MarCakes21
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Posts posted by MarCakes21
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@Tony-OH Where does Carter Young fall? I was excited about him as an overslot guy in 2022, with a chance for upside, but it doesn't look like he performed thus farm.
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52 minutes ago, mddisney said:
This guy is tailor made for the rule changes. If he gets to MLB and can hit we have a disruptor period
I'm actually not a fan of these types, I think they hit less than desired at the big league level so their eye needs to be amazing. In my mind, there's too many Estuary Ruiz/Jorge Mateo/IKF/Billy Hamilton types in this group.
Now I'm hoping for more from Bradfield, but not expecting it.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
I like Burnes a lot, I just don’t want to put that many eggs in a one-year basket.
Would you do Cowser for Burnes? Westburg? Kjerstad?
After those three I think lower tier and you'd be giving up multiples.
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3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
You’re basically getting 3 MLB ready starters. If you hit on 2 you’d be pretty happy.
Nothing wrong with it, I agree with the approach. I'd like to maximize the return I get for some combo of Santander/Hays/Westburg/Cowser/Ortiz/Norby/Stowers.
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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:
I’d offer them Cowser or Ortiz, Norby, Stowers, and a lottery ticket type.
This seems to be the going rate, ie what can we get for some combo of Cowser/Ortiz/Norby/Stowers.
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
Whoever proposed that bites.
I agree after Tony's write up. I think a lot of us were thinking less of Mayo until then (except Roy). I wouldn't pull the trigger either, but a Burnes trade puts this staff near the top in the bigs.
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ESPN proposes the big move of Burnes for Mayo straight up. Who bites?
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14 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:From mlbtraderumors chat. The price on Gilbert wouldn't be much less. Was talking about a 1:1 swap of Holliday for Kirby.
I don't think I'd do it because I always like our guys more, but it's probably close, and I like Kirby a bunch. I'd rather a package of guys for Kirby/Gilbert, or move down to lesser pieces for Miller/Woo.
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Another option is to play safer and go something like Norby for Hancock. We can put Hancock in the minors and have him penciled as our 6/7 guy when injuries happen.
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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I’d rather trade less for Woo than trade a lot for Gilbert.
Why? And why Woo over Miller?
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
You are going to pay LH 7M to not pitch in 2024?
Good point. I'll pay Robertson 1/$7 instead. I didn't realize he was out all of 24.
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My realistic:
Trade Santander, Ortiz and Norby for Bryce Miller
Trade Mateo OR Urias for MIL depth
Sign Hector Neris 2/$16
Sign Liam Hendrix 1/$7
Let's the young guys play, slots in a 3/4 behind GRod/Bradish and around Means/Kremer. Strengthens the back end of the pen. Gives full time ABs to Kjerstad, with a time share for Mountcastle and O'Hearn again. Allows you to bring up Holiday as soon as you're ready.
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1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:
I floated Santander + Mountcastle + two top 10 prospects (in the Ortiz/Norby/Beavers/McDermott/Povich range) in another thread. I think this lines up with what Elias might be willing to part with, as well as the Mariners immediate needs (corner OF and 1B offense).
Which Mariners pitcher would fans want to see come back for that type of trade package and would it be realistic from the Mariners perspective?
Not that its a perfect site, but BB trade value has them at the following excess value:
- Mountcastle (13.6)
- Santander (5.3)
- Ortiz (13.8)/Norby (8)/Beavers (4.2)/McDermott (2.1)/Povich (5.1)
Miller and Woo are 25.8 and 24.6 respectively. Hancock is at a 4.
If you treat these as true value, I think you'd be looking in the Miller/Woo range as possible. I don't think I'd want to to give up Beavers/McDermott/Povich in the deal, so would look more at a package of Mountcastle OR Santander + Ortiz/Norby
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3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
It would be more like Holliday + Santander + a couple more pieces. Young, controllable, TOR starters are very expensive. Would you trade Bradish for Santander, Kjerstad and Norby?
Not in the Orioles situation with the readily available hitting assets in the minors, but I see what you're saying. I also don't think it's far off to trade Santander/Kjerstad/Norby for Bradish. 12 years of 1st division/potential all star plus one current 3-5 hitter.
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35 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
In a 1 for 1, I doubt it. But Soto + an FV 55 for Gilbert or Kirby?
BTW - I stink at these trade proposal games!
Probably right. Soto gets you about 20-30mil in current excess value. Gilbert and Kirby could get about 15mil excess per year for 5 more years.
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2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
Man, that makes complete sense for SEA and SDP. SEA + Soto is scarier IMO.
For sure Soto is scarier. But would they have to give up Gilbert or Kirby for one year of Soto?
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16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
I think SEA would be interested in IF and OF upgrades. But I think they want a degree of control too. Any of the names mentioned are attainable, even Gilbert or Kirby.
I’d work with SEA more than targeting the Biebs.
This is where I am.
I'd prefer Gilbert/Kirby, I just think the ask would be more like Santander+Kjerstad+Norby, maybe more. Which I think I'd still be okay with.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
We just don’t know what Seattle is looking for. Do they want established ML talent or do they want a ML ready prospect like Cowser, for example.
It would be pretty surprising if Seattle didn’t trade one of their pitchers for offense this offseason.
I'd be willing to trade from both out ML ready prospects, or our current ML talent. Cowser/Kjerstad hold more value than Hays/Santander long term, and maybe even more straight up than Miller/Woo. I would target Glibert if you were to give up one of those guys.
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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
Santander/Ortiz?
I would do this for Miller.
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2 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:
The Mariners won't bite on that. Top level pitching prospects will command much more that what you've offered.
Let me ask it this way, if you were the Mariner's GM, would you give up those pitchers for Santander and Fabian?
Would you hang up the phone and not call back? They have Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo to go with Marco Gonzales already. Plus Kirby/Gilbert/Miller/Woo/Hancock. They need a MOO piece thats ready to compete now.
So what offer would you make if you were the Ms GM?
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Something I see occasionally talked about is a Mariners/Orioles ML talent trade. I think this is where we'd want to be because:
1. It clears some playing time for our upper level ready pieces
2. It gives us ML pieces in return with controllable years
https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/seattle-mariners-seen-strong-trade-fit-duo-orioles-veterans
Assume Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are off the table for our ML pieces (Santander/Hays/Mountcastle). What offer would you put together for:
- Bryce Miller
- Bryan Woo
- Emerson Hancock
For me something like Miller/Woo for Santander/Hays + Fabian
or Hancock for Santander
Who bites?
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I'm on the yes side. I think we have some ML ready talent ready to put up a 100+ OPS+ metrics in his place and Bieber can fill a back end slot.
We also talk a lot of trading Santander, there's many ways you could shake this. If you think you can get more out of a signing for ERod + a trade for MIL pieces for Santander than you do that too. I'd take 3-4 pieces from another team if theyre willing to pay to allow some current slots to open up. Same thing with Hays. But you have to be able to sign the SP too.
The other option is a straight ML for ML trade with SEA.
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47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Gunnar, Basallo, Mayo and Holliday are the easy 4 for me.
The only other maybes are GRod and Adley…Tough call for me to even extend them at all. Probably go Adley since he hits FA sooner but I wouldn’t go beyond 6 years.
I'm surprised by the youth movement here. Is it because they'll be cheaper? If you lock them up for 8, you'll only be getting ~2 extra years of each of them.
With Adley/Grayson/Bradish, and even some of the older guys, you can buy out a lot more, plus still have all the youth. They're more known commodities at this point and will obviously cost more, but you can ensure you know what you have in the way of talent.
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27 minutes ago, wildcard said:
I don't think any on them belong in lock up.
Why’s that? Think you can just replace them after they reach FA?
Orioles ZiPS are out
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Can someone remind me of the way these are calculated, mainly on the PA level? Ie, Jud Fabian is getting 516 PAs. But that's not at the ML level, so what is that a projection of? Why do so many PAs look prorated accurately and so many others just full and arbitrary?