Filmstudy
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Posts posted by Filmstudy
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Assuming it can only be 1 player, Westburg would be tops with Cowser a close second.
But to me, the most significant step forward has been the starting rotation solidifying for 5+ spots which includes trade for Burnes, Irvin emergence, GRod dominance, Kremer, Bradish health, Means, and even Suarez spot starts.
Worst developments are the dropoffs in play from Mullins, Santander, and Hays.
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2 hours ago, Jagwar said:
He can play anywhere too. I wouldn't hesitate to put him in the outfield in an emergency.
This has been one of his biggest assets. And when you think back to when he was at AAA, all we heard about was how his arm wasn't strong enough for 3B and his range wasn't good enough for either 2B or SS. He's a plus defender now at both spots and there is no danger in him being relegated to 1B/DH/LF/RF in a move that would reduce the offensive advantage he brings.
Thinking back to all the Westburg concerns makes me wonder if Norby might be able to play passable defense at either 2B or 3B where his bat would provide significant value.
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The Diamondbacks absolutely destroy LHP (.857 OPS, tops in ML) and the Orioles are going to start back-to-back lefties in this series.
Don't get me wrong, I would not change the rotation now with things going well, but I'm going to be very impressed if they get another good start from Means after what Irvin just accomplished.
The Orioles are in a much better spot with regard to starter diversity than they were in 2023 and I think that's a very good thing for OPACY.
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You can put me down for .715 including a bump for more strict platoon play than previously in has career and what I believe is real decline in his game since last AS break.
It looked like he is finding the ball again from his few games at Bowie, so let's hope that's not a mirage.
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2 hours ago, catjuggler said:
i also think this is how it goes....gets Kjerstad every day at bats/
Lack of a position is hurting Kjerstad, but I really hope he stays and McKenna goes down for Hays.
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3 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:
I don't really get hating on the streak. Its something that hasn't been done to this level in a long time; the rarity of it makes it noteworthy, if nothing else. I don't need people talking about the streak to remind of the playoff streak - not like I'm going to forget that happened. But the regular season streak means that we haven't had a losing streak longer than - 4 games in two years. I kind of wish the streak was spoken about in those terms - longest losing streak only 4 games - rather than in terms of being swept. Because avoiding even a 5-6 game losing streak for two years is something worth noting, IMO, and that's basically what not being swept means.
Looking back at the schedule; they lost 6 in a row from 5/13-5/18/22. That includes the three game sweep in Detroit that is the last time they were swept, then they lost the first three games of a four game series vs. the Yankees. Since then, their longest losing streak is just 4, three different times - 6/29-7/2/22 (which was immediately followed by a 10-game winning streak), 6/30-7/2/23, and 9/12-9/15/23.
They also had three 3-game losing streaks - vs Boston 8/27-29 (4 game series), 5/6-5/8/23, and 9/20-9/22/23 (both split across two series)- ironically, that is one 4 game streak and one 3-game streak within two weeks of each other, while we were trying to clinch the division last year.
So, in 2 years, that's 3 streaks of 4 games, and 3 streaks of 3 games. I'm not going to do this for every team as a comparison, but that does seem pretty good. Longest being 4, and only 6 total in two years of 3 or 4, seems noteworthy. At the very least, the 'streak' of sweepless series being upheld means no losing streaks of 5+ games, and that to me is why the streak does hold some meaning, despite the playoff sweep.
I thoroughly appreciate this "glass is half full" approach and I suspect the bulk of Orioles fans do as well.
The streak and all the other implications such as the ones you mention are to be celebrated while our favorite team has it going and all I see is ORIOLES fans complaining like they're having to hear an update about the Patriots undefeated regular season every week. My god folks, this is your team.
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4 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:
The Orioles are way better than 50/50 to win a game. If they had a roughly .500 record over the unswept streak, your numbers would be valid. It's still impressive and unlikely they'd do what they did, but the "coin flip" should be more like 67/33 for these calculations.
There literally would be no difficulty in using any other level probability per game, but the reason I've stayed with coin flips is that there are a huge number of assumptions (starting with the notion that the probability should be level) that need to be explained if I were to use a different p(individual win). That doesn't work for a tweet or a post that I don't want to go on for a long time to explain the assumptions, but "coin flip" does, because the assumptions are commonly understood.
The fact that the other teams still ahead of the Orioles did it with substantially longer average series length makes them less impressive than what the O's have done and those teams also played .650-.700 baseball over the period of the streaks which is a result of a significant difference in top-to-bottom parity in the leagues. Both facts are too much to explain each time, but not too difficult to calculate on a coin flip basis.
For example, the previous AL record holders, the 1922-24 Yankees, using the coin-flip basis had approximately a 1 in 8,819 chance chance of going unswept in their 83 consecutive series.
But for folks who want to say "coin flip is not accurate", I'll produce this goalposting once for "levelized win probability" through the 103 series lengths the Orioles have played (1922-24 Yankees 83 series lengths in parenthesis):
.600: 1 in 952 (1 in 90)
.650: 1 in 102 (1 in 20)
.700: 1 in 19 (1 in 7)
1.000: 1 in 1
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The Orioles have gone 103 consecutive RS series without being swept, spanning 322 games including series of:
2 G: 8 times
3 G: 75
4 G: 19
5 G: 1
If the games were decided by coin flip, the odds of this occurring randomly would be approximately 1 in 785,670.
In addition, the Orioles have now staved off a sweep in a regular-season series finale 13 times:
5/19/22 NYY 9-6
6/22/22 Was 7-0
7/3/22 Min 3-1
9/18/22 Tor 5-4
9/21/22 Det 8-1
5/28/23 Tex 3-2
6/8/23 Mil 6-3
6/18/23 ChC 6-3
7/2/23 Min 2-1
7/19/23 LAD 8-5
8/10/23 Hou 5-4
4/14/24 Mil 6-4
5/8/24 Was 7-6
It's amazing that they've gone 13-0 in such games, but it might be even more impressive (qualitatively, because the assumptions of defining a non-coin-flip model are truly daunting) that they've only gone to a win-or-be-swept finale 13 times when expectation by coin flip would be 25.1875.
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4 hours ago, Malike said:
Loved Hyde's press conference. "We're going to stick with him". I guess you have 13 million reasons to despite him costing the team games.
The money is sunk at this point, but I don't think any polar answer is optimal here. Bullpen by committee until someone emerges. It's a little more difficult with the 3-batter rule, but that's how they need to roll and I credit Hyde for being ready with the quick hook for the last 10 days or so.
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3 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:
How about something simple like a heads-up display which allows the umpires to call pitches from the CF camera. I can't believe tying that into a visor would be difficult at all these days.
By this I mean the CF camera view would include a properly sized box for the hitter similar to what we see on TV. The bulk of the really egregious errors seem to be low in the zone (where the umpire has to work off the catcher's movement because his view is partially if not fully obstructed) and inside or outside when the umpire is lined up on the other side (again partially obstructed). While this would still technically be human umpiring, I'm guessing truly questionable calls would drop by 85-90%.
BTW, folks might consider this robo umpiring, but this is still miles behind the heat maps and other systems they have in use for cricket right now.
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How about something simple like a heads-up display which allows the umpires to call pitches from the CF camera. I can't believe tying that into a visor would be difficult at all these days.
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18 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
I want to see Urias or McKenna back there to give people here more reasons to be upset with them.
I was thinking the exact same 2 players for a slightly different reason.
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The Orioles are 3-4 in 1-run games and 9-3 in games decided by 5+ runs.
One basic truth in identifying great teams is that they regularly beat the living snot out of their opponents (and thus have high run differentials), but it is very difficult to maintain an outstanding record in 1-run games.
The Orioles are in a position to improve their 1-run record (and play more 1-run games) but I honestly don't think they'll finish worse than .667 for the season in games decided by 5+ runs.
As a point of reference, the 1969 Orioles, who had the best record in team history (109-53, .673) were 35-21 (.625) in 1-run games but 30-8 (.789) in games decided by 5+ runs.
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3 minutes ago, Yossarian said:
And Mateo could be our solution to bullpen depth.
True dat. We've seen his arm.
Are we just going to sit on all these great ideas or is one of you going to put together a slide deck to send to Mike, Sig, and Brandon?
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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
This is the solution. Mountcastle to LF. Holliday to CF. Mayo to 1B.
I can't see a reason why Mayo should play 1B when he can be the backup C and Rutschman can play CF on his days off.
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3 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:
With all due respect, those four "tier" ideas of yours are so laughably nuts, those "tiers"brought me to "tears" laughing at them.I have to assume you are joking.
Just to be clear, it's "tiers of theirs" (from the Reds Forums) and not "tiers of yours" (as in mine), since Reds fans are unlikely to see these.
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4 hours ago, baltfan said:
Link for this so I can see the comments on their side.
https://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?125910-Best-teams-by-26-and-under-hitters
It's the 2nd post in this thread.
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Remember, this is not me suggesting these...
I'd do the following:
Tier One: Superstar for Superstar
Prospects Division: Rhett Lowder for Jackson Holliday
Big-time trades take big-time... guts. Lowder's been nails, while Holliday struggled greatly in his first cup of coffee. That said, he's absolutely loaded with talent. This would be a case of trying to strike while the iron was hot and would likely take a second prospect as well. (I'm guessing Edwin Arroyo might do it, though he might not.) Still, Holliday is the only reason I'd consider moving EDLC to another defensive spot-- likely 3B, with Marte moving to RF when he comes off the suspended list. Unlikely? Of, for sure. Impossible? Probably. But that's what it'd take to get me to part with Lowder at this point.
Tier Two: Division One Starters
Andrew Abbott or Graham Ashcraft for Ryan Mountcastle, Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo (AAA)
Mayo's killing it in AAA and has all the attributes CES had last year. Kjerstad just has "it"-- it seems like he's a tough out I hated to see up to the plate this weekend. Both will be better. Abbott or Ashcraft makes some sense, then, as a partner. It'd hurt short-term to see one of them go. Long-term? The Reds probably win that trade.
Tier Three: Division Two Starters
Brandon Williamson for Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle is a solidly average OF currently playing above his pay grade. Speaking of, he's going to get expensive relatively soon. I'd guess Baltimore might be inclined to get more playing time for its other players at the expense of a relative spare part. Mountcastle is that. For the Reds, he'd be a fine LF/ DH/ 1B option and a RH hitter.
Tier Four: Maybe for Maybe
Chase Petty or Connor Phillip for Sam Basallo
Petty and Phillips have been major disappointments. I'd consider just about any Red pitching prospect aside from Lowder at this point. Basallo is a 19-year-old holding his own as a catcher in AA. It'd likely take both Petty and Noelvi Marte to make that deal happen, but I'd do it gladly.
JAG for JAG
Lucas Sims, et al, for Ryan McKenna
Relievers are fungible, and Baltimore might well need more as the season wears on. Dealing for McKenna strengthens the Red bench. (I loathe Bubba.)I hope the Orioles would hang up the phone laughing at any of these proposals.
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The Orioles' opponents to date have an overall win % of .523
The Orioles' opponents in games not against the Orioles have a win % of .547
The Orioles' opponents in games against the Orioles have a win % of .324
The Orioles' success to date is far more about the Orioles than their opponents.
The next 9 opponents have a combined win % of .457 (includes a double count of Toronto, against whom they will play 2 series.
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3 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:
Marcelino Lopez had a WHIP of 1.39 but nonetheless had a 2.08 ERA in 1970. He was dealt after the season and done after 1972 also. If you bought a pack of 2nd-series Topps cards from 1972, Lopez was the Oriole you did not want to see.
Make that 1971 Topps.
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3 hours ago, now said:
Awesome research, thanks. I was a fan in 1974 but had forgotten that string of five shutouts.
This last two weeks of rotation excellence (and your list) is giving me flashbacks to the summer of love (1967), when I started to make game logs to savor the strings of shutouts and low-hit gems by Oriole starters. Looking back now at the game logs kept by Baseball-Reference (manually, without your sorting skills!), it's hard to identify exactly which streak so impressed my teenage fan-meter, or even which year. Certainly 1968 was all about low scoring league-wide.
Maybe it was the stretch 22-27 May 1967 featuring Phoebus, Bertaina, Barber, McNally, and Phoebus again (good old 4-man rotation!), including three scoreless outings. Or Hardin and Brabender joining Phoebus, McNally and Palmer from 15 to 20 September, 1967.
What about 1969, with Cuellar, Lopez and Leonhard joining the previous cast of McNally, Phoebus, and Hardin, twirling 10 starts (13-22 June) while allowing only 12 runs.
I didn't see any of Phoebus, Bertania, and Lopez pitch.
Tom Phoebus took his control problems to the NL after the 1970 WS in the Pat Dobson trade and his career was over after 1972.
Frank Bertania had a regular issue 1965 Topps (individual) card and was then featured on an Orioles rookie stars card in 1966 with Dave Johnson and Gene Brabender. He was done after 1970 and his age 26 season.
Marcelino Lopez had a WHIP of 1.39 but nonetheless had a 2.08 ERA in 1970. He was dealt after the season and done after 1972 also. If you bought a pack of 2nd-series Topps cards from 1972, Lopez was the Oriole you did not want to see.
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6 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:
Oriole starters haven't walked anyone in the entire series either.
After 1 BB by Kremer today, 18 Ks, 1 BB for the starters vs the Reds.
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11 hours ago, kidrock said:
Great points Ken. Love the depth of the starters this year as well. Very few implosions.
side note: loved your draft day content. Very entertaining and informative. Go birds
Thanks, Kidrock, Appreciate you!
During my entire time as a fan, I can never recall the Orioles having this problem where they had too many good starters to fit them all in and my first year as a fan, the Orioles had 4 20-game winners.
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The Orioles had not had such a streak in a single season since 1989, but they had an overlap streak from 1995-96. It's the 18th such streak in team history. The other 17 are below. If you were a fan in 1974, you almost ceratinly remember the 5 straight shutouts amid a 10-game win streak that rocketed the Orioles back into the race vs the Red Sox and Yankees from 8 back on the morning of 8/29/74. Even if you weren't a fan then, Palmer brings it up all the time.
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The best development of 2024 so far?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Blocked out Holliday as one of the big disappointments as well.
Any of the 4 (Mullins, Santander, Hays, and Holliday) may play their way out of disappointment status the rest of the way.