[The Elias era so far]

I've never agreed being slow about promoting/keeping guys down that are already on the 40 man. You are burning option years w/o knowing how much work they need to do to adjust to the majors. You end up putting yourself in a out of options crapshoot a few years down the line with talented, but unfinished players.

We know why they do it, but in a pure trying to build the best team I don't find it optimal in any way. It's a business thing, not building a better team thing. 

backlogging non 40 man players into the rule 5 pool will happen regardless in a re-build. Though slow playing doesn't really help either. (It can disguise players and keep them from being picked if they are still in A ball)

[Definite Interest in Adeiny Hechavarria]

Not in a position to get someone who can field SS that can hit. Not like we are spending $$$ to get a Didi or anything. Might as well sell out for the glove and help out this teams developing pitchers.

[Maikel Franco]

Of course he's bad. Half the point of this whole thing is taking chances on struggling talents. Love his raw power/feel for contact combo. He's just been terrible at quality on contact. Will always be a free swinger, but there is some swing change gamble here for high offensive returns.

 

Are those odds low? Sure, but upside the game here.  Not mean projections. Would prefer Hernandez, but he's going cost more/higher demand.

[O's sign INF Dilson Herrera to MiL deal]

Man, this name is a blast from the past. Remember thinking this guy was going be very promising for the Mets. Dominating AA as a 20 year old with good metrics. Only to be a Quad A player for the next 5 years. .203/.293/.394 triple slash in 266 PAs.

Shallow low rez valuation made me feel he was one those guys who masked the serious flaws as a hitter with a selective approach against MILB pitching.

Nothing wrong with taking a gamble on mutli-position fielder with some pop.

[Do you like the Bundy trade?]

It's whatever.

Was like the Orioles get a handful of extra mid-round draft picks and using them for college arms. Bundy didn't have a ton of trade value. When you know your not getting quality no matter what and you trust your method of developing pitchers. It's one of those times a quantity approach works.

[If you are going to move Villar to save money you might as well release Davis]

4 hours ago, 7Mo said:

I feel terrible for them.

I don''t care about the big teams money being taken. Its the cause/effect of MLB teams apathy towards fielding competitive teams in lieu of making profit margins. NBA can get away with tanking teams as they are very good at selling starpower. Drawing national appeal.

The backbone of baseball is local interest for each team. It's a not a star driven league. Right now,? Baseball is still making more money as a whole. Competitive balance is trending the wrong direction each year though.  Most people think baseball will just decline gradually, but i'm worried about a collapse due to a lot of unsustainable factors that are propping it up financially.  Like a small percentage kinda thing, all be it.

[If you are going to move Villar to save money you might as well release Davis]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Fans and websites are already giving the Orioles grief for tanking, but what are you gonna do - the tanking system works. And we should absolutely be taking advantage of it. Why wouldn't we in this division? 

Baseball is set up this way, I don't think you can blame teams for tanking at all. It's (part of) a proven method for small-to-mid market winning. Sucks! But I'm glad Elias gets that. The hell with the critics. I will see those same critics in 5 years when they're all praising our smart/well-run organization and farm system. Just like they did with the Rays, just like they did with the Astros.  

The big market teams can sure blame them. They are footing the bill to cover the teams operating cost while you don't attract any fans to the stands.

[If you are going to move Villar to save money you might as well release Davis]

Chris Davis is not only taking up a roster spot. He's taking up the easiest one to find a replacement for (hitters).  If we had to some massively over-paid and old SS. That wouldn't be as much of an issue. You're not likely to see a ton of those pass waivers besides light hitting glove first types.

You do often see decent hitters with no/limited defensive profile pass thru waivers. Guys that do have some chance of bouncing back/hitting well.

[Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas]

4 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

So Phillies cut a 3 war 2b and we got a young lower upside lefty for a 4 war 2b?

Market was quiet.

I am floored that it was Miami that went for villar.

rWAR?  fWAR he was 1.7

 

10 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Goes by league first so they’d be 16th or 17th.

Awarding Waiver Claims

PROCEDURE FOR AWARDING OF WAIVER CLAIMS (TYPE OF WAIVERS):

If a player is claimed by only one club, that club is awarded the claim. If more than one club makes a claim, the club with the lowest winning percentage (regardless of league) either from the previous season (beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season through the 30th day of the MLB regular season) or on the day the player clears waivers (beginning on the 31st day of the MLB regular season through the last day of the MLB regular season) is awarded the claim. If two clubs with the same winning percentage make a claim, the club in the player's own league is awarded the claim. If two clubs from the same league make a claim and they are tied in the standings, the club with the lowest winning percentage from the previous season is awarded the claim. If the clubs are still tied, standings from two years back (or three years back, four years back, etc) are used to break the tie.

PROCEDURE FOR AWARDING OF WAIVER CLAIMS (TIME OF THE YEAR):

1. During the off-season and up through the first 30 days of he MLB regular season, the previous season's MLB standings are used to determine waiver claim priority. 

2. Beginning on the 31st day of the MLB regular season through the conclusion of the MLB regular season, the MLB standings as of the date the player clears waivers are used to determine waiver claim priority, with the previous season's MLB standings only used to break ties.

[Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Could the O's be sending some money with him? 

Maybe the Marlins think they can get him for less than 10M?

We'll see what he ends up making.

Even if they do pay a little. This is a re-building team with a tight budget. You wouldn't see this unless they think are getting a discount on his value.

We need more information though on this before any conclusion though

[Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas]

So the league did speak and agreed he was worth 10M?  Marlins would have been really high on WW priority(if they claimed) and are not in a win it now mode.

[Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

No way the Marlins pay 10M right?

Do we know if they claimed?

"We will give you some talent if we don't have to pay in full, or we will just pay in full w/o talent,. Your call Elias"

[Calling Elias incompetent is unfair]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

He's not worth 3.5 WAR at $10 million? I disagree

To the Orioles? No. They are not trying to win. They want trade assets and rental hitters have poor ROI for that.

For the league? He has yet to sign a deal with another team to see if he gets a 2 year deal for more total/less AAS. So no comment on that. However, the market is absolutely repressed right now

[Calling Elias incompetent is unfair]

17 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Then why was no one else interested in him, Tony? Is all of MLB wrong? All those people who are paid to evaluate and assess talent for a living?

This has less to do with talent valuation and more the state of the FA Market. Less teams spending + same FAs= Devaluation of FAs. 

Elias is absolutely not incompetent in this from an X's and O's standpoint. Rental hitters have poor market value right now.. What you can get for Villar, is not worth 10M. You are better off throwing a ton of cheap bones at struggling pitchers. Hoping a few float and become tradeable assets at the deadline.

[I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)]

WAR is not linear in the sense that a 2 WAR player worth more than 2x a 1 WAR player. 

That is just how scarcity works within basic economics. No one is paying 8M for a 1 WAR player. Why do that when there is a lot of them out there and your odds of finding something comparable for cheaper is pretty good?

There is also a major question mark about pitching WAR, more so then hitting WAR. Or even that the properly account for hitting value tin comparison to pitching value.

[I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)]

On 11/27/2019 at 7:56 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Theoretically some of the money saved would go to improving the farm.  Players, scouts, instructors, facilities.

They are receiving revenue sharing. It's 48% of the local revenue from each team in fact. Which there is some obligation to spend that money on players and feign competitiveness. Since MLB teams money is very much a collective pool. Without any obligation for teams to keep their books open. Which is a very bad combination

Yes, this has become a problem with a lot of teams cutting back salary and tanking for years. This case is so obvious. The Orioles cutting their best player and lowering their payroll below 50M. This will be likely a primary example used in arguments over CBA negotiations. Something that the big market teams and players are going to be united on when the CBA ends.

Teams are just getting tighter and tighter in part because there is so much uncertainty about the future of baseballs financials.