luismatos4prez
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Posts posted by luismatos4prez
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1 minute ago, CallMeBrooksie said:
I think I can speak for all O's fans when I say it absolutely does not mean anything to win 62 vs. 58 games. Zilch.
I can sympathize with your argument to keep Villar and pay him the ~$10 mil. It's not an unreasonable argument and I wouldn't be upset in the slightest if they decide to go that route... but it's disingenuous to act like the flip-side of that argument is some sort of lunacy. $10 mil IS a lot for a rebuilding team to pay Jonathan Villar, who is a decent candidate for regression next year. His trade value is not much at that price-point.
$65M is an extremely low payroll already. I don't see any benefits to lowering that to $55M, but correct me if I'm wrong there.
Winning 62 games vs 58 games absolutely means something to me. I watch most games. I want to see the team win every time I watch.
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I agree with Boras. Tanking is detrimental to the league.
I'm a broken record. But the fact that some think non-tendering Villar (or similar moves) is good strategy is frustrating to me. What does that ~$10M saved do for the club? What do they do with that money that's more productive than having a good baseball player play for the baseball team?
Winning 62 games instead of 58 means something to the fans that attend/watch those 4 games. And the payroll is already plenty low enough for a rebuild. About $65M without deferred money this year. About $80M lower than it was 2 years ago. Good for 29th in the majors last year, maybe low enough for 30th this year. And that's with Villar, Givens, Mancini, etc.
Non-tendering Villar is an awful idea. Trading him is fine, but I don't want to see a cash dump trade like Jim Johnson for Weeks. Villar's a valuable asset even with a high salary.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm curious why you think that is true.
I do know that when I was attending the Defense Language Institute, enrolled in the Korean program, they had Japanese listed as a category 3 language and Korean as a category 4.
They're similar levels of difficulty in my experience, but the Korean writing system is tremendously easy to learn (especially compared to Mandarin and Japanese).
Good for Brooks! No loss to the Orioles.
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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:
Givens ain't getting Edwards.
With the Orioles salary being comically low right now, they could agree to take on some portion of the $67.5M owed to Wil Myers in exchange as part of a trade.
I'm certain it won't happen, and I don't know enough about MLB budgets to argue it should, but it's a fun idea. Gives the Orioles farm system a boost, and lets the Padres spend money on players who can actually play baseball well this winter (unlike Myers and Hosmer).
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A general prospect question:
Does anyone know of any guys who were like Carmona, Encarnacion, Sparks, etc. and put up bad hitting lines for a few years in the low minors but were toolsy enough to have potential and eventually put it all together and became successful big league hitters?
I can't think of any, but I'm sure they exist.
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- Rutschmann
- Hall
- GRod
- Hays
- Mountcastle
- Diaz
- Baumann
- Henderson
- Kremer
- Lowther
- A. Hall
- Harvey
- Akin
- Rom
- Stowers
- McKenna
- Bannon
- Fenter
- Wells
- Watson
- McCoy
- Cumberland
- Sedlock
- Zimmermann
- L. Rodriguez
- Stauffer
- Zebron
- Hanifee
- Welk
- Elio Prado (Cashner acquisition)
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The Nationals cut a huge chunk into the Orioles fan base, have much better ownership, a much higher budget, and now a world series championship. It's hard not to be disappointed.
Very parallel to the Ravens coming into the area and becoming a successful franchise quickly while the once top tier team (Redskins) struggles under terrible leadership.
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Pat Valaika = Jack Reinheimer. He won't make it through the winter on the 40 man roster.
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Peoples would be a great pickup and we definitely need depth. But is the consensus that Akin isn't ready? He led the International League in strikeouts this past year and his ERA (4.73) was below league average (4.90).
A starting rotation of Cobb, Means, Bundy, Akin, and Wojo seems serviceable to me. It's just the drop-off after that is enormous.
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
That isn't the only factor in play.
I'm all in favor of trading him for value if that's an option. It's non-tendering him that I find unacceptable.
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2 minutes ago, AZRon said:
Yeah, I'm uncertain why so many posters seem so concerned about besting Tampa Bay for the lowest MLB payroll. The Orioles have already lopped off $100M from their 2017 payroll. Does anyone here access to Mike Elias's 2020 MLB player budget?
Exactly. If that $10M isn't spent on Villar, is there some better use for it that helps the team's future? I don't accept that the payroll being $55M instead of $65M in 2020 helps the team's future in any meaningful way.
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I will be very disappointed if the Orioles non-tender Villar, even at that high price tag. Not counting the deferred money, the budget is around $65M with those high arb. numbers included.
Villar is worth $10M. Trading him if you can get an okay return is a good move. Simply letting him walk because you want to save $10M on an already extremely low, noncompetitive budget is unacceptable to me. The payroll is already around the bottom of the league. Saving an extra $10M so the fans get to watch a Breyvic Valera type player bumble around the infield instead of a major leaguer is a bad move. Is there a more productive use of $10M to the team next year?
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I don't think the Padres are going to put together a contender.
I did see an idea on the internet that the Orioles should trade Mancini for Hosmer, CJ Abrams, and Luis Patino. Crazy trade. Take on the 6 years/~$100M of Hosmer's contract with him at replacement level recently for two Top 50 prospects.
Will never happen of course, but it's a fun idea. Prospect value wise, it works out better for San Diego honestly but I doubt either team would be interested.
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12 hours ago, weams said:
Yes. The Orioles will not spend money. They won;t sign any of his clients. He is a non factor. There will be a payroll reduction.
You're probably right, but he's not blocking anyone and they aren't hurting for money.
Their payroll has gone from about:
2017 - $163.5M
2018 - $143M
2019 - $72M
According to my mental math, the 2020 payroll will be about $64M if Villar, Givens, and Mancini are all on the team (Davis at 17M). In the low 50s if they're all traded. About the lowest in the league.
I assume Villar is traded before OD so Richie Martin, Rylan Bannon, Mason McCoy are left. None of them are beating down the door as serious prospects at SS. Is it really so unreasonable for them to offer a guy like Iglesias $4M just to have the team win a few more games next year? I get that the difference between 60 and 65 wins is irrelevant to the franchise's long term plans, but it's relevant to the fans who watch the games.
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Outstanding!! One of the best outfield catches I've seen in a long time. Good for Stevie.
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3 hours ago, Frobby said:
My point is simply that with fewer minor league teams, clubs would be making decisions more quickly about who to keep and who to let go. So you might miss some slow developers. You might not hold on to guys who stalled at AA/AAA for 2-3 years.
If guys like Yaz or Means got cut in this scenario, they wouldn't necessarily retire. Fewer minor league clubs would lead to a rise in overseas and independent baseball. Maybe the Long Island Ducks' league becomes bigger and more legit. The Mexican league would rise in quality. Maybe some leagues pop up in South America.
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Good points Drungo! I like the idea of working backwards from the desired outcomes of a system.
Goal 1: Service time should no longer be a deciding factor in free agency or player promotion. I think automatic free agency after the age 27 season would be good (or after age 23 if they've never made it to the majors), with a better compensation system worked out between the team that signs and the team that loses the guy in free agency. Maybe a % of the contract value?
Goal 2: Significantly reduce the bloated, inefficient system. Limit minor league affiliates to 2 full season teams, 1 short season team, and whatever overseas academies they want. Pay the minor leaguers better. Cut the draft in half (20 rounds).
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Villar's going to get like $7M or so in arbitration. If you think he's a 3 WAR player (which there's a good case for), then that's a lot of value and not a lot of risk for a winning team who needs a middle infielder.
I bet Elias could trade him for a 45 grade prospect this winter. Would you trade him for a player like Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna, or Dean Kremer?
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Three scenarios for the final 15:
1. The Orioles collapse and overtake Detroit for the 1st pick.2. The Orioles keep plodding along and end up with the 2nd pick.
3. The Orioles catch fire and end up passing the Marlins for the 3rd pick.
Which would you choose? I would easily choose the 3rd one.
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6 minutes ago, atomic said:
The team didn't spend much on international players. The team didn't sign anyone that helped the team from free agency. We had Alberto and Severino help us from waiver claims.
Armstrong and Ruiz were good waiver claims, too. ML capable players at least.
I agree, he hasn't done much to help the ML team. But I like that he's cleaning house with minor league development, and you have to respect the time investment it takes to get the international groundwork done. Hopefully bringing those areas into the 21st century.
I would like to see a more competitive team take the field next year. No more Richie Martin, Chris Davis, and Wilkerson in the starting lineup. The payroll looks to be at around $63M next year if Villar gets tendered a contract. That's so low - no reason they can't make a minor investment in some ML talent that isn't blocking anyone (and could be traded). Jose Iglesias and a back of the rotation SP would do wonders.
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Two interesting articles came out this week:
Do We Even Need Minor League Baseball? - the title is a bit sensationalized but has a good critique of how the Minor League system overall works. Good examples of how players improve nowadays. Walker Buehler's quotes were interesting.
Maybe You Just Like Watching Baseball Games - is a funny response. Brings up some good points about attendance, game enjoyment, development, etc.
What's your take on the issue? Any sweeping changes you would make?
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3 hours ago, wildcard said:
Wilkerson has a 772 OPS vs righties. I think he stays. Could be as a utility player for the O's or he could be optioned. He has two options left.
I didn't realize he had that split, but he's still a below average hitter against righties (92 wRC+ career, 97 this year) and he doesn't really provide any defensive value or baserunning value.
I'm fine with him playing wherever in Norfolk next year like Jace Peterson, but no need for him to be on the 40 man. I'd be stunned if he was claimed.
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17 minutes ago, ScGO's said:
I think Stevie stays as super utility. There will be a lot of fodder cut from the roster for sure, but we could also free up spaces if we trade Givens, Villar, Mancini, etc. There should be room for McKenna. Id rather keep McKenna on the 40 man over Wynns, Mullins, and Ortiz
I like Wilkerson, but he's really bad. 248th out of 257 hitters with 300+PA in wRC+ this year. He's 27 and it's not like he's unlucky with balls in play. That's just his talent level.
Unlike a good utility player, he's not a positive defender anywhere like Flaherty, David Lough, Andino, etc. He's just passable everywhere. That's not a valuable trait unless you have no one else who can play a certain position (See: 2019 O's, CF)
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Trumbo, Wilkerson, Williams, Rogers, Tayler Scott, Brooks, Eades, Ortiz, Hess, Shepherd, and Blach will not be on the 40 man next spring I'm guessing. Lot of spots for waiver claims, borderline protectables, etc.
Ynoa, Smith Jr., and Davis aren't ML-caliber players but could stick around till spring at least.
I think Wojo and Armstrong might have earned spots for the time being.
USAToday: Boras Quotes
in Orioles Talk
Posted
What benefit does the team get from losing 58 games rather than 62? Rebuilding and tanking are two different things.
Trading veterans for prospects is rebuilding. I support that.
Non-tendering good ML players so that you lose more games is tanking and I don't support that. It's disrespectful to the game and the fans in my opinion.