btdart20
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Posts posted by btdart20
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yikes... When do we start projecting WHIP (or whatever) for the pitchers?
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None of these interest me. Tapia, Stratton, Tucker, and Caratini are all worse than Mancini (at least in context of this team). The rest of the guys have little to no chance of even making it to the MLB. This basically means Mancini is a salary dump...
If this is his market now, then keep him and hope the market shifts heading into the trade deadline. If not, then a 'send-off' PR stunt for the feel good.
Matt Hardy's BB:KK is interesting. But I don't really know anything about him.
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22 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:
As long as you're not trying to maximize wins . . .
5 pages of Shed Long related chatter proves this to be true.
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If he gets a career high in ABs, then something has gone wrong…. At least he hits lefty.
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15 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:
No question, labor negotiations are a standard part of business. But there's not always animosity as I believe there is in this case. Read multiple national outlets - both sides don't just want to win but want to make sure the other side loses.
Some of the animosity is a product of the day/age when things are discussed in public (i.e. see anything political and covered by outlets looking for clicks). There's a feed-back loop that's hard to get out of.
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Baltimore Orioles Top 50 Prospects (2022) (prospects1500.com)
They have Pinto ranked 38th, but the write up kind of betrays a good bit more optimism (and maybe a glimpse behind how he ranks). At least more aligned with Tony's ranking.
If Pinto wasn’t 5’11” we would likely be talking a top 15 talent. With a potentially plus splitter and slider, the only question is, if he can hold up to a full season as a shorter starting pitcher.
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I still shocked he got half a season of ABs in 2021...
I suppose his BB% is close to legit (13ish). Given that he's 28, it's tough to say he'll get under his career average K% (26.7). Average (at best) speed, lefty, who gets the ball in the air more often than not means his babip is what it is. Assuming all our other OFers are healthy, he'll get sporadic ABs to start the season. And my long-shot dream is we trade an OFer or two because Stowers and/or Cowser is tearing up the minors!
.680-.709
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Is the left-center wall going to jut out like that around the bullpen? Pretty cool if so!
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Was doing some bat research for my boys this summer and came across this video. Adley starts hitting around the 5:40 mark. It gets fun when he switches to hit lefty with a wood bat.
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Below average K% and BB% follows the trend from the MilB. He's a heavy GB hitter. He'll turn 28 in season. Beyond Urias (and 1B), the rest of the IF will be the follow the 'throw crap against the wall and see what sticks' approach.
.580-.619 with a chance for a little more.
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His speed is wasted on his aggressive approach to hitting. Take a few walks and a lower LA would really help his OBP/Babip.
.630-.659
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I highly doubt there will be any significant signings until we start seeing a few of the prospects produce in the MLB. Maybe next winter depending on the group of FAs (and system holes) we'll see some signings. I don't think they are signing players with wins in mind at this point though. More like reclamation projects or specific roles. Odor almost fits the reclamation profile. A guy who could hit 30+ HR and lucks into his career .722 OPS may have some type of trade value.
29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:They also have 6 infielders who could be failures, trades or injury prone.
True, those are legit risks so often overlooked in our dreams for a better tomorrow. When the team has so many holes (especially IF/pitching), spending money at this point won't really do anything other than buy a few wins here/there and maybe a little goodwill with the fans. We'll have to deal with the holes in the MLB level for a little longer. As some prospects start performing at the MLB level, I would hope we'll see these types of holes legitimately addressed.
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I read some interesting/odd stat a while back. Something like DL Hall is the only MiLB/MLB pitcher to have a 40% swing/miss rate on 4 different pitches. Having trouble finding where I read that though... Not sure if it was a fantasy article or a prospect article.
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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Its a matter of if the O's have someone better. Right now they don't. He is their backup infielder.
I look at Odor as buying time to see what we actually do have developing. I'll be rooting for the Odor for sure, but also for the guys behind him.
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Is this where we start talking about Vavra, Prieto, and anyone with a heartbeat in the minors?
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Bottom 1% xBA, bottom 5% xOBP, bottom 21% xSLG in 2021. Tons of regression and statistical deviation over the last few years. Consistently dropping speed. Maybe regression to mean (.720ish OPS)? The only real plus I see is that he pulls the ball to RF 44+% on his career and 51.6% in 2021. We're hoping for the same thing the Yankees did last year in their stadium. He'll be 28, but I don't think he has more upside than 2016. 2018-2019 is probably the best we can hope for. But unless the O's coaches can change his approach (less LA and better swings at breaking balls/off-speed pitches), it'll be more of the same (2020-2021). I'm going chalk with .660-.689 range with a chance for less.
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In general, good hitters will be promoted faster (competitive window not withstanding).
Anecdotally, Wieters was drafted in 2007. Got in a few MiLB games in 2007 as well. MLB debut in 2009. Sounds like we're counting that as 3 years. His MiLB performance was legendary. Not sure what side of the debate this supports...
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
If Norby isn’t ready until 2024, he won’t be good (or at least won’t be a ML starter) or has had injury issues.
9 minutes ago, Big Mac said:Most likely yes. I'd figure the goal trajectory is for him to start this year at Aberdeen, play the second half in Bowie and perform well enough to start 2023 in Norfolk. If that happens, he should be ready by mid-2023.
That's fair. Just going off what I've seen. Who has the first crack at the MLB of these? Vavra?
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.730-.769 - Last year was a great year for him. Doubt he can keep up the pace.
Edit to add: weird case where his MLB stats heading into 2022 are better than his minor league stats.
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The "I'm no expert" caveat definitely applies...
All have a plus BA/OBP floor profile. The differences seem to be ETA, fielding, and ceiling. Here's the order I would go:
1a. Prieto - 2022/23 ETA. The hit tool comparison to Nick Madrigal and breaking Kendrys Morales hit record are good conversation starters. Solid defensively. 18:50 mark of the podcast linked below gives some background on the O's landing him for the price (i.e. other teams already had committed their international budget when Prieto declared).
CubaDugout Locked on Orioles & César Prieto - Cuba Dugout
1b. Norby - 2024ish ETA. Probably the most projectable floor. His ceiling is a solid BA/OBP guy who may develop into a 15+ HR guy. Maybe the weakest fielding.
3. Vavra - 2022/23 ETA. But I'd say his floor is more questionable and has the lowest ceiling. But maybe the strongest fielding.
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.780-.809
Hopefully Trey can get back to mashing fastballs! That's what put him over the top in 2017 and 2019. 2021 was about getting back to playing form. He did that. I believe he'll take another "step forward"(regression to mean) in 2022. I'm honestly not sure it'll happen though without improvement against the fastball. But 2018 looks like an outlier of bad luck caused by a spike in GB (and his less than average speed).
He's another one with a righty/lefty split issue in 2021. On his career, his splits are pretty even but 2021:
Vs left - .288/.363/.535
Vs right - .237/.304/.374
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.270/.360/.450ish... Around .810ish... I'm excited for the next chapter to start!
(**Is my O's fanhood in jeopardy if I'm more excited for the Grayson experience than the Adley rush?**)
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Imagine a league where it's normal for small/mid-market teams to actually have a competitive chance heading into every season... Where the best players available still get a contract because they will help a team win. The NFL has that courtesy of a salary cap.
Factions on both sides have torpedoed the game with their short-term view.
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15 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Some interesting data here in all of the tweets.
What does "SD +/-" (the last column) represent? Standard deviation?
It's progress. But figures that other AL East teams progressed further...
The Athletic trade discussions- Mancini
in Orioles Talk
Posted
This is a fair expectation. No reason to expect a top tier prospect in return. Mancini's salary is the big issue. If we would pay a significant chunk of his salary, then the return should open up a bit. Given our 2022 payroll, I would hope this is on the table.
However, it is odd seeing the potential NL DH-type market start to develop. Like the Padres signing Nomar Mazara, the Brewers signing Eric Thames, Cards thinking DeJong is their answer. Other than salary, Mancini and other trade candidates on other teams are upgrades over those.