BarclaySouthway
-
Posts
786 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by BarclaySouthway
-
-
14 hours ago, allquixotic said:
We don't need 4 Babe Ruths; we need 30 Chris Tillmans and Adam Joneses.
I don't want to seem to be picking on you because this was an interesting post, but I'm thinking 4 Babe Ruths and a replacement level team like the current O's would be better than a team of 12 Tillmans and 13 Joneses.
-
14 hours ago, allquixotic said:
The sad thing is, there's an enormously high chance that each of those #1 picks will either wash out, won't have staying power, or will get hurt before they're able to make a career out of it.
We can't build a baseball team around a strategy of picking up one free possibly good player per year. We need to acquire or develop something like 6 or 7 legitimately good players per year to compete. The 2014 O's didn't win because of the #1 picks we had on our team. They won because of Delmon Young, Chris Tillman, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and so many others we had picked up in trades or developed into good players. They won because of a critical mass of players with very timely results, many playing above expectations, doing better than their career numbers or having a career year.
Even if each year's #1 prospect turns into a Manny, and we pick each one, I don't think we would be a very good team. Let's say in the 2020 draft we pick a historically good 1B; 2021, a historically good SS; 2022, a historically good CF; 2023, a historically good SP. Let's say they all get to the majors in short order and are ready to break out immediately. OK, so what? If the rest of the team is as bad as they are right now, they have zero chance to compete. Even if they hold a lead for a couple innings, the pen will give it right back up. Our 2B, 3B, LF, RF, C, DH won't ever get on base or hit home runs. Optimistically, we might get to .500 in a season because of the extraordinary performance of four guys.
I think if -- if -- we get that lucky and have four amazing guys in the early to mid 2020s, we should trade them as soon as their high value is established. Basically it would be like trading Manny in the 2016 offseason, or even 2015. Get rid of them, and get a package deal of ML-ready or nearly ML-ready players with high upside in return. We don't need 4 Babe Ruths; we need 30 Chris Tillmans and Adam Joneses. We need players who are pretty good in their prime, but not HOFers. We have neither the farm system nor the budget of teams that could hope to stack up a team of hero after hero like the Dodgers and Yankees, who simply buy their way into a World Series. Our only chance of seeing the postseason is to build a "good enough" club of scrappy, nominally effective players and hope the dice are in our favor in the postseason against the elite clubs.
I think we already have some Jones and Tillman types in the minors. I don't think it's too unrealistic to expect a couple of our our young pitchers to turn out better than Tillman. But we don't have anyone that looks like a sure-fire future MVP candidate offensively.
I think it's a truism that championship-caliber teams have solid players from 1-25. Most of them have several Hall-of-Fame-level talents as well. I think we are putting so much emphasis on the draft because it's our most likely avenue to obtain a player of that caliber anytime soon, given the cards we'll be holding on deadline day and our current international presence. I don't see where it matters a whole lot if we pick #1 or #3 in 2020, but I totally understand why folks are obsessing over next year's draft pick.
-
20 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:
The official scoring does no justice to the surreal awfulness of Wynn's play in the 2nd inning of the second game. It was not a wild pitch. Wynns dropped strike three, the ball dribbled in front of him a few inches, he picked it up and fired a strike to second base. Unfortunately, no one else could think of a reason why they should be covering second base so the ball went into center field. Wynns must have lost track of the count or the outs. Either way, not what you really want to see from your catcher. Later in the inning, Cashner called Wynns out to the mound for a Bull Durham-esque mound visit talking to (Cashner assuming the Costner role). Brocail joined them on the mound with a box of popcorn to enjoy the show.
It really was some play. I've never seen anything like it. It was too wacky to even get upset about.
-
21 hours ago, bpilktree said:
I was going through notes on Rodriguez and found this interesting. Rodriguez doesn’t have elite upside but has chance at mid rotation type pitcher. How does a 6”5 kid that throws 95 and four pitches not have elite upside? If he was 6”2 and thorowing 93 that one thing. He could add another two mph with building a more solid frame then he has now easily.
Maybe they meant like a John Smoltz/Dave McNally/ Tim Hudson type mid-rotation starter?
-
I was impressed with his approach last year in Baltimore. He didn't look overmatched or anything.
I just don't see what position he's going to play if you put him on this roster. Platoon DH? He's the opposite of the versatile-type defender the new regime seems to favor.
-
Not sure what blank check means. Surely, you've got to give him 5 years to get back to .500-ish respectability considering the hole we've dug ourselves and our competition. In six years, if everything breaks just right, maybe we contend?
As far as judging him based on what the minor league system looks like, I think three drafts is fair.
Keep in mind how bad we are right now.
-
1
-
-
Josh Hader dominating on Monday. 6 batters, 6 K. Tied the record for most batters faced while striking them all out. 24 pitches, 22 fastballs
-
20 minutes ago, weams said:
So if everything breaks just right, he's another Schoop but at 3rd.
That's alright , I guess. I'm getting really tired of low OBA guys, though.
-
2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:
Always a good excuse to post this from xstats.org. Check out the site, it's worth it.
Dribble Balls
Year BIP H 1B 2B 3B HR AVG SLG BABIP wOBA All 107,594 13,385 12,528 834 21 2 .128 .137 .124 .112 2015 35,630 4,465 4,179 279 5 2 .130 .138 .125 .114 2016 33,555 4,088 3,852 228 8 0 .126 .133 .122 .110 2017 34,150 4,321 4,023 292 6 0 .130 .139 .127 .114 2018 4,259 511 474 35 2 0 .123 .133 .120 .111 I am trying to figure out how you get a home run on a dribble ball.
-
1 minute ago, Old#5fan said:
Not that I’m commenting unfavorably on your comment, but isn’t that sort of off topic on this thread? Just asking a question...but I would be more than happy to engage again in discussion about this subject - taking babies to baseball games. I have a 4 year old grandson now and he is the most precious thing in the world too me!!
I was just kidding. I actually pretty much agree with you on this topic. I spent half of one game at that damn playground and bounce house with a little one. Sometimes you really want to go to a game and don't have any other options. OK sorry to derail the thread.
-
3 hours ago, Es4M11 said:
Forgive me mods, but this is BS!
C'mon. If you take that away from Old Fan, he's not Old Fan anymore.
P.S. I took a 3 year old to the game earlier this year.
-
1
-
1
-
-
They've been getting him out with fastballs with 2 strikes. Why he wasn't looking fastball over the last couple games, I have no idea, I was kinda hoping he'd get plunked, since that worked wonders for Manny.
Oh, and he needs to try and lay one down the third base line in the right situation.
-
I guess Manny turns into the Hulk when he's angry. He flat out crushed a few this week. What a great player.
-
1
-
-
Didn't win the series, but fought hard and did what we needed to do. Kinda feels like we won it.
-
And 9/18/16!
-
Might be worth taking a ride up to Aberdeen to see.
-
OFFNY, your story about Game 7 is remarkably similar to mine. I was 7 years old and to me, the Orioles were always supposed to win. The end of that game felt like a death. I cried a little, and went out to the backyard/alley behind my house. I still remember that somebody had poured some oil or something in the neighbor's ivy across the alley and it was dripping out onto the pavement making a big ugly stain which mirrored my emotional state.
-
1
-
-
In both cases (Givens and Drake) we are talking about < 10 IP. I'd like to see a longer period of success before trying anything.
I agree, but Drake's 14 Ks in 7 IP is an awesome stat. I love to see one of these guys force their way on to the roster.
-
All the 50 year olds here are loving this. That theme music gives me chills. I always think of that Ellis Valentine throw in slow-mo.
-
When I said to redo the numbers' date=' I did not mean that a starting pitcher is worth more or less than a position player. The listing was giving just games missed, not how much they meant to the team. We could talk about that too, but let's list the acual games that the starting pitchers would have missed so we have a fair comparison on that single piece of information alone.[/quote']
But you would only apply that standard to starting pitchers. Not bench players, closers, LOOGYs, who also go long stretches without playing. Shouldn't we divide their games by some number as well? What about platoon players? If David Lough misses 50 games, but he's only played in 1/2 the games before that, do we divide it by two? Isn't it easier to just list the games and let anyone who is interested make whatever sense of it they will?
-
Also' date=' when you list games missed by starting pitchers, you aren't figuring the games that they would have played in (only 1/5 of the games), you are figuring in all of the games. Redo the numbers like that please and let's recount.[/quote']
You keep saying that. One missed start is worth way more than a game missed by a position player. You're suggesting that Frobby change the numbers for Tanaka, for example, to 13. Which would make it similar to the number of games Mike Napoli missed (14). You think that would more accurately represent the impact of each injury? Really?
-
It was nice, but I don't think it is sustainable.
-
I like Manny 3rd. Jones has more power and so does Cruz. Machado, Jones and Cruz at 3, 4, and 5.
That is what I would do. Leave Pearce at 2, since he gets on base. Put Cruz at 5 because he's more likely to just take a walk when he being pitched around. Just get your 5 best hitters up first and lefty/righty considerations be damned at this point.
-
who's season would you rather have:
I'll take the 89 wins over the 69 wins, thanks. Hell, we won 87 in '89 and lost the division on the second-to-last day of the season, and it's the 3rd best season we've had in 28 years.
Tony-OH on Vinny & Haynie (105.7)
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I'm glad you criticized the Gausman deal, Tony. You hear barely a peep out of any other media, and that deal sucked.