calsmanystances

Fangraphs mock has us passing on Watson, Lawlar, Jobe and Rocker to take Cowser. Davis went 4th to Boston and Leiter went 2nd to Texas. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/ 5. Baltimore Orioles Pick: Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State The Orioles would love to see something strange happen ahead of them in order to access one of Leiter or Davis, and they’ll jump on the opportunity if it presents itself. Barring that, they’ll likely cut a deal on one of the college outfielders, with Colton Cowser and Sal Frelick being the most frequently mentioned names. Cowser feels like the pick here, as some models (and the Orioles lean heavily on models) have him behind only Davis in terms of offensive potential among the college bats. If House is on the board here then he might be the value pick Baltimore is hoping for. Watson’s name was mentioned with this club earlier in the process, too. 6. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX) The Diamondbacks get to take their pick of two of the high school shortstops (Watson, Lawlar) in this scenario, which felt like a pipe dream about a month ago. They’d likely discuss Rocker here, but our sources believe they’d prioritize the prep shortstops and would choose between Lawlar and Watson. Once seen as a potential No. 1 pick, Lawlar’s age and some minor swing-and-miss tendencies have him slipping a bit, but this is still great value at six. Cowser also feels like a player this team would be on. Remember to stash away Noah Miller’s name for a later round here. 7. Kansas City Royals Pick: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt At some point a team will see Rocker, who still pitched pretty well with suppressed stuff in 2021, as too good a value to pass on. They’ll see the player he was more recently (low-90s, living off of pitch execution, fourth starter look) as his floor, with the upside that he returns to (and sustains) peak form as better than their other options. If Rocker goes ahead of this, then House, Jobe and Watson are the names attached to this pick. We’re not sure how the club views Lawlar since he hasn’t been expected to fall to them at all, but in this scenario he’s just a different D-backs pick (either Rocker or Watson) from being available here. 8. Colorado Rockies Pick: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) Last mock, we said Colorado would be hoping for one of the high school hitters to fall here and in this scenario, Watson does. It sounds like Cowser would also be in the mix here if he lasts this long. This is supposedly where Pennsylvania prepster Benny Montgomery’s market begins, but he’s more consistently mentioned in the middle of the round. 9. Los Angeles Angels Pick: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) The Angels rumors have been all over the board but they’re in a spot where one of the nine players mocked so far will fall to them and be considered good value. This is probably the ceiling for Texas right-hander Ty Madden, and there is a late rumor of them starting to kick the tires on two-way prep star Bubba Chandler, who is seen by most as more of second-half of the first round talent. Jobe, who might go as high as three, has some of the best raw stuff in the draft and has impressed this spring with his ability to harness it within the zone.

To give a little more color on Law's first mock, he has Pittsburgh taking Davis 1-1 (the ACC Tournament started on Tuesday and Davis went 2-5 with 2 HR's in a win against Clemson, and 3-7 with a HR in yesterday's loss to Georgia Tech). Here's what he wrote on Leiter being selected by Arizona, one pick after us: 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt They’d love Lawlar, and I would say there’s a non-zero chance he gets here; if Texas takes Rocker or Leiter and Boston takes the other, that probably pushes Lawlar here, with Baltimore likely going under slot.

New mock from Mayo. I really love Mayer and Davis. Would Elias even take Leiter? https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-2021-may-19?t=mlb-draft-coverage 1. Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) The Pirates seem to have seven players still in the mix here and Mayer, who scouts have extreme confidence will hit, is right in the middle of that conversation. 2. Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas) The Mayer vs. Lawlar debate is one that could continue for years and the Rangers can take their pick of the one the Pirates don’t take if they so choose (and if they don’t like the college options still on the board). 3. Tigers: Henry Davis, C, Louisville He’s separated himself as by far the best college bat in the class, the chance to stick behind the plate doesn’t hurt, and he's also in that mix for the Pirates at the very top. 4. Red Sox: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) He might be able to stick at shortstop and even if he can’t, adjustments he’s made at the plate have allowed him to show off his immense raw power more consistently. 5. Orioles: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt Some were concerned after he was scratched from a May 8 start, but he came back strong with 13 strikeouts against Ole Miss, meaning there’s a very good chance the O’s won’t have the opportunity to take him. 6. D-backs: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt The D-backs likely didn’t think they’d have the chance to get either Vandy pitcher here, and Rocker’s name is all over the top five, but it would be hard to pass up on his arm strength here.

Gammons wrote a long article about the effects of COVID and the lost year on the minors and the draft. Here's a blurb from the draft portion of the article: Begin with the draft, quasi-restored from five rounds to 20 and moved from the first week of June to the All-Star break in mid-July. It has seemed for weeks that the top of the draft was simple. Vanderbilt pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker and high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer were going to be atop the board, with little variance, save perhaps pool money manipulation. “All along, we’ve been saying this draft is very weak on college position players,” said one general manager whose team has a high first-round pick. “But … we’re watching the college players playing regularly and everything seems very different. We don’t have to start the final decision processes until the first of July. Look at (Louisville catcher) Henry Davis. The way he’s come, with his power, athleticism and arm, by the time Louisville is done its season, played the ACC tournament and moved on through the regionals, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could be the first pick in the draft. “All of a sudden, we’re appreciating that Davis didn’t have a full 2020 season, he didn’t play in the Cape or on Team USA, this season had an uneasy start because of COVID-19 and, in a lot of regions, horrible early spring weather,” the GM continued. https://theathletic.com/2565240/2021/05/06/gammons-the-minors-return-but-scouts-will-discover-a-drastically-altered-landscape/

I forgot to include the O's pick! 5. Orioles: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) House has bounced back after struggling on the showcase circuit last summer and offers some of the best power in the Draft and possibly enough athleticism to stay at shortstop.

Louisville beat Vanderbilt on Tuesday. Henry Davis went 2-4 with a HR. He's now hitting .403/.520/.683 with 10 HR, 9 2B, 38 RBI, 29 walks and 15 strikeouts. He's also stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts. Callis just did an updated mock draft. Here's the top 6: 1. Pirates: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas) As a five-tool high school shortstop from the Dallas area, Lawlar draws comparisons to Bobby Witt Jr. (No. 2 to the Royals in 2019), who had louder tools but a less polished bat at the same stage of their careers. 2. Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt After taking college baseball by storm with a no-hitter in his first Southeastern Conference start and seven no-hit innings in his second, Leiter has surrendered eight homers in the last three weeks as scouts wonder how he'll hold up under by far the biggest workload he's ever had. 3. Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) He might be relatively anonymous compared to the other top-tier talents, but Mayer has the upside of a Corey Seager bat with a Brandon Crawford glove. 4. Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt Rocker's velocity dipped into the low 90s for three weeks early in the season but the Draft's most physical pitcher has performed consistently well and outperformed Leiter. 6. D-backs: Henry Davis, C, Louisville In a down year for college bats, Davis is perhaps the only preseason projected first-rounder in that group to exceed expectations, batting .403/.520/.683 with more walks (29) and extra-base hits (19) than strikeouts (15) while continuing to display plus-plus arm strength. https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021-may-5?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Henry Davis and Louisville played Clemson Fri-Saturday. Davis went 5-12 with 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB and 1 K in the series. On the season, in 37 games (135 AB), he's hitting .400 with 9 HR, 9 2B, 29 Walks, 15 K's. He's also stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts. He has a .520 OBP and a.667 Slg% (1.187 OPS). Defensively, he's caught 12 of 25 runners attempting to steal. Vanderbilt played Florida this past weekend. Florida won 2 out of 3. Kumar Rocker Rocker got the start on Friday night and got the win. Rocker went 5 innings, 4 hits 2 ER, 4 walks, 8 K's and threw 95 pitches. On the season, Rocker is 10-1 with a 1.70 ERA. 69 innings, 36 hits, 19 walks (2.48/9), 97 K's (12.65/9) and a .149 average against. Jack Leiter Leiter got the start on Saturday and took the loss. Leiter went 4 innings, 5 hits 5 ER, 4 walks, 4 K's and threw 93 pitches. On the season, Leiter is 7-2 with a 2.10 ERA. 64.1 innings, 28 hits, 29 walks (4.06/9), 106 K's (14.83/9) and a .128 average against. About 4 days ago, CBS released their Top 10: 1. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt Preseason: No. 1 With a little over two months to go, Leiter is positioned to lead the class from flag to flag. Yes sir, his fastball can boogie, especially up in the zone thanks to his ability to impart spin and create a flat plane. Scouts would like to see more consistency from his secondaries, including both of his breaking balls, but he's a good athlete and a hard worker who should be able to make the necessary refinements. Some teams with high picks aren't even discussing Leiter as a contingency option, suggesting the industry believes he'll go No. 1 barring an injury or a Bob Nutting-forced cheap out. 2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit HS (TX) Preseason: No. 2 If Leiter doesn't go first overall, then Lawlar would be the logical alternative. He's drawn comparisons to Royals prospect Bobby Witt Jr. because of his advanced age (he'll celebrate his 19th birthday before the draft), his Texas residency, and his skill set. His biggest fans within the industry believe he'll stick at shortstop for the long haul and have above-average grades for every tool at maturation, making him a potential all-star. Teams expect he'll require a larger signing bonus to forgo his commitment to Vanderbilt than the $5.2 million received by last year's No. 2 pick Heston Kjerstad. 3. Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS (CA) Preseason: No. 5 Mayer doesn't receive as much attention as Lawlar does, but he's another high-end prep shortstop. Unlike Lawlar, there's no question that Mayer is going to remain at the six. He has all the proper weaponry, including a strong and accurate arm and light feet. Mayer's offensive future presents more volatility. There are those in the game who believe he'll grow into 15-to-20-homer power from the left side. Should that come to fruition, he's going to make whichever team lands him a happy one. 4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt Preseason: No. 4 Rocker remains the most famous player in this class, which in turn has led to some overexposure that borders on fatigue. He's had a tremendous collegiate career and his slider is one of the best chase pitches in the class, yet teams have reservations about his fastball's results (improved this season), his mechanics, and his durability. He recently went through a stretch where his velocity was down about two ticks from normal, according to data obtained by CBS Sports. Rocker's velocity has since rebounded, but that fluctuation isn't going to help his case with those who doubt him. He's hanging steady at No. 4, even though it's possible he slips a little further come draft day. 5. Henry Davis, C, Louisville Preseason: No. 8 To quote a snippet from our preseason rankings: "Don't sleep on Davis as a dark horse to go in the top five." Now he's in the top five, having further established himself as a good prospect by flirting with a .400 average and a 2-to-1 walk-to-strikeout rate so far this season. Davis seldom whiffs, he hits the ball hard, and he's going to remain behind the plate (with a strong arm to boot). There were scouts who were concerned that his swing was too strength-based to work against top-notch velocity. Maybe that proves to be the case, but some team is going to jump at the opportunity to find out. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/top-10-mlb-draft-prospects-2021-jack-leiter-still-no-1-vanderbilt-teammate-kumar-rocker-in-top-five/

Vanderbilt played Miss. State this weekend. Louisville's games were canceled due COVID, so no games for Henry Davis. Kumar Rocker Rocker got the start on Friday night and got the win while pitching a complete game. Rocker went 9 innings, 3 hits 1 ER, 0 walks, 8 K's, 1 HBP and threw 109 pitches. On the season, Rocker is 9-1 with a 1.55 ERA. 64 innings, 32 hits, 15 walks (2.11/9), 89 K's (12.52/9) and a .143 average against. Jack Leiter Leiter got the start on Saturday and took the loss. Leiter went 5 innings, 6 hits 4 ER, 3 walks, 8 K's, 1 HBP and threw 96 pitches. On the season, Leiter is 7-1 with a 1.49 ERA. 60.1 innings, 23 hits, 25 walks (3.73/9), 102 K's (15.22/9) and a .115 average against.

The bolded language is the key for me.

MLB.Com mock from Callis and Mayo. Doesn't seem like House has a real chance to stay at SS, but scouts love his power. 1) Pirates (Callis): Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt -- It feels like a four-man race to go No. 1 right now, but give me the guy who’s dominating the Southeastern Conference and can pitch off his fastball like few can. 2) Rangers (Mayo): Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Texas) -- Callis taking Leiter made this easier as I feel Lawlar’s the next best player in the class right now as a five-tool player at a premium position. 3) Tigers (Callis): Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) -- I almost went back-to-back Vanderbilt pitchers, but Mayer’s sweet left-handed swing and smooth shortstop play were too much to pass up. 4) Red Sox (Mayo): Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt -- No way I was going to let Rocker go further than this, not with that ridiculous fastball-slider combination that comes from his intimidating 6-foot-5 frame. 5) Orioles (Callis): Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) -- He has big-time power and arm strength and could be a more athletic/higher contact version of Joey Gallo. 6) D-backs (Mayo): Henry Davis, C, Louisville -- He’s risen to the top of the college bat crop by hitting over .400 with power this spring, combining that with a plus arm behind the plate lands him firmly in top 10 talk. https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-podcast-makes-top-20-draft-picks?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker, ranked third on Keith Law’s top-50 draft prospects, had a solid outing on Friday night against Tennessee. He went seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits and one walk and striking out eight. His velocity was up over his previous few starts, touching 96 mph and sitting 93-95, according to multiple reports. There had been some concern about his health with his fastball sitting more 89-91 in his previous few outings. https://theathletic.com/2529621/2021/04/20/2021-mlb-draft-heat-watch-nc-states-luca-tresh-texas-techs-cal-conley-emerging/ Henry Davis is definitely a guy we need to watch. Dominant on-base catcher who has power and is a solid receiver with a plus arm. Davis is hitting .403, 8 HR, 7 2B, 34 RBI, 28 BB 12 K's in 33 games. He has a .529 OBP and .664 Slg% (1.193 OPS). In last year's Covid limited season (14 games), he had a .481 OBP and .698 Slg% (1.179 OPS). Let's not go through Buster Posey #2 (passed on Posey because we took Wieters the year before). Take the best player available at #5 and it'll work itself out. Maybe Rutschman isn't as good as he is "supposed" to be? Maybe Rutschman is as good as we hope and he starts 4-5 games a week and Davis starts two and each plays 1B or DH the other games. Maybe we trade one. Who knows? But it's a good problem to have. Here's a portion of what our good friend, Keith Law had to say: Davis has an elite approach at the plate, an ideal combination of selectivity, pitch recognition, and hand acceleration, so that he just doesn’t swing and miss. I saw one swing-and-miss in 10 plate appearances over two games, and his whiff rate this season is only around 6 percent, while he reached base safely in eight of those trips to the plate via five hits and three walks. His swing is beautiful, with the aforementioned quick hands and great hip rotation to allow him to drive the ball, and he showed no problem catching up to 96-97 against UVA. Behind the plate, he receives well but needs some work with blocking, while the Cavaliers never even tested his plus arm. Two days of watching Davis gave me strong Buster Posey vibes, and Posey, who went fifth overall in the 2008 draft, should have gone first. (He was No. 2 on my draft board that year, behind Tim Beckham, who was the first overall pick and the consensus top prospect. I had it wrong.) Posey hit with the old silly bats, but his .463/.566/.879 line as a junior — with a nearly 2:1 walk to strikeout ratio — would probably look a lot like Davis’ current line of .409/.533/.678, with a BB:K ratio over 2 if Posey used the modern composite bats the NCAA requires now. Even if you think Davis is Posey Lite, is that a more valuable player than a good No. 2 starter, which is Leiter’s projection? Would you prefer the certainty of a catcher who hits to the wider variance in outcomes for Rocker, who can show you No. 1 stuff and has a workhorse build, but lacks the command or consistency of a Leiter? Joey Bart was the No. 2 pick three years ago, with an inferior offensive profile and track record to Davis, striking out far more often. Maybe it’s time to reconsider the idea that the first pick has to be one of the Vandy boys, even if Pittsburgh is limiting its choices to college players. Davis is, at the very least, good enough to be in their decision set. https://theathletic.com/2527868/2021/04/19/law-is-louisvilles-henry-davis-the-best-prospect-in-this-years-mlb-draft/

28 of 29 first round picks have now been signed. Garrett Mitchell (20th overall to the Brewers) is the lone unsigned first-rounder. Of the 28 signed first-rounders, the largest underslot in terms of dollar amount are: 2. Heston Kjerstad: $2.59 million 23. Carson Tucker: $930,000 17. Nick Yorke: $910,000 8. Robert Hassell: $880,000 18. Bryce Jarvis: $830,000 25. Jared Shuster: $540,000 3. Max Meyer: $520,000 The largest underslot by percentage: 2. Heston Kjerstad: 33.25% 23. Carson Tucker: 31.74% 17. Nick Yorke: 25.20% 18. Bryce Jarvis: 23.85% 25. Jared Shuster: 19.71% 14. Justin Foscue: 19.55% 8. Robert Hassell: 16.99%

An admission by the team and the player (obviously his agent as well), that but for the O’s picking him 2nd overall, none believe he would have gone prior to 8th overall (slot bonus of $5.18 million).

In the shortened 2020 season, Arkansas, like everyone else in the conference, did not make it to the SEC schedule. Kjersatd put up his numbers in 16 games against: Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley Conference)-He went 7-12 with 4 HR 10 RBI, 2 walks and 1 k. Gonzaga (West Coast Conference)-He went 4-16 with 0 HR 1 RBI 3 walks and 4 k's. Oklahoma (Big 12)-In the 1 game played, he went 2-5 (2 singles) 0 RBI 0 walk and 1 K. Texas(Big 12)- In the 1 game played, he went 3-5 with 1 HR 2 RBI. Baylor (Big 12)-In the 1 game played, he 2-3 with a 2B 0 RBI no walks no K's. Illinois St.(Missouri Valley Conference)- In the 1 game played, he went 2-5, 1 RBI no walks no K's. South Alabama (Sunbelt Conference)-In their 3 game series, he went 5-13 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 walk 2 K's. Grand Canyon (Western Athletic Conference)--2 game series, he went 5-8 with 1 RBI 1 walk and 1 K. Kjerstad played 2 of his 16 games against ranked teams. OU finished the truncated season 13th. Texas was 22nd.

Oy. Westburg hit .294 last year (.279 in SEC games) with 6 HR. He struck out 69 times in 66 games (265 AB). In the brief 2020 season (16 games), he hit .317 with 2 HR and 15 Ks (66 AB). I don't know what to say other than this is not anything resembling an overslot. We took two high strikeout, swing and miss guys from the same conference as Martin, who didn't strike out and hit .424 with more walks than strikeouts. How many times have you asked yourself, "I wish our prospects didn't have the 'he strikes out too much and needs better control of the strike zone' label? Well, we added two guys that K a lot. Kjerstad had a 33% chase percentage. In college. How will that go when he faces pitchers throwing 5 MPH harder, with better breaking balls and command?

No one can argue with a straight face that Kjerstad was best player available. He hit .319 in the SEC last year. Martin hit .424. Kjerstad struck out 65 times and walked 21 last year. Martin walked more than he struck out. Kjerstad is a corner OF. Martin will play CF, 3b and/or 2b. Kjerstad was rated about 10th on most mocks and player rankings. Martin was 1 or 2. So, we have decided that getting the best player available at 30 is more important than finding the best player available at #2.

I've said it once before but I'll repeat it again. Martin crushed it in the SEC in the last full college baseball season (2019). No running up his numbers against inferior non-conference competition. He hit .424 with a .500 OBP in SEC games last year. JJ Bleday hit .304 in SEC games in 2019 (he hit .347 overall in 2019). Heston Kjerstad (who will be a first round pick next week and I've seen rumors connecting him to an underslot deal with the O's) hit .319 in SEC games in 2019. In the limited season they had in 2020 (they didn't even get to the SEC schedule), Martin hit .377 and had 10 walks and only 2 k's with a .507 OBP in 16 games. In terms of power, he hit 10 HRs as a sophomore (2019). You know how many Rustchman hit as a sophomore? 9. We don't know how many Martin would have hit as a Jr (he had 3 in 16 games which, if he had as many at bats as last year, would be 15 over a full season). Rutschman jumped from 9 to 17 as a junior. No, I am not saying he is Rustchman. I'm trying to provide some context for his power potential. The scouting reports I have read talk of Martin's elite exit velocity, swing, plate discipline and a tremendous will to do what it takes to win. For all the talk about his defense, he made the All SEC defensive team at 3B last year. The vote was not conducted among the fans or media. The leagues coaches did the voting. We are picking second for a reason. It's my opinion we can't pass on Martin to do an underslot deal in the hope that a top talent falls to 30 and we are able to sign him. From today's Detroit Free Press: The Detroit Tigers have the first pick in the MLB draft, and the two top players available are Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson and Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin. Torkelson is a great power hitter. By all accounts, he is driven and competitive, and I think the Tigers are going to pick him. In fact, there is a lot of logic in taking Torkelson — he’s the best power hitter in this draft and he fills an organizational need. But it is not an easy decision. In many ways, the Tigers are faced with a new-age dilemma: Should they take the home run hitter or a guy who can do everything well — make hard solid contact, get on base, get great jumps, take the extra base and have the versatility to contribute all over the field — all the things that add up to wins in the new analytics? Most mock drafts have the Tigers taking Torkelson. But Vanderbilt baseball coach Tim Corbin told me something about Martin that caught my attention. When Corbin was watching the recent ESPN documentary about Michael Jordan, he saw something that reminded him of Martin. “Not to compare Michael Jordan and Austin Martin because I'm not doing it,” Corbin said. And then, well, he pretty much compared them. Not their skills. But their mindset. “When you start looking at people like that, they're far and away unique,” Corbin said. “They're different. And the piece that stands out the most is, guys like Michael Jordan, guys like Austin Martin, they compete all the time. It doesn’t matter the scenario you can put Austin Martin in. If he’s at the batting cages, or the fields, he wants to kick your ass all the time, period. That's all he's doing and he's pushing others and he's relentless when he does it. That's who he is.” If Corbin were a young, inexperienced coach, I’d dismiss those statements quickly as somebody blowing smoke to promote his player. But Corbin has been through this drill dozens of times. He has had more than 70 players drafted since 2003, including 15 players taken in the first round. Two of his players have been taken first overall: David Price (2007) and Dansby Swanson (2015). Last year alone, Vanderbilt had a school-record 13 players drafted. So when Corbin starts using terms like “unique” and “different,” considering his long history with developing future professional players, it’s time to pay attention. “You start watching (Martin) and you start to say, ‘Wow, this kid is a little bit unique,’” Corbin said. “There's a difference to what he's doing. He's winning games for you. Because he's moving on the bases. He's on base. His cleats touch first base so many times, but when they get beyond first base, his cleats get the third because of his own abilities.” Martin is a disciplined hitter with the athleticism to play several positions. Baseball America ranked him as the No.1 hitter in this draft, the No. 5 defensive outfielder and the No. 5 athlete. https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/jeff-seidel/2020/06/05/detroit-tigers-mlb-draft-austin-martin-michael-jordan/3143729001/

I have read some stories, and seen reports, that perhaps we should go underslot at #2 and use the savings for the 30th overall pick and/or the 39th overall pick. To me, when you are picking 2nd overall (or anywhere in the top 5), you need to pick the very best player available. You cannot pass on elite talent. Certainly doing so in the hope that a top talent will fall to 30 and you will be able to go overlslot risks the loss of an elite talent for a possibility which is out of your control. This is also a draft that is supposed to be deep in pitching. I bring all of this up because it appears that the Tigers are going to with Tork, which means Austin Martin will be available at #2. I think most would agree that the SEC has been the best conference in recent years. I think most would agree that the SEC was the best conference in the last full season (2019). In SEC games in 2019, Martin hit .424. Some players run up huge stats prior to conference play and then their numbers take a hit when conference games start. Not Martin. He destroyed SEC pitching . To compare, JJ Bleday hit .304 in SEC games in 2019 (he hit .347 overall in 2019). Martin also walked more than he struck out and every scouting report I read talks of his elite exit velocity and control of the strike zone. Even though it appears he will not be an MLB shortstop, he is going to play CF, 3B or 2B. Nick Gonzales has been floated in some mocks as an underslot guy for us at #2. Perhaps he will be a solid big league player. However, he played at New Mexico State which is approximately 3,900 feet above sea level, nearly 3,000 feet higher than any non-Coors park in MLB. In addition, the competition he faced was so far below what Martin faced that it isn't even funny. I read one story that in 3 seasons he only faced two teams that were even ranked (Texas A&m and Texas Tech). Lacy looks like he has good stuff. Solid lefty with a consistent 92-94 MPH fastball that can hit 96 or so and a really good slider. He was great in his 4 starts before the 2020 season was shut down. However, aside from the risk of being a pitcher, he made 21 career starts at A&M, 15 of which came last year. He walked 4.36/9 in 2019. Maybe if he had a full 2020 to prove his control and command was elite I'd feel differently, but I think there is too much risk there to pick him over Martin. Let's not overthink it. Take Martin, add him to Rutschman, Mountcastle, Hays, DL Hall and G-Rod and continue the rebuild on the proper trajectory.

Arizona State's website and d1baseball list Tork at 6'1 205. Cal's website and d1baseball list Vaughn at 6'0 214. Here are the links: https://d1baseball.com/player/SMIcwFdg/spencer-torkelson/ https://thesundevils.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8386 https://d1baseball.com/player/lG5tPbWe/andrew-vaughn/ https://calbears.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=13662

Here are Torkleson's stats over the last two seasons: 2018: .320/.440/.743 25 HR 38 Walks 44 Strikeouts 2019: .353/.449/.702 22 HR 41 Walks 43 Strikeouts Here are Vaughn's stats over the same two season period: 2018: .402/.531/.819 23 HR 44 Walks 18 Strikeouts 2019: .374/.539/.704 15 HR 60 Walks 33 Strikeouts Vaughn hit for a higher average (.389 v. .338), walked more (about 25% more) and struck out less (about 58% of the frequency that Tork k'd). Torkelson, obviously, hit more homers (47 v. 38).

Austin Martin really stands out to me. In SEC games, he hit .424. Some players run up huge stats before conference play and then their numbers take a hit when conference games start. Not Martin. He destroyed SEC pitching and I think many would argue that the SEC was the best conference in the country in 2019. As a comparison, Bleday hit .304 in SEC games (.347 overall). Martin also improved as the year went along, especially from a power perspective. We'll see how he does at SS this year (he played 3rd in 2019), but in even if he doesn't project as an everyday MLB SS, his bat, speed (22 steals as a freshman and 18 as a sophomore), strike zone judgment (40 walks 36 K's and a.486 OBP) and ability to play 3B, 2B or CF (he played CF for Team USA) have me very interested.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/5/30/18645138/mlb-draft-andrew-vaughn-first-baseman-cal

Vaughn went 7-13 with 4 HR this weekend, including an opposite field grand slam. On the season, Vaughn is 18-34, .529/.680/.1.176 (1.856 OPS) with seven home runs, 18 RBI, 15 walks, a HBP and five strikeouts.

Thanks. I forgot to add that Vaughn did go to the Cape Cod League last summer before joining Team USA. He was really solid there with the wood bat. In 14 games, he hit .308 with 5 HR with a 1.022 OPS. One of his teammates was Bryson Stott, the SS from UNLV who will likely be a first round pick as well. In 12 games, Stott was .275 with a .708 OPS. Rutschman did not play in the Cape Cod League last year (if I recall it was due to his long season after winning the CWS), but he did in 2017. In 2017, in 20 games, he hit .164 with a .461 OPS. Admittedly these are small sample sizes and Rutschman has clearly grown as a player since 2017. It's just more food for thought on Vaughn and trying to put his numbers into perspective relative to his peers. If Rutschman continues to hit as he has at the start of this season, and as he did last year for OSU, who can complain if we draft him 1-1? My concerns with him are (i) how he struck out 40 times last year in 250 AB while Vaughn only struck out 18 times in the same conference, and (ii) he's a catcher and, to me, catchers are somewhat similar to RB's in that you know their prime is a short window of time and you likely don't want to sign them to a large contract when they get to free agency. By the time we are ready to win, how many years will we have left with Rutschman? The scouting reports that I have read on Vaughn are that his numbers are legit in that he is the best hitter in the draft, but I will leave it to guys like Luke who watch endless amounts of tape and know what they are talking about to weigh in on Vaughn's (and Rutschman's) hitting mechanics and swing plane. I just know that if someone told me we could draft Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt at 1-1, I'd say "sign me up."

Just wanted to point out what Andrew Vaughn, the 1B from Cal (the Pac-12, same conference as Rutschman) has accomplished and is currently doing. In 2017, as a freshman, Vaughn stats were: .349, .414 OBP and .555 SLG (.969 OPS.] Last year, Vaughn won the Golden Spikes award. His stats were insane. .402 average, .531 OBP and. 819 SLG (1.350 OPS). Oh, he also had 23 HR 44 Walks and 18 K's. That's right, he not only walked almost 2.5 times for each K, he also had more HR's than K's. This season, Vaughn is putting up even better numbers. In 11 games, he's 11-21 (.524), 3 HR, 9 RBI, 14 walks and 3 K's. .714 OBP and 1.000 SLG (1.714 OPS). His college numbers dwarf those of Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt. I understand that C has more value than 1B, but C also has a shorter life span. Vaughn deserves consideration at 1-1.