Filmstudy
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This was the Orioles 503rd ever walkoff win:
Today's WP was the 3rd time they'd walked off on a WP (6/25/14, 6/26/54)
They walked off on a PB (4/20/16)
They walked off on a balk (4/28/00)
And they walked off on a steal of home (8/15/79)--Eddie Murray stole home on a delayed double steal with Decinces at first and lefthander Guy Hoffman got caught trying to pick him off
What a game and a run the Orioles are on now. This FEELS like 1979 in some ways and the Tigers were a big part of the magic then as well.
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3 hours ago, emmett16 said:
How did you find record by division?
b-ref.com has it here:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml
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Pick the 6 Orioles whose 2023 performance will have the most impact on the team making the postseason and give your reasoning if you like.
I'll start and add that I'm doing this primarily by variance of performance I see as likely:
1. Mateo--There is plenty of discussion on the board about how valuable Mateo would be with an OBP of .725 or .750 and his variance has to be the most of any player given his play to date
2. Henderson--There will (and have been) growing pains in year 2, both offensively and defensively. We've also seen evidence of a disciplined plate approach that can only help him as a hitter.
3 Rutschman--He's already one of the best players in the league, but we don't know his ceiling yet nor if regression to something below last season is possible.
4. Rodriguez--Better early command and he could be the ToR starter we've all been hoping for, but I can't rule out the possibility he has more time in AAA this season
5. Bautista--High leverage appearances from a high-variance athlete
6. Wells--I'm buying into the hope of a big upside, but it's not a sure thing by any means
The Orioles have a deep and talented supporting cast including Gibson, Mullins, Hays, Urias, Mountcastle, Santander, Kremer, Bradish, and pick your relievers (or let Hyde/Elias sift through them to find the hot hands), but I feel those players in aggregate with the remainder of the roster might get the team to within a few games of .500 (maybe .490 to .500) if the above 6 were all .500 WAA players. I'll figure 92 wins to make the playoffs through the back door, which is .568. That would mean the big 6 would have to average a WAA of approximately .513 per 162 for the Orioles to make the postseason.
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So far this year in the AL:
AL East: 65-37, .637
AL Rest: 84-113, .426
If you remove the division games (which by definition include .500 divisional record)
AL East: 51-23, .689
The Orioles are one of several teams benefitting from the more balanced schedule.
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On 4/15/2023 at 9:43 PM, Frobby said:
It’s more like 70-72%. It varies a little depending on the overall run scoring environment. In a low scoring environment, the break-even percentage goes down, in a high scoring era it goes up a bit.
That's the right neighborhood as I recall from Bill James talking about Henderson hurting the A's in 1982 (slightly) with his 128 SB season. It's also about right by the old linear weights model.
One thing I don't often hear discussed is how not running enough can hurt you. The idea is this, the Orioles have stolen 25/28 successfully (89.2%), which is clearly a net positive of runs, but are they passing up on marginal opportunities to steal with an 80% success rate given the new environment for pitcher constraints/base-to-base distance? I'm not saying that is happening necessarily, but it's something to inspect with the team and league SB% in the stratosphere.
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- Popular Post
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Through 18 games, the Orioles have now outwalked their opponents 87-49, an edge of 2.11 per game.
This has been a return to the baseball of my youth (I became a fan in 1971), during which the 1968-1985 Orioles (coincident with the 18 consecutive winning seasons) outwalked their opponents in every single season and by an average of more than 100 per year. Some of it was pitching and some of it was the hitting, but the grinding always made baseball entertaining and dramatic to me.
I hope the value of walks and all of the ancillary benefits from outstanding plate discipline are not again lost to Orioles lore if Elias and his team move on.
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A couple of notes on Adley's historic day...
1. He raised his career OPS from .807 to .829
2. As has been widely discussed, that's the first 5-hit game ever on opening day for a catcher. To put that in context, since 1901, there have been 2786 opening day starting catchers (1393 games including 2023).
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3 hours ago, Frobby said:
Why is it not?
Did you mean to say "Why Not?"
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Yes on Grayrod, Cowser, Holliday all I would expect for PV of earnings over $50M over 10 years and each is capable of dwarfing that number.
Hall is a no, although I think he could be good. Too much risk as a pitcher who has yet to put it together and may be a reliever. I'll ride out his time as an Oriole and see how it goes.
Norby (22) I see as an above-average ML hitter, but he will suffer some from Camden Yards. He'll likely be ready for a ML callup next September, so let's call it 9 ML seasons are possible. I'm not sure Norby or his agent would be thrilled about a contract that sends him to Free agency for his baseball age 33 season. I'm not thrilled about his position on the defensive spectrum, on which a lot of value is wagered or his plate disciplne, which I see as unproven. I think I'd say $35-40M is a risk I'd take to get a good RHB in the middle of a predominantly LH lineup.
Mayo (21 in Dec) is young and has been doing OK relative to his level while much younger. We could see a big maturation in 2023, but I thought that about 2022 as well. His K rate is way up in 2022 and he's getting by with a BABIP he can't maintain. I think he has a good chance to be in the majors some time in 2024, but I'd factor for struggles with the ballpark and adjustment to ML pitching, since we've been seeing that. I think I can't come up with a number that would not insult Mayo, but 10 years for $28-36M is the sort of risk I'd be comfortable with. For him to sign such a contract, he'd have to be self-effacing enough to realize he might never make it for more than a year or 2.
Ortiz (Turned 24 in July) is not a spring chicken and on a tremendous heater currently. IN a sense, we'd be buying at the highest his stock has ever been. However, we don't know where he'll play in the bigs or if the O's have room for another infielder. As a hitter, I'm most worried about his plate discipline and I think he could reduce his streakiness with a commitment to that. Ballpark concerns persist for a RHB. I also don't like the fact that a 10-year deal would mean just a couple of years of expected improvement before inevitable decline. He might very well understand now how tenuous his ML future is, but the $18-22M I think it is worth risking to lock him up until he's 34 won't be an exciting number to him.
If you want to add 1 more name, I'd probably pay Jordan Westburg in the same range as Norby. Development track relative to age is close. Despite streakiness as a hitter, he's been extremely consistent in terms of total production for his time in the organization. This year, his XBH pop has made up for a significant decrease in BABIP, which seems more replicatable than the other way around. He'll also struggle with Camden Yards, but wouldn't it be great to find the needed RHBs in the minors rather than try to buy them via FA and possibly have to overpay.
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13 hours ago, tntoriole said:
On the flip side of collapse is ascendancy
from The Athletic
According to Elias Sports Bureau, only five teams since 1900 have lost 110 games one year and won at least 70 the next: the 1935-36 Boston Braves/Bees, the 1969-70 Montreal Expos, the 2003-04 Detroit Tigers, the 2004-05 Arizona Diamondbacks and the 2013-14 Houston Astros.
None of those teams won more than Montreal’s 73 in 1970. The Orioles will blow that turnaround record away, even if they win only 10 more games this year.
Want a little more historical significance?
Also according to Elias Sports Bureau, no club has ever won more than 70 games in a season after losing 100 or more in the three previous full seasons. The 1925 Boston Braves, the 1956 Washington Senators and the 2014 Astros – which included Mike Elias in the front office – all won 70 games after three consecutive 100-plus-loss seasons.“
The Diamondbacks won 77 games in 2005, so 7 more wins eclipses them. I'm hoping the Orioles top them by about 12.
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18 minutes ago, Yossarian said:
I watched the As TV broadcast of the game. Their crew (Duane Kuiper and Dallas Braden - who took over after Ray Fosse passed away) said the women in the Voigt jersey was Voigt's wife.
On a separate note, they said Camden Yards is the best ball park they get to visit and love the park and the city skyline. They also said they have one of the best press boxes, which they appreciate. They heaped a lot of praise on Henderson, Rutschman, and the entire youth movement and success of the Orioles this year.
Pretty cool twist. And it makes sense that anyone wearing a Stephen Vogt jersey must be a Vogt family member. There was a large A's fan contingent in that section, so I assume that's where all the comp seats were for players.
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Back to Gunnar, though...tonight's game was another blast and the most fun I've had at a game since 2016 for sure. Why?:
1. Gunnar has looked good defensively at 3 positions. He's maintained the wait-and-hit style he showed in the minors (even at the cost of increased Ks), and he can fly. For his ABs, like Adley's, I won't miss a pitch fast forwarding (something I do for almost every Odor AB when watching on TV--I'm much less frustrated seeing his ABs run by in approximately 10 seconds than 2 minutes).
2. Pennant race baseball is tense and satisfying with every win and every moment of a really good game like tonight. I know I don't have to tell the older folks this.
3. This race is starting to feel like 1974 in terms of the Orioles ability to go on a streak and pick up a lot of ground in a hurry. The 1974 Orioles were 63-65 on August 28, 8 games behind the Red Sox. They won 10 straight (5 shutouts, none with more than 2 runs allowed) and trailed the Sox by just 1 game on the way to a hotly-contested race...with the Yankees that they won by 2 games. Replace Red Sox with Yankees, Yankees with Rays, and I'm not ready to give up hope the 2022 O's can make a run at the division.
4. A woman in a Vogt jersey in the section next to us (31, row 1) had a foul ball come back to her and reached up to make the catch (with a glove). She was absolutely shocked she caught the ball. About 4 innings later, another ball came right to her and she dropped it (boos on what was a much easier grab).
5. Getting back to Adley. Everything about that bases-loaded walk was great. He walked up towards the plate to pinch hit for Hays, who appeared genuinely surprised he was getting pulled (it looked like Hays thought Adley had come out of the dugout to bat for Mateo). Great PA to draw the walk. My wife, Maureen said "I'm on the phone for a walk" before hand and was deleriously happy with herself after the go-ahead RBI. That wouldn't normally matter, but on the way back to the car she asked if Saturday was a night game also and said we should try to go again. She's the right girl for me.
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On 9/1/2022 at 9:19 PM, scarey1999 said:
Ha, just have to be lucky and get the right ones from unopened product. Or have enough money to buy them outright now after someone’s pulled them
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Crazy how much his cards have skyrocketed in value this year. I was very fortunate that I loaded up on his 2019 stuff long ago.
I get catalogs regularly from 2 big auction houses (Heritage and Goldin) with cards that I enjoy seeing in a catalog, but will never buy.
Let me start by saying I both love and hate the 1971 black border Topps set. My first year collecting cards, but they were simply impossible to keep in decent shape (for a 7-year old kid, anyway). So I have the full 1971 set (completed in the 1980s). I then saw the 1971 Thurman Munson (#5, gutter common first series) just sold via Heritage Auction for $200,000 in mint condition (not sure if it was 9, 9.5, or 10). I have the card, but it probably rates a 2-3 by today's condition standards, which makes it worth perhaps $20-50 (I'm guessing).
The point is that while I really enjoyed collecting at one time, hyper focus on the extreme right end of the condition curve has turned me off.
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
It’s not related to Adley’s base performance. It’s just the cumulative impact on the team’s chances of winning as the result of each at bat, given the game situation. For example, Adley’s most impactful at bat was on July 4, one out in the bottom of the ninth, runner on 1st, losing 6-5. At that moment, based on all like situations in baseball history, the Orioles had a 10% (.10) chance of winning that game. Adley hit a game-tying double. As a result, following that play the O’s now had a 61% (.61) chance of winning the game. So, Adley’s WPA for that at bat was .510 (.61 - .10).
I think the answer to the original question is that the baselines for WP are based on league average performance from that point forward in the game. That said, I don't know if they use a 3-year rolling average or just 2022, or whatever to model win probabilities by game/base/out situation.
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On 8/17/2022 at 1:19 PM, RZNJ said:
He's going to start next year as a 19 yo in Delmarva. You see the progress Deleon has made this year as a 20 yo at Delmarva. The hope is that Willems dedicates himself to getting better this offseason and puts himself back on the map next year. Next year is going to be kind of a make or break year for Willems, Deson, and Stiven Acevedo.
When talking about the offseason for football players I say that they all work out to stay in shape and what the great ones do is get positional coaching. In Creed's case, I think he needs to dedicate himself to conditioning, both dropping a bunch of weight and finding a dietary routine he can follow to stay in shape on the road next season.
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Stowers batting 5th tonight.
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I didn't see a prior post for him.
I notice he has been returned to the FCL for today's game, which will be his 4th stop this season (Bowie, Aberdeen, Delmarva also). That screams out "organizational guy" who they can move around to fill holes as needed like Cullen, Yahn, and others we've seen over the last couple of years.
Then I looked and he's only 20 (born 2/2/02). Is it unusual that a player is designated as an organizational piece at such a young age? I have seen there are some fairly significant rules/penalties for improperly reporting age, but do any of the 1980s questions about the veracity of age for Dominican players still exist today and perhaps extend to other players born outside the US (Mantecon is Cuban)?
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16 minutes ago, Frobby said:
And if he had a 1.000 August? Right now he’s at 1.159 after last night’s display.
I can’t find it right now, but somewhere you speculated about Ortiz finishing with an OPS over .800 and I posted some rough calculation of what he’d have to do the rest of the season in order to get there. It seemed like a pretty tall order at the time, even though Ortiz had been hot for a good while. As of today, he’s at .791 and there’s still 28 games to play. The math no longer seems very daunting.
With him turning 24 in July and the current hot streak, I'm surprised the Orioles have not moved him up to let him either succeed or fail forward in 100 or so AAA PAs.
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11 hours ago, Frobby said:
My thoughts (and several others’) are here:
Sorry, I see the thread duplication here, please merge.
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Non-heated discussion on twitter about how many wins it will take. I would take the over on 86.5 for the last spot, even though that means some teams are going to have to improve from their current winning percentages to get there. Reasoning:
1) September Effect says contenders play better and those out of contention play worse
2) Trades that reinforce disparity have not yet shown up in cumulative winning percentages
3) Teams that have more to play for are more likely to bring up minor leaguers that can truly help them down the stretch
4) There are 7 AL teams contending for the Central title plus 3 WCs, all of which have between a .521 and .539 winning percentage currently
5) There are 6 weak sisters in the AL (I'm including the Red Sox) which have a combined record of 296-407 (.421). I'd expect a drop off to perhaps .370 down the stretch which is going to help a lot of contenders fatten up.
Let's hear your over/under on wins for the last AL WC.
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39 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’ve seen multiple estimates of our playoff odds ranging from 8% to over 50%, but one thing I’ve noticed is that all of these systems are saying that the sixth team is projected to win 84-85 games. BB-ref currently has the O’s 6th at 84.7 projected wins, Fangraphs has Tampa 6th with 85 wins, and PECOTA has Tampa 6th with 84.1 wins.
The O’s are 59-53 with 50 games to play. So, are we expecting that if the O’s go 26-24 from here, they’ll make the playoffs? Stated that way, it seems like a pretty doable task.
But personally, I don’t think 85 will be the cut line. It’s inevitable that a couple of teams in this horse race will outperform projections while others fall behind. I’m guessing right now that 87 will be the actual cut line. So, 28-22 or better? That’s a tougher task. But we’ve played .597 ball in the 72 games since Adley arrived, so I’m not going to say it can’t be done.
The "September Effect" originally postulated by Bill James would tell you it will take more than 85 games. Winning teams get better in September, losing teams get worse when the games don't matter with trades/salary dumps making substantial contributions.
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the 1951 New York Giants had a record of 59-51 and trailed the Dodgers by 13 games.
Earlier (5/25) they had called up one of the best prospects in baseball just 3 weeks after his 20th birthday.
Despite a slump that dropped his OPS from .926 on 8/11 to .826 at the end of the season, The Giants went 37-8 down the stretch until Thompson's HR beat Branca.
The Orioles are 58-52 and trail the Yankees by 12 pending a result on 8/11 and have one of the best prospects in baseball at AAA.
Just saying.
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Another note on Rutschman's amazing rookie year...
Most of what we have heard to date in terms of greatness involves projection to a 162-game season or rate statistics like OPS. However, as of Today, in 60 games (!), Adley Rutschman has the 16th highest WAA (2.0, a cumulative statistic) for any rookie catcher in MLB history.
https://stathead.com/tiny/JXsmY
If he continues at the same rate, he'll crack the top 5 of all time with almost 4 WAA which could put him as high as 3rd all time behind only Fisk and Piazza, but ahead of Thurman Munson, Josh Gibson, Johnny Bench, and Buster Posey.
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25 minutes ago, rm5678 said:
He's playing 2B today and batting 3rd.
Analogous player from the 1980s...Tom O'Malley. Analogous isn't exactly the right word, since I think Vavra has the potential to be much better, but meteoric in-season rise was similar.
He wasn't a rookie in 1986, but was a 25-year-old, LHB, utility infielder with less than 1000 career ABs. Weaver liked something about him after a brief hot streak and installed him as the 3 hitter at Fenway Park on 6/22/86 and then left him there for 4 games. Even Earl played the hot hand once in a while instead of hi more common hitter vs pitcher stats.
O'Malley lasted until age 29 and played for 6 teams.
Walk Off Oddities
in Orioles Talk
Posted · Edited by Filmstudy
Stathead, the Pivotal Play finder.