Filmstudy
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Posts posted by Filmstudy
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1 hour ago, 24fps said:
1080i video is redrawn a half frame (field) at 60 times per second. Progressive footage like 1080p is 30 whole frames per second but often converted to interlaced format for transmission.
If you are doing this on an ongoing basis, here's a suggestion: download the free version of one of the numerous non-linear editors out there like Avid or DaVinci Resolve and throw the clip on a timeline for your measurement. Manually clicking through hundreds of frames seems like it would be needlessly cumbersome not to mention slow.
It's not bad at all in terms of the clicking. I probably do it 3-5 times a game for marginal ATS calls on pass plays (for which I only need to click 90 times/3 sec) and it takes 30 seconds or less each time. That said, I'm sure folks who have more facility with the video software could go through the process you described in less time.
Looking at what you're saying above, it seems like I should have 60 clicks per second, but the CBS broadcasts are 1080i and are exactly 30 clicks per second while SNF (1080p?) and Fox (720p, I believe) broadcasts are 60 clicks per second (easily calibratable to the on-screen clock). Does this make sense with your understanding of how the video is transmitted and captured by a DirecTV (or other) DVR?
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2 hours ago, hutchead said:
I just used the stop watch on my phone. Not the most accurate way to do it but the only way I know how.
Briefly, here is the method I use with a DirecTV DVR for all sorts of timing in football analysis:
1. From a recording on your DVR, hit pause at some point shortly before the ball is released by the pitcher
2. While still on pause, use the FF button to advance the video 1 "frame" at a time. On 1080i, the screen is redrawn 30 times per second, so each click is 1/30th of a second. On 720p or 1080p, it's 60 frames per second. So timing should be accurate to either 1/30th (0.033) or 1/60th (0.017) of a second
3. Advance the video to the point of contact--It is easy to go forward, but difficult to go backward, so you need to advance slowly to fin the closest point
4. From that point, count the number of FF clicks until Gunnar hits 3rd base, you should actually be able to see the image move with each click, so it's easier to count these than you might think
5. Divide clicks counted by 30 to get seconds for the event. For example, if you get 322 clicks, it's 10 and 22/30 seconds (10.73 sec). This assumes the MASN broadcast is in 1080i.
I've been using this method for more than 15 years and you can confirm calibration with an NFL game where the clock is on the screen. Since you don't have that in baseball, you just have to know whether it's 30 or 60 clicks per second and you'll know that by whether it's an 11 or 22-second triple.
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10 hours ago, Malike said:
For sure, I don't think any rational person thought he was a 1.200 OPS guy. His sample size is still small but I'd be happy with a .750-.780 OPS for the season.
Starting point has changed. Given the fact he has approx 1/7th of his season in the books at 1.139, to OPS just .780 for the season, he'd have to drop off to under .730 the rest of the way. That sort of drop off wouldn't be acceptable to me.
I'd like him to OPS .800 the rest of the way for roughly .850 for the season. The more they use him in a platoon role, the better I think that number might be.
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2 hours ago, hutchead said:
I have it on dvr and I timed it four times. I got 10.75, 10.80, 10.74, and 10.78.
Can I ask how you timed it vs the DVR? Did you use a stopwatch or count click with pause/FF, or something else?
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46 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Gunnar Henderson triples (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. | 04/22/2024 | MLB.com
Do me a favor and time this, starting with contact until Gunnar hits 3B. I've done it three times and came up with 10.73, 10.79 and 10.81 seconds. Tell me what you get.
So far as I'm aware, the fastest triples of the Statcast era were 10.75 seconds, by Bryan Buxton and Corbin Carroll.
No one in the MLB is close to Buxton's speed on triples - Bring Me The News
D-backs rookie Corbin Carroll paces fastest home-to-3rd time since 2020 (arizonasports.com)
If you have the game on DVR, you can time it accurately to 0.03 seconds by the "clicks" method (I am assuming the MASN broadcasts are in 1080i). Is it contact to touch at 3rd base?
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As of the end of the Angels series, Cowser has 69 PAs and would need to have 75 to qualify. Assuming he plays every day, he should be there within 2 weeks even at the bottom of the order.
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30 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Well, I think he’s legitimately injured and it’s not a “guise.” With a veteran player, they usually give them just a few rehab games, especially if their injury didn’t keep them off the field long. So I’d put the short rehab at 70%, long rehab 25%, option 5% (and that may be high). I realize that Hays has hit very poorly, but I just don’t see the O’s putting him in the minors for any extended period. He did seem to be swinging better over the few games prior to his injury.
I'm going to assume your "short rehab" includes the possibility he'll return to the O's without rehab at all. If that's the case, our predictions of the outcomes are extremely close.
With regard to the use of the word "guise" I'm not suggesting that he's not hurt, but the fact he is means the Orioles have an excellent excuse (and one that is probably more palatable to Hays) to keep him in the minors for a reset.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
If so, probably just for 2 days or so.
I'd handicap it differently, even though Austin hit the ball more solidly the last week.
After his 10-day stint on IL, I think there is perhaps a 85% chance he goes on rehab with the residual chance due to a gaping hole in the Orioles lineup/bench which has been exposed.
Assuming he goes on some form of rehab assignment, there are at least 3 groups I'd offer as qualitatively different outcomes:
1. He goes on rehab for 5 days or less and either a hole/spot develops or he starts hitting right away
2. He goes on rehab for between 6 and 20 days (max rehab time for a position player) and the Orioles use much more, if not all of the shot clock before making a decision. It could be a matter of Hays not hitting particularly well in the minors or the Orioles playing well with everyone healthy.
3. The club reaches the end of 20 days and uses the remaining option on Hays to leave him there because the O's don't have room given the set of quality OF/DH/1B they have and don't have an easy roster move to make. The Orioles may be forced to trade him if this occurs, but I would not be shocked if he returns when an injury opens up a spot.
Please let me know if you can think of any other possibilities that are not subsets of these 3 outcomes.
If I am handicapping the 3 options, I'd say it's:
Return to the big leagues immediately after 10 days: 15%
Short rehab assignment (option 1): 50%
Long rehab assignment (option 2): 25%
Optioned after rehab (option 3): 10%
Effectively, the Orioles will have already optioned Hays to the minors for a reset with option 2, but under the guise of the injury.
I'd like to hear from as many other posters as would care to handicap these 4 outcomes. Simply post your percentages for each of the 4.
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8 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’d say it’s as good a time as any for Hays to have a short IL stint. Can’t take Cowser out of the lineup right now anyway.
With Hays on the 10-day IL, would you expect a rehab stint for Hays following the IL?
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4 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
I definitely had Westburg marked down as a trade chip as I thought others like Holliday and Mayo would be too good for him to snag a full time position and thought it was a better use of talent to trade him than turn him into a utility player. Wow, was a wrong. Looks like Westburg will be around for a long time.
His power is the real thing, even though it may be marginalized by OPACY to some degree. I am loving the gap and off-field power to date.
Westburg's success is part of the reason I really want Norby to get a shot.
Norby in 167 AAA games: .296/.363/.504/.867 over ages 22-24
Westburg in 158 AAA games: .283/.366/.533/.899 over ages 23-24
I'm aware Westburg is (especially with information we have now) the better defensive prospect, which makes a lot of difference, but with the organization short on RHBs who can actually hit, Norby would more likely than not be a nice role player/4th OF/emergency IF/PH at a min. His L/R splits are not much different over the last 3 years, which I would take as a good thing. He can relieve LHB of big platoon disadvantages and stay in the game with minimal matchup risk if that holds at the MLB level.
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The illness and reported weight loss have increased the chance he gets sent down from my perspective. Let's review:
1. Hays is struggling like we haven't seen since Chris Davis
2. There is no easy way to get him playing time vs any RHP when Cowser, Mullins, Santander, O'Hearn, Mounty, and Rutschman are all hitting
3. The Orioles desperately need his bat to come to life vs LHP but he is a DP waiting to happen
4. That leaves playing time as a defensive replacement and even with the expanded LF at OPACY, that's a modest defensive context and a large offensive responsibility relative to other players in the league
Norby may struggle when he is first called up, but he would give the club what it needs as a viable RHB with some positional versatility for 2 weeks or longer if required and service time can't be a consideration any more for Connor. That may be long enough to get Hays back on track.
I still think the Orioles may show undue loyalty to Hays as a player-relations move, but that also sends a terrible message to the Norfolk 4 who have to be wondering what they need to do. I'd now handicap it as 15-25% that he gets sent down by 5/15.
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How about a path to the majors for each of the 4 potential promotees:
Norby: Priority for his call up because 1) service time is not an issue at his age, 2) He's RHB and the Orioles need more balance that way, 3) He's proven at AAA as a hitter, 4) he has flexibility to play multiple spots (probably all at a sub-par level), and 5) I think they'd do the least damage by sticking him in a platoon role where he plays twice a week and otherwise just PHs. I'd call up Norby if Hays is hurt or if the club decides Hays needs time at AAA to work out his problems when the parent club can't afford to bench a better hitter.
Kjerstad: Recalled in case of an injury to Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn, or Mullins in which case he'd move into a DH/RF role. He would be in the show for the majority of other MLB teams, but not here. Next year, he must start the season with the team and I expect no QO for Santander to make room. O'Hearn will probably still be in Baltimore with the club option unless he regresses as a hitter, but plate discipline had improved YoY, so I expect him to stay. Mullins will be 30 and in his final Arb year in 2025 which probably means he has little trade value, but if injuries around the league in CF generate value for him, the Orioles should probably be willing to sell at the deadline, even if he's still hitting like he is now.
Stowers: Recalled in case of an injury to 2 of Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn, Mullins. It's a long shot, but I don't see another way. Making his situation more dire is the imbalance of LH bats producing in the lineup. I expect they'll trade him by the end of this season if a spot does not develop.
Mayo: I think he waits until 2025, but the way he gets to the show this season is an injury to Mountcastle. I don't see another path and the Orioles would certainly need his bat if Mounty went down. Service time and development are both a concern for Mayo right now and he (like many others) needs to cut his K rat and play better defense.
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38 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I think all that’s fair. I just think that if he really posts an .862 OPS, he’s highly likely to get more than 402 PA. Gunnar had 445 PA just in games started by RHP last year, plus 177 in games started by lefties, and his platoon splits were pretty big. I think if Cowser only ends up at 402 PA, it’ll be because he’s not hitting way better than the other OFs - below .800 OPS, for sure.
You're probably right that he'd get more PAs and Hyde would eschew any strict platooning, even if splits are big and that would negatively impact my projection. Incredibly, .800 OPS for the rest of the season (at the same rate of play he's had to date) would bring him in very close to .862 for the season.
One big thing that has changed since the days of Lowenstein/Roenicke is the number of roster spots for hitters and pitchers. In 1980, that was approximately 15 position players and 10 pitchers. Now it's 13 and 13. The change makes straight platooning far more difficult.
As a point of reference, John Lowenstein in 1982 had only 382 PAs despite being the most productive hitter in baseball on a per AB or PA basis with a 1.071 OPS and 194 OPS+.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
I don't think anyone would dislike with those numbers, but I'd argue if he puts up those numbers, he's going to get more than 402 PAs this year. Probably close to 500 PAs. So what does his numbers project to at 500 PAs?
I'd be happy to reproject this every 2 weeks, but one assumption I'm making is that there is some regression to his platoon history. For that reason, I don't think it's nearly as simple as 500/402 times the numbers I posted because his marginal PAs would be disproportionately vs LHP which would be very likely to hurt his rate stats.
Also need to project for some injury risk if we're talking O/U numbers. If you were projecting OBJ's receiving yards last year that was a central assumption, but even a young ballplayer needs that.
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I'll put an estimate in on Cowser now for the full season:
AB: 402
H: 110
Avg: .274
2B: 29
3B: 1
HR: 21
RBI: 82
BB + HBP: 51
OBP: .355
SLG: .507
OPS: .862
I don't think he will fully take an everyday role for the 2024 Orioles, which should help his rate stats and reduce his aggregate stats a little, but the HR on Sunday is going to go a long way to keeping him in the lineup full time. The projection I'm least certain taking the over is the BB+HBP total, which draws a lot on his 2023 and MilB patience.
I'm not sure if this will be good enough to get him the ROY, but he should be in the discussion. These stats are very similar to what Casas posted last season in a much friendlier hitter's environment.
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Maureen and I went to the game on Friday night and noticed what must be a programming error in the scoreboard statistics.
Specifically, the lineup area and posted stats for each hitter were correctly adding ABs as they occurred but double counting hits.
For example, Cowser started the game 11/24 (.458). After going 2 for 2, his batting average was posted at .577 in the lineup column (15/26) indicating he had gone 4 for 2 on the night. The same was happening for the Brewers.
We didn't go to Saturday's game, so it may already have been fixed. If one wanted to point this error out to the Orioles, who might be the point of contact?
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4 minutes ago, baltfan said:
He ain’t going to AAA. The club would never do that to a veteran like Hays.
There is a line that was ascribed to Gollum, but I'm not sure if it was part of the Books, Movies, or a BBC radio reenactment I've heard which is one of my favorite of his:
"Silly Hobbits don't know how long 'never' is."
I think probabilistically, so please handicap it for me from your perspective. Does never in this case mean 0%? Or does it mean more like I think that it's between a 5% and 15% chance to occur that requires multiple overlapping circumstances but is still a meaningful possibility?
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8 hours ago, Explosivo said:
I agree and as we know from Hays he is a Jekyll and Hyde player. He will have a great first half but a terrible second half and vice versa. Let’s hope that plays into a killer second half. That being said, he has an option and he has also earned some leeway to figure it out, but if I’m Hyde, I’ve got a mental timer on him figuring it out by May. If that doesn’t happen, it’s an easy sell to him to send him down to AAA so he can get his mind right.
When he does, he can come back and mash and all will be well. In the long run, it’ll be good for him, truly.
I think May 1 is a reasonable deadline for Hays to start hitting or be sent to AAA. If he turns in an OPS of .550 or less for the rest of the month, I think it will be entirely reasonable to pull the trigger.
He hit a ball really well tonight, which is a good sign, but his relatively limited number of hard-hit balls also need to start turning into production.
One other benefit of such a move is that it sends an encouraging message to the guys at AAA who are rotting on the vine with lots of AAA experience (Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, but not yet Mayo). Sending Hays down and bringing Norby up as the 4th outfielder/extra infielder for 2-4 weeks could give Hays time to get back in the groove and the Orioles a chance to see Norby in a shot vs ML pitching. It would also show the minor leaguers that they are not all in a dead-end situation and the Orioles will make timely changes in a potential championship season.
If Norby does hit at the big league level and Hays finds his way at AAA, then you can recall Hays and DFA either Urias or Mateo.
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34 minutes ago, interloper said:
STEAL.
Good lord y'all. I was yelling at the TV last night at the weird lack of aggression at times.
-Mullins worked a leadoff walk in the 7th and just stayed there as we hit into a DP.
-Holliday reaches on an error to lead off the 8th and stayed there (granted it was a lefty on the mound), and we nearly hit into an inning ending DP if not for the safe call at 2B.
-Mullins walks with 1 out in the 9th against Jansen who can't hold runners at all, and he never moved. He reached 2B on the walk to Westburg with 2 outs, but Mullins absolutely could have swiped both 2B and 3B in that inning against Jansen.
I'm not sure what the hesitancy was about, especially on the road. Just let it rip out there boys.
The Cowser hit-and-run play with a 2-0 count had me screaming at the TV. If it WAS truly a H&R, it's a bad play because it creates a DP opportunity for a runner who was ready to eat Jansen alive with a huge lead.
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2 hours ago, Explosivo said:
If hays continues to scuttle…I think it might be time to send him down to AAA to figure it out and bring Stowers up. Stowers does have success against lefties so he might be a good backup for both Cowser and Mully.
Handicapping this right now (and assuming the information about the remaining option is correct), I'd say the odds of Hays being sent to the minors is between 5 and 15%, so far from impossible. To take a shot at what it might take, I'd say Cowser continuing to hit and another 2 or 3 for 20 from Hays ought to do it. Then Hays would not be able to displace Cowser and Elias could fairly say the only way to get him right is by playing every day at AAA. Remember, this is a team that sent the AL WHIP leader to the minors last year to get right.
If Hays is sent down, I think Norby will be the callup to get another RH stick in a LH lineup. His service time is not a concern at this point (as it is with Mayo) and I don't see what more he has to prove at AAA.
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2 hours ago, emmett16 said:
Ladies and Gentlemen, your starting left Fielder Colton Cowser.
Let's hope that Cowser's status as an established player gets him lots of rope if he has a brief, half-season slump.
Seriously, I assume Hays will start tomorrow vs the lefty since it's the only 1 the Orioles will face for a while. If he simply enters for Cowser when a LHP is inserted and starts vs LHP, he'll get more ABs than Colton. However, we are at the point where Cowser deserves some test ABs and starts vs LHP and not just the RHP platoon role.
Absolutely love Cowser's inside-out approach and I think we've seen that when Mountcastle is at his best he hits a mess of balls to RF.
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I typically watch the game delayed so I can FF through commercials, but Austin Hays ABs have become fast forward TV.
He is completely lost at the plate and he can't seem to find the ball vs LHP or RHP. The Orioles need him to hit LHP with so many weak bats vs Southpaws.
Right now the Orioles are depending on just a handful of players vs LHP:
Hit LHP well: Mountcastle, Rutschman, Santander, Mateo (Rutschman and Mateo are the only ones with an OBP over .621 coming into Sunday)
The rest of the lineup:
Hays can't hit anyone
Hicks led the team in OPS vs LHP last season but he is gone.
Gunnar has been terrible vs LHP for 2023-24 (did not look at '22)
As a team, the Orioles are hitting .188/.279/.250/.529 vs LHP through 112 PAs which is NOT nothing
As the season moves on, the Orioles will add more LHB to this lineup when some of Holliday, Kjerstad, and Stowers are promoted. This is a team that needs another bat that mashes LHP to protect all of the talented LHH. If this were Strat-O-Matic, those guys are literally a dime a dozen. Working with the constraints the Oriole have, Norby might be the best option since I think we're past the point of being concerned about service time.
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Cowser is in the lineup vs a RHP the day after an off day. I think this is a good sign the Orioles may be moving to a platoon now.
Of course the Pirates are scheduled to start LHP the next 2 days, so we probably won't know for a while and this may also have influenced the decision to start Cowser today.
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How about Wandisson Charles?
2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread
in Orioles Talk
Posted
If Heston plays today and hits 2 HRs they might have a difficult choice to make when Hays hits .250 for 5 games at AAA and says he's healthy.