Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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16 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:
I am relieved they finally made the move to send Harvey to the bullpen It does crater his "prospect status" because we can't dream he'll develop into a TOR starter, but the possibility of having a young, inexpensive, high-leverage power arm at the back of the bullpen is good enough for me.
I went Henderson-Baumann because using Tony's "Who would you rather have in the system" rule, Henderson is a high upside power bat with the ability to play the left side of the infield and the only other option that included Henderson was Kremer who I'd rate below Baumann because he doesn't have the same upside.
That's largely how I felt about.
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Should have looked at this before I picked 7 and 8.
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I think Henderson is the first upside guy the OH staff loves. And I think they like Baumann more than Lowther or Kremer. I don't really think Harvey has any place this high on the list.
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Just now, Philip said:
So, is Hays at his best better than AJ at his best?
I'll go ahead and say "No."
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Thanks for the write ups Tony.
I'm 6 for 6 so far.
What I'm waiting to hear about is some pitcher in A ball not getting any hype. You've been the first on a bunch of trains that reached their destination.
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Just now, Frobby said:
Put it this way: if Mountcastle becomes a 4 WAR player and Hays and Diaz exceed that, I’ll be a very happy man.
I know, we’re talking about ceiling here. Still.
I already said I’d put Hays above Mountcastle on my personal list. But it’s very close between the two IMO.
Oh, if they all do that we'll be pretty competitive pretty soon.
That ain't happening.
I definitely believe Mountcastle has the highest floor. And that really isn't close. But I have to be honest, when I look at it I see .280/320/500 first baseman. Nothing wrong with that.
But I'd rather have either of the other two guys if they approximate their ceilings.
And yes, it is very close among these three. As always, the discussion breaks down into tiers, and I think all of these three guys fall on the same tier for me.
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Just now, Frobby said:
I think 4 WAR/yr is a reasonable ceiling for Mountcastle. I’m not sure Hays or Diaz has a higher ceiling than that. And nothing wrong with a 4 WAR ceiling.
Nothing wrong with it at all.
But I personally think both Hays and Diaz have higher ceilings than that.
If either of them put up a 900 ops (which is not outside the realm of possibility) they'll very likely exceed 4 WAR.
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Just now, weams said:
I believe in that bat. Especially if he'll walk upon command.
I believe in the bat too. I'd be very surprised if he pulled a Sisco.
But there's a reason it's extremely rare to hit .300 every year in the major leagues.
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12 minutes ago, weams said:
Oh, he might hit 350!
If he consistently hits .300 in the big leagues then he should definitely be ranked higher than Hays and Diaz.
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8 minutes ago, weams said:
Average defense and no baserunning does not a failed big bat make.
I didn't say failed.
I actually wrote he has a higher floor than Hays and Diaz.
Look at Mancini. He played damn near every day this year and put up a 900 ops. He was terrific. He was also worth 3.3 wins. Even if you want to grant him some defensive value for whatever reason, he's worth like 4 war a year.
And I think that is a real nice projection for Mountcastle.
To see him becoming an "all-star" caliber player you have to really believe in the bat in a way I don't.
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Back to Mountcastle:
This is my first personal divergence from the OH list.
I would have Mountcastle below Hays and Diaz.
I have no faith in Mountcastle to provide any defensive or baserunning value.
I like the bat- don't love it- mainly for the well-hashed concern over his plate discipline.
It's very difficult to project any minor leaguer to be a consistent .300 hitter in the majors. As a bat-only first baseman without ob skills, he's going to have to hit .300 to be an above average regular.
I think he has a higher floor than the two mentioned earlier, but I think he has a lower ceiling.
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Something worth noting, is the O's were real soft with Grayson and Adam in terms of innings pitched. Both only threw about 80+. Both are a few years even with ideal development away from being able to throw 150 innings in a major league rotation. They will, obviously, both be brought along very slowly.
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Seen this coming a mile away.
And I agree.
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To the question at hand, I think first you have to ask yourself how much playing time each will get and how valuable you think they will be in that playing time.
I think Mountcastle gets around 400 abs, regardless of the exact day he comes up. I'd like to see him put up a WAR. I think he'll hit ok- certainly not middle of the order guy right away- but I think he'll play enough outfield that his defense will bring his value down quite a bit.
I think Hays is handed the CF job from the jump. I don't think he gets 700 abs or anything, because he's never shown that kind of ability to stay healthy. I think he can get as many bats as he stays healthy for, which I'd ballpark around 550. I'd like to see him put up 2 WAR. I would not be shocked if he significantly outperformed this. I would also not be shocked if he can't stay healthy and is middling.
I was disappointed in what I saw of Stewart. I think they'll give him a chance this year and give him some PAs, especially early. Frankly, Mountcastle is going to take a lot of Stewart's abs when he does arrive. His playing time will fluctuate the most with how he is performing this year the most out of these guys. 300 abs and 1 WAR might even be ambitious.
So, I think 1200 abs or so and 4 WAR or so, is a median guesstimate for their cumulative impact next year.
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Well, maybe. I could see that happening.
I wouldn't punt him for nothing over 2 mil in salary. That's just me.
If they do that, well, more power to them.
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Well, to be fair, my initial ask was far higher than the article you provided sets the #. I said 9.8; the article said 9.1, so you could take that down a bit.
I think it is very reasonable to think he ends up below 9. I think it is likely he ends up below 8.8.
I don't think the difference between 9.1 and 7.7 is going to be much of a determining factor for how the O's can allocate their resources.
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Just now, weams said:
Does not seem to be even a chance of under 8.8. Not what he is worth. What he will get. If tendered.
I think the most likely outcome is they settle.
He doesn't ask for 10. He asks for like 9.8.
The O's offer 7.7.
They settle at 8.6.
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Just now, Frobby said:
I will predict he gets $8.8 mm. Earned himself an extra million or so with his strong second half.
I would take the under.
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4 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:
Doesn't he forfeit the remaining money if he retires? So no chance.
I could stand being embarrassingly bad at my job for 70 million...
What if you had already made 100 million? Would it be worth it then?
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7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:
This isn't 1950. There isn't any respect for the game anymore. Players are all about the $$$$s. And I'm not going to fault Davis for having that mentality because he's just like everyone else. The Orioles were naive and stupid enough to offer him that contract and he's entitled to every penny. I just don't want to see him earning them in an Orioles uniform.
Plenty of people have a lot of respect for the game. And for themselves.
Clearly, Davis has very little of either.
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5 minutes ago, milbest77 said:
I have a feeling it is not his choice to continue to play. It has more to do with “we will not pay you to sit at home”
Of course he has a choice.
Again, it's a simple one.
Retire with over 100 million in career earnings.
Or continue to embarrass himself and disprect the game, organization, and fans to get every last filthy penny.
And I don't have to pretend to respect him for making the second choice.
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Just now, LookitsPuck said:
Retire and get paid the contract that he earned and deserved? Sure.
Retire and live on the hundred+ million dollars he's already accumulated.
Or embarrass himself and disrespect the game, the fans, and the organization in order to get every last filthy penny.
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2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:
It's not on Davis, it's on the team. I can't fault Davis for cashing those checks. It's on whoever negotiated/ordered the contract. Angelos, Sr, Buck, Brady...we'll never know.
I get that.
But he's already cashed over 100 million dollars of those checks.
If he respected himself and the game, he could manage to forgo the rest.
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1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:
There were two options. Chris Davis doesn't talk to his manager, just goes about his business and doesn't address the media or the fans. Or, he has an honest sit down with his manager and puts a presser out there to address the media, fans (and to an extent - ownership).
It's a damned if he does, damned if he doesn't scenario, it seems. I'm just happy he stepped up. It would have been easy for him not to.
I don't analyze the character of the players from afar. Just because somebody flips a bat after a homerun doesn't make them a bad guy for instance.
But I'm at the point where Davis' behavior is indefensible imo.
If he wants to really "step up" and respect himself, the game, and the organization, he'd retire immediately.
Who will be the #7 and #8 prospects?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Here's my reasoning that this is too high for here:
I think his days as a SP are over. He got BAD results last year starting. Go look at the numbers. He was the worst of the AA starters by far. Between not getting results, and the arduous process of building him up to the point he could throw 180 innings a year, imo it's safe to say he won't start anymore.
So he's a BP guy. Ok, fine. He can still have a future here, and help. However, on a "Who would you rather have?" kind of evaluation, anybody who has MOR upside is more valuable. Unless you think Harvey goes full Britton in the pen.
So if you want to rank him over Akin? Sure, I get it.
But over Baumann, in particular, I don't see it.