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HbgOsFan

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    “He is what he is?”: A study of players who had 10+ rWAR careers

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Frobby said:

    A lot of times I see posters who will declare about some 25-26 year old player, “he is what he is at this point.”   But how true is that?   To try to get a feel for it, I’m studying a group of position players who earned 10+ rWAR in their careers.  I intend to look at all position players who debuted from 2006-2010 who earned 10+ rWAR, but so far I’ve only looked at the 26 players from 2006 who reached that level.   

    Needless to say, players who reach 10+ rWAR are a fraction of all players.  In 2006, for example, 77 position players debuted, but only 26 reached 10 rWAR in their careers.   Here is some data I’ve gathered on this group.

    Debut age: The average was 23.0, but they varied widely.   Youngest was Adam Jones at age 20; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at age 27.

    First 2 WAR season: the average was 24.7, so basically two years after debut. The youngest were Troy Tulowitzki, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones at age 22.  Markakis, Mike Napoli (24), Andre Ethier (24) and Dan Uggla (26) produced 2+ rWAR in the season they debuted.  The oldest to have their first 2 WAR season were Ben Zobrist, Carlos Ruiz and Rajai Davis, at age 28.   Chris Young took the longest, producing a 2+ WAR season four years after he debuted.

    Best WAR season: The average age was 27.5.   Youngest was Troy Tulowitzki, who had his best WAR season at age 22, his first full season.   The oldest was Carlos Ruiz, who had his best WAR year at 33.  Russell Martin (31), Howie Kendrick (30), and Andrew Ethier (33) also had their best WAR season in their 30’s.

    Best 3 consecutive WAR seasons: the average was 27-29.   Earliest was our own Nick Markakis at 23-25; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at 31-33.   

    Best 5 consecutive WAR seasons: On average this went from 25.6 - 29.6.  Earliest were Markakis, Stephen Drew and James Loney at 23-27; oldest was Ruiz again at 31-35.   

    Best OPS+ season (400 PA minimum): averaged 27.3.  Markakis was youngest at 24; Ruiz oldest at 33.

    Best 3 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 27.1-29.1.  Markakis and Ruiz were the high/low.

    Best 5 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 26.0 - 30.0.  Nick was youngest at ages 22-26, Rajai Davis the oldest at 31-35.

    Last 3 rWAR season: average was 29.6.   The youngest was again Markakis, who never had a 3+ rWAR season after age 24.  (Actually, James Loney accumulated 10+ rWAR without ever having a 3 WAR season.)  Oldest was Ben Zobrist at age 37.  14 of the 26 had a 3+ WAR season after age 30.

    Last 2 rWAR season: average was 31.5.   Youngest were Matt Kemp and Chris Young, who had their last 2 rWAR seasons at age 27.   Oldest was Zobrist, again at 37.   Other oldies were Kendrys Morales at 35, and Ian Kinsler and Nick Markakis at 34.  (I felt the need to mention Nick there so that it wouldn’t seem like he did nothing after age 24!)  21 of the 26 players had a 2+ WAR season at age 30 or later.

    Last 110 OPS+ season: average was 30.9.   Three of the 10+ WAR players never had one — Michael Bourn, Stephen Drew and Rajai Davis.  Otherwise, the youngest to have his last was Chris Ianetta at age 25; oldest was Zobrist again.  18 of the 26 had a 110+ season at age 30 or later.   

    So, that’s the class of 2006.   It’s a slightly unusual group, with no serious candidate for the Hall of Fame.  (Kinzler produced the highest career rWAR at 54.1.)   But, I’m guessing it’s a pretty representative group with respect to the average age profiles and the fairly wide variety of career paths.  One thing I noticed was, a lot of these players never had 5 consecutive solid seasons.  The ones that did are generally the ones with the highest career WAR.

    If anyone has questions for me about this group, let me know.  
     

    The only question I have is how can anyone not realize the value you bring to this website.  Your retirement is our added gain.  This is great stuff, and as usual, you do your research.

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    Players who dropped out of the 2022 top 30

    in Minors

    Posted

    On 11/29/2022 at 9:53 AM, Frobby said:

    Here’s players who haven’t lost rookie status but dropped out of Tony’s top 30 (last year’s ranking shown):

    13. Jean Pinto: pitched to a 3.83 ERA in Aberdeen at age 21, striking out 10.1 per 9 but walking 4.5.

    14.  Maikol Hernandez: posted a .483 OPS in the FCL at age 18.

    15. Zac Lowther: Threw to a 10.31 ERA in Norfolk in 43.2 IP.  He missed about six weeks from mid-June through all of July. (I’m not 100% sure he has rookie status, but I believe he does. BB-ref shows him with 44 days of service.)

    21. Johnny Rhodes: Injured part of the year, he posted an .817 OPS at Aberdeen in 58 games but only .555 at Bowie in 25 games, at age 21.

    23. Brandon Young: pitched very well for three games at Bowie (2.03 ERA), but had TJ surgery (I believe) and missed most of the year.

    24. Creed Willems: posted a .586 OPS at Delmarva in 68 games at age 19, and allowed 70 stolen bases in 47 games caught, throwing out 20 (22% CS).   He did hit considerably better after missing 2+ weeks in July, posting an .824 OPS in his final 25 games spanning July 24 - Sept. 7.

    25. Mishael Deson: posted a .596 OPS at Delmarva at age 19 in 76 games.  He missed three weeks in July and was shut down in mid-August.

    26. Reed Trimble: injured to start the season, he returned to Delmarva in July and had a .747 OPS in 31 games, followed by .708 in 16 AFL games, at age 22.

    27. Donta’ Williams: posted a .690 OPS in 86 games at Aberdeen and had a 3 game cup of coffee at Bowie, at age 23.  Missed 3+ weeks in June and early July.

    28. Anthony Servideo: his season was almost a complete washout, as he played only 15 games in the FCL (.494 OPS) and 9 games for Delmarva (.382), at age 23.

    30. Raul Rangel: started the year with Delmarva, but was hurt after three starts.  Made one start in June but was shut down again.  Finally was able to throw in four FCL games in August.  In all, he was able to throw only 13 innings and was very wild, walking 14 while striking out 18, all at age 19.

    Of the players who dropped off the list, the one I’d question most is Pinto.  He had a pretty respectable season and was young for his level at Aberdeen.  I did notice that the O’s generally kept his starts to only 4 innings, so it seems he’s profiling as a reliever, which hurts his status a bit.

    As you can see, injuries played a big role in derailing a lot of these players’ seasons.   Hopefully with better health next year, some of them can bounce back.

     

    To me, this is the epitome of what Frobby brings to the board.  I found this really useful, and this is the type of research that brings me back four times a day (three times more than the better half would prefer).  Appreciate what you do.  Especially now that you are retired! 

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    Matt Harvey close to minor league deal. (Update: signed)

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

    The intent of distribution laws is not applicable here. Matt Harvey was not dealing/distributing prescription drugs, based on the testimony. Simply giving someone a pill or two is not akin to being a dealer, who does this for profit or in furtherance of a criminal organization’s profit. Again, it’s a false narrative.

    I am going to out myself here. I retire today, after more than 28 years as a law enforcement officer. I worked in drug enforcement for many years for a large agency in Florida, often assigned to task forces and such. So, I do have just a little background here. And no, I do not condone his sharing prescription drugs. I am just giving you context of what I have seen. The courts generally do not want those kinds of cases involving the common citizen, and they generally get rid of them with little consequence. 

    Please, do not tell me about assumptions that Skaggs ingested anything from Harvey. There is no evidence, testimonial or otherwise, that indicates that. Therefore, it does not exist. 

    When I referred to Matt as a solid vet, it had to do with his professional attitude, work ethic and demeanor. The example he set, according to everything I have read, was excellent. Let’s face it, you’re not wrong about the numbers, but there was a lot to like as well. The starts after the break were pretty good, then the injury. His four July starts we’re very good, 3-1, 2.45 era, 22 IP, 19 H, 14K, 2BB, .95 WHIP, .229 BA against. Overall, according to Fangraphs, his FIP/xFIP was 4.6/4.81 and he had 1.9 WAR. The guy is fighting his health issues every day. He is hungry to prove himself again. A low cost bet on a very competitive guy, I have no problem with that at all. 

    He is cheap, and a guy that if he does nothing, it is of no consequence. Matt is a known quantity to them. Cueto is such a good veteran option for a contender, and costs a good bit more. There were other options, and I am sure Elias pursued many that turned him down. That is the thing many forget, the player has to actually want to come here. 

    The opioid crisis in this country, and around the world, is killing people every day. According to the US Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), 130 people die each day to an opioid overdose. According to the CDC, in 2020, “prescription” opioids accounted for 44 deaths each day. This stuff makes “crack” and meth look like child’s play. I have seen far too much death from this from all walks of life. 

    Appreciate your service, good luck with retirement, and keep your observations coming.  I particularly enjoy what you offer on the Minors thread.

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    Should Mike Mussina’s number have been retired?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

    The thing is, Mussina was pretty loyal.  He signed one three year extension at a home team discount.  He offered the O’s the opportunity to extend him again for 5/$62.5 mm before he ever went on the FA market.  It’s Angelos who wasn’t loyal, so we shouldn’t make Mussina out to be some soldier of fortune.   

    Once he decided to go the FA route, however, there’s no reason in the world why he should have turned down the Yankees’ 6/$88.5 mm because it was from the Yankees.   Giving your own team a chance to resign you at a fair price is one thing; refusing to sign with your old team’s rival out of loyalty to your old team that wouldn’t pay you nearly what you were worth is just way too much to expect.   To suggest Mussina is any kind of turncoat is just absurd in my opinion.    So, you don’t want to retire his number?   Fine.  But don’t tell me it’s because he signed with the Yankees, as opposed to some other team.  That’s ludicrous.
     

    I have always been a little frosted at Mussina signing with the Yankees.  But as usual, I appreciate  Frobby's  analysis, which I always find to be thorough and balanced, and that is valuable.  I am reconsidering my thoughts about Mussina, not that I expect the world to stop and take notice.  Another reason why these message boards and the posters are so valuable.  Sorry for the ramble.

    Offending A Twitter Community

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    What I don't know - who urinated in Cody's cornflakes?  What I do know - Chuck works his derriere off providing summaries which I enjoy every day.  I appreciate the effort.

    What I don't know - how to set up a Twitter account.  What I do know - my life hasn't ended.

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    Longtime Hangout poster ScOtt has passed away

    in Classic Hangout Threads

    Posted

    These are the messages that hurt.  I always loved his die hard love of the Orioles, his die hard love of music, his die hard love of our favorite fan site.  Mornings when I was up early I would wander on to the music thread, and he was always gracious and informative on my questions of 1970s groups.  We have recently lost stalwarts who have made the site and our world a such a damn bit better.  He and his loved ones are in my prayers tonight.

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    Prayers and good thoughts for weams (Update: Weams has passed on after watching the O's beat the Yankees)

    in Classic Hangout Threads

    Posted

    Like Frobby, I am a lawyer.  Unlike Frobby, I wonder when the hell he sleeps, and how he writes great messages.

    On to Weams.  As I have mentioned in previous threads, the man was so good to my autistic triplets.  More than you know.

    So, the point of my message is, I gave to the Orioles Advocates in memory of Weams.  They were so gracious in their response, another donation had to be made from the triplets. 

    Here comes the difficult part of the message.  I feel so good making those donations.  Weams was such a wonderful soul, and I hope he and D can take comfort in making their memory extend.  Here's my disclaimer - I am not telling you to give - such a personal decision for everyone, dependent on so many individual circumstances.  But Weams and D have contributed so much, and I just wanted to give back.  Regardless of your circumstances, please think of Weams and D tonight.

    I have said too much.

     

     

     

     

      

     

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    Prayers and good thoughts for weams (Update: Weams has passed on after watching the O's beat the Yankees)

    in Classic Hangout Threads

    Posted

    4 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

    Mike's a champion fighter with a ton of people in his corner.   Until you've lived it, no one can fully understand how difficult it has been.  We're all very proud of how both of you have handled this.

    Could not have said this any better.  I am so proud of Dee and Mike.  I wish you could know what they have done, under such trying circumstances. 

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    Bowden looks at potential Yankee deals: Mullins to NY?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    Sorry - wasn't discussing his career, which was very successful.  This is along the lines of what I remember (1987 article, which, lacking computer skills, I am unable to properly post).  I am totally off topic, and apologize.

     

     

    TORONTO -- He has been called a flake, a jerk, a disruptive influence, a malcontent and an insensitive loner. But that's only April through August.

    In September, Doyle Alexander is a pitcher. Period.

    That's all the Detroit Tigers know him as. So what if his less-than-warm personality has caused problems in other places in other seasons. This is September, the Tigers are in a heated pennant race with the Toronto Blue Jays, and Alexander is 8-0 with a 1.40 ERA since arriving from Atlanta a month ago.

    If Alexander's people skills are lacking, the Tigers haven't noticed. Because all that matters now is winning, everyone is getting along just fine with Alexander.

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