a Yankees hat at Memorial Stadium" when you were a kid. Or start following soccer and become a Barcelona fan.
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Just now, Aristotelian said:
If you believe that 4.6 WAR is real and repeatable. Eye test disagrees but maybe Cashner has some kind of magic on balls in play.
I don't think he repeats that. But, I think he'll look like an ace compared to Tillman and Ubaldo last year. Lot of addition by subtraction for the O's in 2018.
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I know this is totally ridiculous, but just for fun:
Cashner had a 4.6 WAR last year. Ubaldo had -1.3 WAR. So 5.9 additional WAR with this signing.
Manny had a 3.5 WAR last year - let's say he gets back to 6 WAR this year.
Trumbo has -.6 WAR, Davis has -.1 WAR - let's just say they put up 0 WAR each this year.
Hardy had -.5 WAR. Beckham had a 3.3 WAR - let's just say that change results in 2 WAR.
Miley had -.3 WAR, Tillman had -2.2 WAR - let's just say their replacements put up 0 WAR this year.
That's 14.1 additional WAR in 2018 than 2017. Or 89.1 wins.
Again, this is a totally ridiculous WAR exercise. But, even without another signing, it is NOT crazy the O's can compete for the Wild Card in 2018.
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1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:
Cashner sucks but he’s better than what we have and the contract isn’t terrible, I suppose.
If he sucks, it doesn't end up being a bad deal. If he's solid, you have to pay him a bit more.
Pretty solid signing. Gotta credit DD here for what he's working with.
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2 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
It seems rare to me that a free agent acquisition ever ends up being worth the contract they receive. Can ya'll remember many that did? Maybe some small ones, but I am thinking the really big ones, like top tier?
As far as active players and their active contracts: Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Zach Grenkie, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Freddie Freeman, Cole Hamels.
But, then there are the Albert Pujols, David Price, Prince Fielder, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, David Wright, Shin-Too Choo, Josh Hamilton deals.
Seems like half and half. You could maybe also argue that long term deals are fine when you give them to a top-tier talent under 30 without an injury history. Otherwise, stay away. It seems historically that the future-"Hall-of-Famers'" first contracts are great, but the the second contracts are rough (Miguel Cabrera, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, etc.)
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4 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:
Angelos was essentially forced to carry a higher payroll for a (very few) years because we just happened to have a bunch of good payers that happened to be all up for arb and kept getting raises. It wasn't by design, it is the LAST thing he wants to do but it isn't like you can non tender good young players producing. Throw in one 17m AAV deal to bring back a fan favorite and all of the sudden he is being called a free spender! LMAO Back to reality. You suckers will fall for it every time. He plays the fans like a fiddle and most are more than willing to "believe". Show me a single 85 yr old man who has ever changed his stripes. He is the same pathetic horrible owner he has always been, as cheap as possible unless he is getting his arm twisted in some way. But he will always regain the upper hand. It is what he does.
You want the truth about what he is? Manny Machado. Jonathan Schoop. That is what he is. And always will be.
This sounds like a Nestor Aparicio ramble. The O's had a payroll of $182 million last year and 9th overall, according to spotrac. They spent as much as the Cubs. Angelos isn't cheap. He just doesn't spend money as wisely as other owners.
Angelos is against rebuilds because he feels like fans deserve to see a decent team every year. That obviously failed and resulted in fourteen losing seasons by trying to put together teams with Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez, and Rafael Palmiero - but you can't say the man doesn't care.
He's the same guy who donated money anonymously to keep Baltimore City pools open. Complain about how the organization isn't run well from a baseball perspective - but it is nonsensical to complain about Angelos being cheap or not caring about the community.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
Do you honestly think the 2018 team has a realistic chance at even the second wild card as currently constructed?
As for rebuilds, I think they are fun. The losing part stinks of course but I'd rather watch young kids than overpriced vets if we are going to lose either way. I also enjoy tracking the minor leagues.
Quite honestly, if the O's can add two starters who can keep them in games - I don't see why this team can't compete with the Twins, Angels, and Mariners for the second wild card. Outside of the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Astros - the AL is kind of mediocre to outright weak.
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19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
You almost have to wonder if part of the plan is to leave the organization a mess?
By not adding MLB quality starters you are really waving the white flag. The AAA/AAAA rotation will get hammered often this coming season.
by not trading Manny, Zach, Brach, and perhaps Jones you are taking a very high risk of getting nearly nothing for them. But draft picks that are miles away.
by pausing on Schoop you are creating the Manny situations all over again.
the blunders tell me that the decision makers don’t care. The fantasy world of “competing” by Buck and Duquette is just ridiculous.
It was pretty obvious that a rebuild was/is needed based on how last season went and the Yankees adding and the Orioles dumpster diving.
We need New ownership in the worst way.
I don't fault the O's for going for it with this core. It seemed that was always the plan with everyone's contracts all ending the same year.
I was six when the O's made the playoffs in 1997. Didn't really appreciate it because I was a little kid and didn't understand the game.
It then took until I was 21 in 2012 to see a winning baseball team in this town. I graduated elementary school, middle school, high school, learned to drive, graduated from college, got my first big-boy job, bought a car, got my own place, could legally drink, and lost my virginity all before the O's could get a team on the field that could win more than 81 games again.
Rebuilds aren't fun. Let's enjoy a team with some real talent on it in 2018. If they are lousy this year, they have until July 31st to trade some guys and expedite the rebuilding process. But until then, let's see what happens when the boys actually take the field March 29th.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm assuming that cutting payroll didn't become a concern until last year's team was proven to be noncompetitive.
I also think that this year's free agents are generally pretty lousy and will all end up being regrettable signings by whatever team eventually gets them. I think that's why the most chatter we've heard through journalists about the O's this offseason has been in regards to trades.
Free agency is a bad way to build a team. A team like the O's needs to be able to develop pitching in-house, they just are really bad at it. Thus, the team's situation this offseason.
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1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:
Then you would complain about his being overly aggressive like AJ!
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Well, taking the bat off his shoulder every once in a while would probably help.
A few thoughts as spring training starts to get serious
in Orioles Talk
Posted
What's Sisco's speed like? His bat is pretty good as a leadoff hitter if he can move on the bases.