Jammer7

They do have some things to answer for. I do not think Hyde is in trouble, but the hitters have regressed with swing decisions in an effort to be more aggressive. The power numbers are up, on base is down. Strikeouts are skyrocketing. Perhaps that is on each player, or perhaps their philosophy is flawed. To me, the real question is, is it the coaches, or is this aggression coming from Sig, Mike and Eve?

I get all of that, sure. But they need pen guys on the active roster who have options so they can send them down and bring others up. No? Unless you want to DFA people. I am not sure that both Webb and Coulombe will be back.

You always need shuttle guys. Ideally, I would think they’d like to have 2-3 spots they can interchange between 5-6 guys. That allows them to maybe get some younger arms in there, like McDermott and the others we mentioned already. Bautista, if he is back to his old form, Seranthony, Cano, Soto (who I think may just surprise some people), while Cionel and Akin are not sure things. Either could be moved. They should make some moves there, IMO. Cionel has not really improved as much as I had hoped. Akin has had a very good year. Are they ARB eligible this year?

I gotcha. It depends if they think Pham and Van Loon impactfully can help them in 2025. There is such a gap between AAA and the majors, I don’t know for sure what they’ll do. Just a guess, but I think they’ll look for a little more experience. What they do with McDermott is another thing to watch. He should be in the pen in 2025, IMO. Upgrading the pen flexibility is a real need, maybe they think those two can help there. Maybe an Armbruster as well.

When you are in a championship window, roster spots are extremely important. You need room to wiggle, but also usable players for the major league roster in that year. They could add another, but I don’t think Pham or Van Loon would be lost. If they are, they’re easily replaced. We need shuttle arms, with many of our current group out of options. I wonder if they actually even take a rule 5 pick this year.

I think Young will be added, and that is it. I like Pham, but no AAA experience makes him unlikely to be taken. Whatever open spots should be used to upgrade the bullpen and other pitching depth. It is well documented here that we don’t have much beyond raw guys like Strowd and Heid. we lack flexibility and options. This has to change.

Reference Jordan Westburg, @LookitsPuck posted this earlier in this thread. He literally has one of the highest k rates of any first rounder in the last decade, which is what I said. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Trying to twist things again?

Then there is this from MLBpipeline’s write up in 2022. Standing 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, Mayo uses a clean swing path and freakish raw strength to flat-out crush the ball. He already makes louder contact than almost any other player in the Orioles system, consistently ranking near the top of their exit velocity readings during 2020 instructional camp, where he showed significant bat speed and light-tower power in batting practice and simulated games. The concerns crop up regarding whether he’ll hit enough to get to that power on a consistent basis. There’s enough swing and miss to his game to potentially drown out Mayo’s loud tools when exposed to professional pitching. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2021/orioles/ Honeycutt has the most concerns. Sure. But the fellas I named had some issues with swing and miss as well. Perhaps it wasn’t thought of the same in all circles. Guys with big power generally have some swing and miss. It is not a mystery.

It says in there scouts thought he’d be a fringe average hitter due to contact concerns. And that was against much weaker competition. Good stuff.

Respectfully, Westburg had one of the highest swing and miss rates of any first round pick in the past decade. Mayo had considerable swing and miss concerns as well as a raw HS kid. Kyle Stowers had considerable swing and miss, still does…lol. IMO, their reputation is more about their ability to turn out good hitters, overall. I think they have produced more quality hitters than any other organization in the past 4-5 years. Some will miss in every organization. Not every guy is going to be able to make the adjustments they need to make. Fabian is a glaring example, along with the others you pointed out. The criticism is fair, but so are the accolades. The list of accomplished hitters is long. Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, Holliday, Bradfield, maybe Hernaiz, and so on. They also have helped guys like Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle, Urias and O’Hearn get the most out of their ability. Some will say it was about their higher picks. However, a lot of high picks do not make it, so it isn’t like a guarantee that any of them would have made it in another situation. The previous Orioles development group would not have had this success, IMO. I will say some of those hitters they have tutored would have been very good in many environments. However, you cannot just subtract them from the equation. I think their rep is fair.

Ok. I never said highest ceiling, which he may have. Most talented, most tools. For the Orioles, and what they do best, he was the BPA. It’s a good match. This is what I said in the full context. Debate is good. You and I actually do not disagree on the players we liked this draft, though I thought Honeycutt would be gone by 1-22. I actually did not like the O’Farrell pick, at first. I thought that was just a bit of a reach, but they really like him. The Anderson pick was another one where I scratched my head. I did like the Overn pick a lot. They went college up the middle guys with the top four picks. Philosophically, I get it. They like their data gathered during the college years. I also get the critics of it. Mike Elias and his staff have great conviction with what they believe. That is admirable to me, even if we think it’s wacky. Too many people think one way, and then act another out of fear of criticism. The criticism is fair. I have said my share this year.

I said everyone I read or heard. So, that would eliminate Law. I never said a slam dunk. Let’s not get it twisted, which is what you like to do. A very talented guy with a big issue of swing and miss, absolutely. Maybe even a 35 hit tool, as is. It’s extremely risky. The other four tools are between 60-70. He was, by definition, the BPA, which is what I said. Is he the most likely to make it to the majors and have an impact? No, I don’t think so at all. The question is, what is causing the swing and miss. I am sure that they did their homework on him and saw what they think they can fix, at least to a point. It’s a risky pick. But if they didn’t take him, someone would have soon after. A few years from now, if he figures it out, we’d be hearing how the Orioles passed on a great player. I liked the HS players too. I am a sucker for HS SS and up the middle guys. I wanted Gillen and Lindsey too. Honeycutt was one I thought they might like, and he can develop in a system known for improving hitters with his issues. VH may not have been the best pick when all is said and done, but he was the most toolsy guy available. I am not defending Elias’ picks here. I see their logic, and I certainly don’t know what they know. But I am definitely not going to take a crap on a pick that has 20 at bats, especially after not playing for two months.

Well, I don’t read Law, as I will not pay for woke Athletic. So, everyone but Law. Yawn.

I think you are correct. It seems clear that they can pick up cheaper arm talent in the international market of DR and Venezuela. The Astros did it, and I think this is where they are going to get the most value on a consistent basis. That is not to say they may not take a chance on higher round talent in the years to come. I think they want to deal from a position of relative strength. Once the international talent begins to really develop, I can see them cherry-picking a higher round arm here and there. They will be able to afford an occasional gamble like that as things get diversified. We all want a much more well-rounded system. However, from a value-based investment perspective, can we really find fault with what they have done with their draft capital, philosophically anyway? They can certainly execute better as Tony has said. There will be misses either way. But basing their evaluations on guys that have two or three additional years of data and maturity seems to mitigate a lot of risk. Van Honeycutt!!!

You make a fair point. I’m not saying you’re wrong at all. They just think it is too risky of an investment. With Honeycutt, they see a guy who can do so many things that he doesn’t need to be an .800 OPS guy to have great value. Mullins hasn’t really hit well since 2022, but he is still a valuable asset. On the positive side. This regime aided greatly in the development of Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Rodriguez did not have the command issues of DL Hall. Hall still struggles with command, sadly. They did help Bautista become “The Mountain.” The Orioles look for traits that are undervalued and try to develop them. I’m not sure that philosophy is the way to go. I equate it trying to get Ferrari performance from a Hyundai chassis, but that is the whole analytical approach like Driveline and Tread. It’s a value-based approach. What value does a pitcher have if they have TJ and miss two seasons? But we need pitchers, good ones. So, spend less on unproven assets, spend more on things that have a higher likelihood of developing in your system. Then trade from your depth. (Eflin was a good trade, Rodger’s…ugh) I don’t know which approach is better. But this is their path. They stick to it. They are all in with what they believe in.