He hit 38 last year and 47 the year before. I don't see any reason he can't hit 40+ again.
Completely agree with you that the burden of his contact is completely overblown by fans. Enough of it is deferred that it doesn't sting as bad as if it were $23 per.
I'm not arguing that it is a good contract or was at the time, but I'm optimistic that Chris can still provide solid production and some monster months.