Pickles

If he keeps playing defense as he did last night, and has for the entire season, I don't care what his defensive numbers say tbh. And at 27, and one hell of an athlete, I think we're a couple years away from seeing any significant decline.

I'm not worried about them "losing value." I already explicitly explained that: I prefer the security. They could get played into utility roles in many ways. They could get hurt. Urias could keep hitting like he has the last few months. Mateo's bat could crater. Henderson and Ortiz could light the world on fire in spring training, and just gradually take more and more playing time. Ideally, that's how it would happen. I do realize non-elite prospects are higher ranked than Urias ever was. I also realize non-elite prospects don't become the player Urias is right now 70% of the time.

Sure, but I expected Lopez' performance to decline. I don't expect Mateo's.

Agreed. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have value for us.

I disagree with that. I don't think Mateo's due for regression.

Right, because they didn't have anything in house. They still don't, beyond Urias. That's the point. Rookies of Ortiz and Westburg's status, that is to say non-elite, should be given the opportunity to win jobs. Productive young players on sensible contracts should not be shipped out to clear spots for said rookies until they are outplayed. If Urias and Mateo get played into a utility role, that's a good thing. That's good for the team.

I want to see more from Ortiz next year at AAA. Probably at least a month. But I guess I could see scenarios where he just absolutely destroyed ST and he started OD. But I want to see it. After that, he has every chance to beat out anybody on the big league roster if he can.

No, he helps our team at 2b because he's replacing Odor. I mean, I gotta be honest, fellas: We literally just spent an entire season playing Odor everyday at 2b, because that was probably the best option in org, until Henderson was deemed ready. I know we have some nice infield prospects in the system. I don't really feel comfortable trading away guys right now and just handing 2 spots to rookies. I don't want to be a broken thumb, or broken ankle, or busted prospect (and I like all of you really like Ortiz and Westburg, but neither is guranteed, and it's seems highly probable that both won't be immediate 2-3 win players as rookies) from having to go back to playing a guy like Odor. I'm not saying Urias needs to start. I'm not even saying Mateo needs to start. I'm saying Westburg has every opportunity to beat out Urias for 2b next year from day one. But I"m not trading Urias till he does that. I'm not worried about any "lost" value that Urias will take from such a turn of events. I prefer the security.

I understand that. But again, I'm not looking to maximize Urias' individual value, defensive or not, I'm looking to maximize the defensive value of my entire team.

I don't think there's anything to support he has little defensive value at 2b. It's still an important position, arguably more important than 3b.

I think he's worth more to us than somebody else. You make the point: I don't want to trade a 3 WAR 28 year old making peanuts for some low level prospects; I'm certainly not in a rush to do it. And if that involves us "slow rolling" Joey Ortiz- and to be fair, I don't think that accurately describes the situation at all- then that's fine with me.

Well, I think we're taking a differnt perspective on optimization. I bolded the above because I don't think there's a real trade to be made there. We're not getting anything of value there. If he establishes himself further he can later be traded. If he gets out played by a youngster and moves into a UTIL role, or even if he plays himself into one, I'm okay taking that risk because not really giving up anything. It's kind of the point I was making with Mateo as well.

Then so be it. I'm not sure I'd say "likely" but it is definitely possible. You know what else is possible? He hits better next year, puts up a 4+ WAR season, and has significant more trade value in 13 months.

And the team would be much better with him at 2b than 3b. That's what I care about.

Do you mean in a trade to other teams? Or for what he's actually producing on the field? I think the first is largely irrelevant as it's not like other teams don't know he can play 3rd. And in the context of what he produces individually, I don't really care. I don't care about putting individuals in positions which optimize their defensive value. I care about optimizing the defensive value of the team, and so I want the best team configuration I can get defensively. And from what I've seen so far, 3b Henderson, SS Mateo, and 2b Urias is that configuration.

Play him at second. I'm not sure it really diminishes his value. In what context?

Full seasons of Henderson and Rutschman, and no Odor hardly counts a fairy dust.

Look if they consolidate and trade Hays and Westburg for example for a "big bopper" in LF, I'm not inherently opposed to such a thing. I'd probably cheer it on. But I'm not sure if those kinds of deals are out there, and I'm all for maximizing the assets currently in the organization, and, again just for example, taking a 3 WAR Gold Glove SS and turning him into a super utility guy, so I can fast track a prospect, doesn't do it for me.

Full seasons from Rutschman and Henderson. Hopefully, bounceback/growth from Mountcastle/Hays. Getting Odor off the team, and one of Urias/Henderson/Ortiz the majority of ABS at 2nd. Maybe a better back up catcher. There's plenty of room for growth for the guys in house. That's why it's nice to be a young team. I, personally, if I'm looking to upgrade from outside of the organization, I'm looking much more on the pitching side.

If Big Buck Hunter taught me anything, it's that a Kudzu is an African animal, similar to a gazelle.

Yeah, you keep having takes that I feel the need to cosign on. We have no replacement CFer in the organization, unless you want Ryan McKenna or Brett Phillips to get a whole lot of at bats, and I don't think anybody wants that. Maybe next summer Cowser has shown enough to stake that claim, but he hasn't done it yet.

I guess that's kind of the point. Just for example, Mateo and Urias are being discussed in this thread. BWAR has them both over 3 WAR for this year, and neither is doing anything to suggest they can't replicate that next year. Do I look at a guy like Ortiz and just say he's for sure to get 3 WAR next year? No, I don't. About the only prospect I would have said that about that's come up through our farm system recently is Rutschman. Now, if Urias hits like he has the last few months early next season and Ortiz continues to rake in AAA, the equation starts to change. But I'm not going to start "demoting" 3 WAR players over 100 ABs in AAA. Now, again, a guy like Adley or Gunnar has a different equation. And if the player being replaced is Rougned Odor or Pedro Sandaval that's a different story too.

Won't change much for me. He's a guy with minimal AAA time, who has missed time over the last few years, and really only has performed as an elite prospect for a few months now. Now that's not to diminish what he has done, and his potential, but I'm not handing over a starting spot to him in a year I want to make the playoffs. Honestly, at this point in the organization's development, where I expect to compete for the playoffs every year, I don't expect a ton of rookies to be handed starting spots on Opening Day. Because they're going to have to be really, really good prospects to be better than what they're replacing, and if they're that good as prospects, they're probably good enough to manipulate their service time.

Now, don't you go posting in the spirit of the OP!

I'm not eager to push out either. I want Mateo starting at SS next year, and I think Urias should be at least the utility. But Mateo is the more valuable asset. I have no doubt about that.