Babypowder

FTFY

Right, couple the data suggesting three true outcomes types physically decline early with actual data that suggests Davis has declined physically (See: range based defensive metrics, sprint speed) and you don't have to squint very hard to think it may actually be physical.

Right here.

I'm going to get way out on a limb here and suggest that .444 BABIP is not sustainable.

Yeah, Manny has been great so far this year. He’s on pace for an 8 win season, and I bet if he had an 8 win season people would still complain. If Mike Trout were an Oriole there would be a small contingent on this site that would talk about how overrated and flawed he was too.

He knew they wouldn’t come back. He also knew the Tigers wouldn’t stop scoring. He should have just stopped playing the second they were behind. Doing otherwise is just selfish.

That line has basically no information in it that allows me to make a good estimate of its value. Since I know we are talking about Chris Davis in 2017, he was worth -2.9 million last year according to Fangraphs.

You being the president of the Trey Mancini fan club, I’m not surprised. I though it was hit high enough that someone faster gets to it. Trey looked slow in pursuit, probably because he is slow.

I thought Mauer’s double to the base of the ball was catchable with a decent left fielder out there.

His problem is worse than Jones right now... and Jones offense was great as an above average defensive center fielder. It would not have been very good as a defensively challenged left fielder or first baseman.

You mean Fanagraphs. And all these silly analytics are ruining the game, these people working at fangraphs getting hired to work for MLB teams is just further evidence of its decay. These nerds have probably never even watched an entire baseball game, much less played in one. I work too damn hard to let you nerds talk to me like this! I am a regional manager in charge of 49 people! I drive a Dodge Stratus! or something like that.

I think those projections are in line with what I expect. However, there’s enough red flags in the peripherals that an absolute disaster (6+ ERA) is well within the realm of possibilities. In fact, there’s already been a post showing that all other pitchers in the last 50 years with this kind of gap between their ERA and peripherals have exploded in the immediately following season.

I’ll take the under on innings and the over on ERA. I also think Miley outperforms him because Miley returns to being something in the neighborhood of average.

I think they still need 2 of Lynn, Cobb, and McHugh. Even then I think it's only an outside chance at a wildcard game.

Nope

I think that's a safe bet. Teams are getting a lot smarter, and there's certainly enough red flags here.

This is where I am. The terms make it hard to be upset with it, but I fully expect Cashner to be pretty bad. I'm thinking 5+ ERA.

It's not a lot of money and therefore nothing to be upset over... but I think he's likely to be bad, and doesn't move the needle. Add Lynn too, I still don't think they are good enough. Steamer has him good for a 5.40/5.24/5.23. I think that feels about right.

Not signing Chris Davis, not re-signing Mark Trumbo, trading Manny Machado, trading Zach Britton all would have been pretty effective strategies for cutting payroll.

Trumbo isn't hitting major league pitching. How many minor league outfielders can put up something near a .699 OPS in the majors?

I'm pretty confident Pedro Alvarez could do better vs RHP even if you don't want to trust one of the youngins. Trumbo has a sub .700 OPS vs RHP. We can easily find someone to best that.

That is actually true for most players. It was something many people here brought up when he was signed. The DH penalty is real.

Can you in 2017? Trumbo has a 84 wRC+ this season. His bat has been worth -11.5 runs. He has no use on a team trying to win. He provides no value in any facet of the game.

Chris Davis is gonna Chris Davis. He will be locked in for stretches, how long those stretches last are the differences between his seasons.

If I recall correctly, he did hit 90 on a few pitches. But yes, definitely not mid-90s.