MarCakes21
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Posts posted by MarCakes21
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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Ryan McKenna isn’t getting playing time..at least playing time that matters.
That's my point. If Ryan is on the team, Cowser/Hays are not.
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Let's remember who Cowser really needs to beat out for playing time. It's Ryan McKenna, not Hays. So from that perspective, if he proves better than Ryan, you let it play out.
He was a CF in the minors, he can be a serviceable CF in the majors, and unless Ced is out, he can make spot starts there and against tough righties in LF. It'll all play itself out. He should be able to find 3-4 games a week.
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The key is what does $35mil look like in 5 years. So in my mind, yes I'd lock these guys up, but maybe not for the total length. I don't think Witt is in these guys category yet, but if he progresses he likely will, as will Gunnar:
1. Corey Seager, Texas, $35,500,000
2. Carlos Correa, Minnesota, $33,333,333
3. Francisco Lindor, N.Y. Mets, $32,477,277
4. Trea Turner, Philadelphia, $27,272,727
5. Xander Bogaerts, San Diego, $25,454,545
Would you rather have Bogarts at age 31 or the potential of Witt/Gunnar at age 28. The valuation is likely similar.
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1 minute ago, interloper said:
Of course, the rest of the system depth is pretty strong. And with 2 long-term shortstops on the roster in Gunnar and Hollidy, it's not like we'll need a lot of SS depth that we can't fill with a ML signing for the bench, etc. But our once-vaunted middle infield depth in the minors has taken a hit with graduations and trades. That's all positive though because it means we're winning and we successfully developed a ton of guys.
I think this part is key. You have 3 shortstops on the big league club for 6 years (Henderson/Holliday/Westburg). And Elias has shown a routine for drafting the athletic SS/C/CF as up the middle staples. You have probably 3 years of not drafting a SS if you wanted to.
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On 2/1/2024 at 9:11 PM, Tony-OH said:
The expectation was that he would make the team but the Orioles are still fine without him. possible scenarios:
3B: Westburg
SS: Gunnar
2B: Urias
UTL: Mateo3B: Mayo
SS: Gunnar
2B: Westburg
UTL: Mateo3B: Westburg
SS: Gunnar
2B: Holliday
Utl: Mateo3B: Westburg
SS: Gunnar
2B: Norby
Utl: Mateo
The part I found the most interesting of this is Mateo. He's on the team no matter what, when many people assumed he was potential to be left off in favor of Ortiz.
I think the fourth option is very slim, as well as the 3rd to start the season. But either of the first two I'd be good with.
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16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
https://orioleshangout.com/2024/02/03/taking-a-look-at-the-bullpen-now-that-hall-is-gone/
Personally, I'd like to see them get another high impact reliever.
This is a good take. I think the big part of the problem is the lack of quality depth after the top 8. You know there will be injuries and shuffle and you really need 12+ relievers to make it through the season. Some of those pieces will be surprises - rule 5, non tenders, etc. But you still need more.
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6 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:
Ortiz + Hall first comment I’ve seen.
This is what I’m hearing too. Hopeful there’s an extension, if not it’ll sting a bit
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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:
It’s not necessary that it’s one or the other.
I think he's targeting what the new ownership gives permission on, a big trade or locking up the young guys.
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I think we've continued to talk with this one and it's around the industry too. What I think we've narrowed to is, assuming Miller/Woo are on the table only:
Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser for Miller/Woo (1 for 1, maybe small adds if necessary)
if Gilbert/Kirby are on the table, then you need more:
Mountcastle/Santander + Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser + Norby for Kirby/Gilbert
Is there one you'd prefer? I actually prefer the Gilbert/Kirby side more, because we can open up space internally too.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
I have said Cowser for Woo a lot. I think that makes sense (same with Miller)
That said, we don’t know what Seattle really wants. Could they be interested in ML pieces instead? Yes I can see that.
We have heard India’s name connected with them but he’s not that good but they are talking to a lot of guys and offense is definitely a priority.I think a lot of guys make sense, thus why we match up so well with them.
They seem to have an infatuation with IF pieces, like India. I've also heard rumors of Miller for Westburg straight up, so I could see the similar option.
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23 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
2024
Cowser or Kjerstad would have a good shot to compile #s this year if we decided to move one of Santander/Hays.
Mayo if for some reason he’s to OD 3rd basemen, but idk why we’d give up that extra year of control for three weeks this year.
Holliday would be one of the favorites if we could sign him to an extension this offseason.
2025
Going forward I could see that Kjerstad has is rookie eligibility for next year and we lose Santa and O’Hearn in FA.
2026
Basallo if an extension is reached. EBJ if he’s the day one starter in CF to replace Mullins. EBJ would get his feet wet in September of 2025.
This would be my plan
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13 hours ago, Absltgreek said:
Honestly I think back at the Guardian's announcements for their updates for Progressive field. Same architects as Camden Yards, and opened soon after. They have some pretty cool ideas that seem to sound similar to the requests/plans for OPACY. There's a good video on MLB showing a lot of these updates:
https://www.mlb.com/guardians/ballpark/renovations
This is awesome and would crush it in Camden I think
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2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
I just don't see any chance of holding these guys to 130 when they are ready or nearly ready to play now.
Yes, there is big upside to finishing #1, but there is big downside risk to finishing #2. Trying to get smart with this can very easily backfire, whether you push guys to go for ROY or slow play them to go for the extra year. I think the system is good in that there are incentives/disincentives either way and basically we shouldn't try to get too greedy either way. If you were thinking of giving Gunnar 150 AB's in '22, it obviously makes sense to hold him to 129, but I don't see that being the case with any of our '24 rookie group. They should all be getting 400+.
There's not room (currently) for 400 ABs for each of these guys. You'd have to trade Mounty, Hays, Urias to give those ABs to 4 rookies.
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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:
Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad, and Cowser should all get a shot at regular playing time this year. None of them should be limited to <130 AB's just to preserve rookie status for next year. I also don't think they need to start on the opening day roster.
If there is any opportunity for manipulation, it would be to slow play this group to ensure they don't finish #2 and lose the extra year like we did with Adley! I doubt they will do that but you never know.
If trying to get the pick, Basallo will be a candidate next year so slow playing this year's group will only cause more competition against ourselves next year.
All valid points. But is a lineup with more limited at bats for Mayo/Holliday/Kjerstad/Cowser going to net any of them ROY? I'd think if there's a desire to manipulate to maximize ones chance for ROY, you'd maximize one (or two) of there at bats.
We've seen some projections, while we'd like to see these guys, it's unlikely they truly outperform the likes of Urias/Westburg/Hays/Santander in their first year.
After that, you'd hold them down to less than 130 ABs to focus on the same optimization for next year.
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Given that there's a pipeline of top hitting prospects coming up, I have to imagine that Elias likes his chances to continue to add the extra draft pick with top ROY honors. The big question though is how he will manipulate this concept. He has 4 very capable potential winners over the next 3 years in my mind:
- Kjerstad
- Holliday
- Mayo
- Basallo
The nice part is they're all hitters. Much more likely to win ROY honors that pitchers given history.
The hard part about this is one could take away from the others votes in a given year. So he may try to stagger with no more than 2 per year. So how would you manipulate call ups to support this. My thoughts:
- Kjerstad start the season, Mayo (assuming space) mid season
- Holliday called up in August maintaining eligibility for 2025
- Basallo called up August 2025 maintaining eligibility for 2026
The other thought is that Elias won't care about manipulation and just put the best product on the field.
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43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
You don’t trade Kremer and Kjerstad isn’t a great idea if they are planning to move the guys like Hays and Santander before free agency
If I got 5 years of my number 3 in return, plus I believe in Cowser/Mayo + Beavers/Fabian to fill those roles you do.
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22 minutes ago, Safelykept said:
Ortiz, Kjerstad and Kremer for Cease, probably??? Come on man of course it gets it done. ( will Mike Elias)? only in PBradly board game
I pass, I think the same offer (maybe less) gets you Miller/Woo from the M's, and more control for your window.
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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Zippy chance he signs a 1-2 year for 8M.
MLB trade rumors predicts 2/$15. I'd take that, maybe even a little more. That's where my prediction came from.
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57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Why is everyone so high on this guy anyway?
His K rate is still good but it’s been on the decline for the last few years. Walk rate is high, HR is ok but not great.
His ERA was sub 2 in 2023 but he had a 219 BABiP(easily the best of his career), his xFIp was 4.5, his FIP was just under 4 and his xERA was 3.35. This was his first sub 3 ERA season since 2019.
He’s going to get way overpaid because of a sub 2 ERA this year when in reality, he’s probably a 3.5ish ERA pitcher with some declining stats, although his statcast numbers are pretty solid.
"His statcast numbers are pretty solid". - This
He has closer experience, is a veteran and is okay doing setup or closer by committee, has good stuff, and won't command the same deals as some of the big name closers. I think you could get him for 8mil per at 1 or 2 years.
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10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
The one year closers make the most sense. Kimbrel, Robertson (I know he wasn’t mentioned), or Chapman. I don’t see them spending for Hader. Hicks is possible but unlikely. I’d guess Robertson with Kimbrel 2nd.
Why not Neris on the list?
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I want Woo/Miller/Gilbert/Kirby from the Mariners for control plus a number 3 and I think we're one of few teams with depth of assets to do it.
If we're signing someone I'll just focus on the BP and roll with what we have.
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22 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
Wei-Yin Chen: The Next Generation?
The original was great!
I was thinking Koji, let his stuff play on the back end
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11 hours ago, Frobby said:
From the horse’s mouth:
“Another crucial thing to bear in mind is that the basic ZiPS projections are not playing-time predictors, at least with players without firm possession of a full-time job in the majors. By design, ZiPS has no idea who will actually play in the majors in 2024. ZiPS is essentially projecting equivalent production; a batter with a .240 projection may ‘actually’ have a .260 Triple-A projection or a .290 Double-A projection. But telling me how Julio Rodríguez would hit in a full-time role in the majors in 2022 was a far more interesting use of a projection system than it telling me that he would only play a partial season (in the end, quite obviously, he played a full year).”
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/here-come-the-2024-zips-projections/
So weird. Why put Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo around 400 ABs, but have Colton Cowser and Jud Fabian over 500 then.
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Can someone remind me of the way these are calculated, mainly on the PA level? Ie, Jud Fabian is getting 516 PAs. But that's not at the ML level, so what is that a projection of? Why do so many PAs look prorated accurately and so many others just full and arbitrary?
Jackson Holliday spring training watch
in Orioles Talk
Posted
This is still the right point. And Burnes being here doesn't hinder the fact that the best 26 on Opening Day does not have the be the same best 26 at the start of playoffs and still maintain rookie status for '25.