wildbillhiccup

I think it boils down to how we view Luzardo. You view him as a pitcher who has just one good season and I view him as a younger pitcher under team control for longer who's just starting to come into his own. If you don't think he can continue to build upon the gains he made last season (I do) then I completely understand why you might prefer Cease. As for your second question the answer is, it depends. If I was a team looking to contend this season I might. If not, then I'd keep the younger player with more upside.

I understand your point of view, but I'm not overpaying for Cease. To me, giving up both Westberg and Kjerstad (as opposed to just one) would be a significant overpay IMO. And the only way to justify giving up that much would be if the Orioles intended to try and immediately extend Cease and lock him up for more years post trade (like the Twins did with Lopez last season). That's the only way I could get behind Westberg + Kjerstad package. For the record I voted for the Luzardo trade. I wouldn't be thrilled with having to part iwth Mayo, but I think the value would be better given the fact that he's younger than Cease and under team control for longer.

I just think it's too much given the return (mostly the limited years for Cease). I could understand headlining the trade with one of Westberg or Kjerstad, but I would have a hard time giving up both unless we planned on tryin to extend Cease like the Twins did with Pablo Lopez last season.

I'm floored that folks are voting for Westburg and Kjerstad for just two years of Cease. Ya'll are nuts.

100%. Basically what we're thinking the White Sox are asking for Cease is what we would realistically have to pay for Luzardo.

You're not nuts in wanting Luzardo, but you are nuts in thinking that this trade package is enough to land him. Luzardo is a younger more controllable pitcher than Cease and I don't see any trade scenario (for him) where we wouldn't have to give up Mayo or Basallo. Mateo has zero to no trade value and Santander has very little trade value because of his age, poor/mediocre defense, and the fact that he's a FA after this season. I also don't see this team trading a veteran and then signing another veteran. If they trade a Santander, Mountcastle or Hays type it should be to free up playing time for one of their younger players. Even if they did there's nothing in Bellinger's underlying stats that suggest most of what he did last season is sustainable.

Of course you would, because it would be even more ridiculously lopsided (in our favor) than the original trade that was suggested. Any trade for Luzardo would have to include Mayo or Basallo as the headliner. And yes Santander has very little trade value despite what you think. He's a mediocre\poor defender, who's older, only under contract for one more season, and not even really a bargain at his current price. He's also a poor OBP guy and really only excels in the HR department. It's not the 90's anymore when "chicks dug the long ball". No one is going to put a lot of value in that type of player profile in the current era of baseball.

To be fair you're probably not really the target demographic for the Caravans (even if you lived closer). I'm not defending the poor management of these events (players dropping out, etc.), but I don't mind them trying something different and getting out into the communities a bit. That said, they really should do a Fanfest AND the Caravan.

Ironic verb choice considering the lack of money flowing out of the Warehouse this offseason.

I'm hoping for more than his Steamer projections, especially in the ERA department. I also don't think him having a 2023 Michael Wacha season is out of the realm of possibilties. JOHN MEANS' STEAMER PROJECTIONS 4.42 ERA / 135 IP / 23 GS / 7.23 K/9 / 8 W / 8 L MICHAEL WACHA'S 2023 NUMBERS 3.22 ERA / 134.1 IP / 24 GS / 124 Ks / 14 W / 4 L

Tim Anderson was a very productive player for them (at least offensively) prior to last season. And he was dealing with some pretty nasty personal stuff for most of 2023 (albeit because of his own doing). I'm less convinced that he's completely washed at age 30 then I am that Paul DeJong (his replacement) will have a sub .200 batting average this season. We're really splitting hairs though. The bottom line is they have terrible all around team that is much more than one or two pieces away from contending.

Bounce back seasons from who? Aside from Cease there's not a sliver of upside on their entire roster AND they don't have Burge, Anderson or 1/2 their bullpen this season becuase they traded them all away. The only thing the White Sox are going to be contending for is the worst record in MLB this season.

You make a good point and it's hard to imagine that Reinsdorf won't meddle to some extent based on his past track record, but we'll have to see how it plays out. And I took a quick peek at the White Sox roster again this morning. I'm not even sure they're better than teams like the A's, Royals, and Rockies. If you remove Cease from their starting rotation then I think they arguably have the worst pitching staff (SPs and RPs) in all of baseball. This is a team in desperate need of a full rebuild and the sooner Getz, Reinsdorf or whoever realizes that the better off they'll be (in the long term).

The difference is the White Sox have terrible starting pitching (which drops to a puke emoji if they trade Cease) and terrible defense. And their offense is significantly worse than it was last season with Burger and Anderson no longer on the team. And this is a team that could only muster 61 wins even with those players last season. I'm not sure how you can talk yourself into thinking they realistically have any shot of contending. The Twins have the best ofense in the divsion and respectable enough pitching if they can add another starter, the Guardians probably have the best pitching staff and bullpen in the division, the Tigers are a young up and coming team, and even the Royals made offseason moves (for a change) to improve their team. Every single one of those teams, except the Royals, is significantly better on paper than the White Sox. And there's no minor league help on the immediate horizon (i.e., the calvary isn't coming). Look, I know it's hard to come to terms with your team sucking for a few years (we've been there), but trying to use a band-aid to stop a severed artery from bleeding doesn't work. The White Sox need to trade players like Cease, Jimenez and possibly even Robert, stock the farm system, and hit the reset button. Otherwise they're going to be stuck in non-contention purgatory for the next ten years.

And he probably wants to close. We can't offer either.

Yes it's a weak division, but do a side by side roster comparison of every other team in that division and tell me how any sane person could think they could contend in the next year or two. I mean it's like straight jacket padded room crazy talk.

Could be that he's just in over his head. Who knows. I'm just speaking to what appears to be the reality of the situation. I don't see how this team can possibly contend for at least the next two years. Eloy can't stay healthy, Moncada's a failed prospect at this point and Vaughn looks like he's barely a 20 HR guy. The only player with any semblance of upside on their roster is Robert. They also have a horrific starting rotation and bottom of the league type defense. The White Sox fans are in for some lean years with or without Cease.

I honestly don't think they have a choice. The White Sox are "that" bad.

If I'm the White Sox then the age of the prospects would weigh pretty heavily. The majority of their top prospects are younger so I would think they'd be looking for prospects who are on a similar timeline / trajectory. That would completely rule out Ortiz and to a lesser extent Westburg, Kjerstad and Cowser. I would be hyper focused on Basallo and Mayo and if the Orioles were unwilling to trade one of them I'd probably move on to the Yankees and ask for a package of their younger prospect because it would be a better fit for them then any of our seemingly ready MLB prospects not named Holliday. That's just the reality of the situation.

Well they traded Burger and two of their best relievers at the trade deadline last year and now they're rumored to be shopping Cease, Jimenez and even possibly Robert. Even with the recent gains they've made with their farm system (see article) I think it's safe to say the next two years are pretty much tank years. https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-systems-that-improved-the-most-in-2023

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I would as well. We keep trying to shove MLB ready 24 / 25 prospects down their throats, but I'm honestly not sure that's a selling to a GM if he realizes that his team is probably years away from contending. I imagine the prospects that Getz is interested in the most on our team are Holliday, Mayo and Basillo and that's largely because of upside and age. And unfortunately they're all worth too much for a two year SP rental. As much as the pundents like Rosenthal might disagree maybe we're not actually a great fit as trade partner for the White Sox.

Good point and I think the age of the prospects (compared to ours) might also be big selling point for the White Sox. All but one of the Yankees top six prospects are 22 or younger. If I'm looking to rebuild my team and didn't intend on competing for a few years that would heavily factor in if I was trading a player to try and restock my farm system. We keep pushing/suggesting guys like Westberg (24), Cowser (23)and Kjerstad (24), adn Ortiz (25 in this thread, but the reality is they're really probably not the best fit for a team that doesn't intend to contend for a few years. And unfortunately the younger players who we do have (Holliday, Basillo, and Mayo) are too high end to include in a trade for a two year rental.

I felt like Nicholas Cage in National Treasure trying to decifer this post. Are you trying to say that the FAs you listed are better values than Cease because we wouldn't have to give up prospects? If yes, I guess I agree with the general principal, but there's a very good chance that Wood and Lorenzen aren't upgrades over anyone in our rotation, which certainly has to factor in as well. Signing either one of them would be like buying toilet paper at Walmart just because it's on sale even though you already have a pallet of Charmin sitting in your garage. Are you trying to say that the other trade targets you mentioned are better values based on the expected trade cost? It seems a bit bizarre to group someone completely unproven like Garrett in with players like Luzardo, Burnes, and Gilbert. What in the world has he done to prove his worth and get such vote of confidence (from you)? And I can get behind lobbying for a Burnes trade over a Cease trade, but I'm not sure Luzardo is a no-brainer in terms of being a better value since he would cost considerably more than Cease. Also, Gilbert shouldn't be on this list. The Mariner's aren't a realistic trade partner anymore for a SP. Not after trading Robbie Ray and the other moves they've made.

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