btdart20
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Posts posted by btdart20
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19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Miami thinks they can contend this season. They are in the market for a top CFer and reportedly, Ketel Marte is in their sites (Os need to send them Mullins). They have a lot of young talent and must think they are ready to really contribute, especially since they are so deep in starting pitchers.
Hmm... I missed/disregarded those headlines...
Marlin revenues are around $100-150m. Really seems odd... Very slim chance they are legit bidders on a big bat in FA. Maybe one of the second/third tier FA bats. (Feels like the DH would put a team like the Marlins even more behind the competitive curve...)
Seeing the Reynolds/Mullins/Marte chatter now.
I'll take Perez+ or Cabrera+ for Mullins. No real interest in Sixto or Luzardo if they are shopping them.
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35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I actually think he's likely to have an outlier season at that level.
It won't be a level he can maintain.
That's true of anyone. Put your vote in the pole.
3 hours ago, Frobby said:Ryan Mountcastle is today’s subject.
Frobby - you voting too?
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MIA does not seem like they would be buyers. Even with the DH. Their organization goals would be very similar to the O's by targeting windows of competitiveness and stockpiling minor league talent. Can't see them trading away any type of prospect off-season (maybe mid-season if they are in the hunt). Especially with the defending WS champs (ATL), the 3rd highest payroll (NYM), and throw in PHI for good measure of teams MIA needs to measure up with.
SD, MIL, and SF currently seem like teams who could use an extra 1B/OF/DH type bat in the NL. Maybe STL, PHI, LAD (injury depth).
Some potential AL suitors: DET, SEA, TB?, and can always count on NYY being buyers.
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51 minutes ago, wildcard said:
I added up to the rankings....
Here are the ranking:
- Rutschman -9 top 2 have 9 rankers
- Grayson - 18
- Hall - 3,3,3,3, 3, 3, 5,5 = 28 3-5 have 8 rankers
- Cowser - 3, 4, 4, 4,5, 5,5, 6= 36
- Henderson - 4.4.4.4.4,5,5, 6= 36
- Mayo - 3, 6,6,6,7 11, 11= 50 6- 10 have 7 scores *I added 11s to fill out scores
- Westburg - 5,7, 7, 7, 8,9,11 =54
- Kjerstad - 8.8,8, 9,9, 10, 11 = 63
- Stowers- 8,8,9, 10, 10, 11.11= 67
- Bradish - 7,8,9,9, 10,17,11 = 71
- Vavra - 10, 11, 12,12, 13, 20 = 78 11-12 have 6 rankers
- Rom - 10, 11, 15 15,17, 19 = 87
- Norby - 10, 11, 11,13,13 - 58 13-19 have 5 rankers
14 Baumann - 11, 12, 13, 18, 22 = 76
15 Baumler - 15, 16, 16, 18 , 28 = 93
16 Ortiz - 18, 19, 21, 21, 23 = 102
17. Haskins - 14, 15, 19, 26, 29= 103
That's basically the rankings/tiers I came away with too. Though I bumped Mayo up to the Hall/Cowser/Henderson tier (or can make a Mayo/Westburg tier).
I bunched Norby/Vavra/Rom/Baumann. Which feels right regarding their upside anyway.
Once you get past that point, there's some pretty big variances. And some old data issue. Basallo, Trimble, Pinto...
It's a good snapshot though.
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2020 was inflated with a high Babip and a BB/K ratio much better than his minor league track record.
Mounty definitely enjoyed hitting at OPACY in 2021 (but who doesn't?). .871 OPS at home vs. .713 OPS on the road. He had two really strong months (June - 1.016 OPS and August - 1.183 OPS). The highest OPS for the other months was .748. His second half was better from a plate discipline perspective. 20 BB in 328 PA in the first half vs. 21 BB in 258 PA in the second half. He also traded doubles for HR in the second half (but skimming through the game log seems to be more away games at hitter's parks).
Barrel% almost doubled to 11.8% compared to 6.1% in 2020. EV, LA, HardHit% are all league average or better. Increased K% and 9% increase in Pull% indicates a shift in approach. The changeup got him more in 2021, so he's probably keying in on FBs for power.
He'll be 25. If he can take a step forward lowering his chase rate, then he could be a big contributor. I think he can improve on last year's numbers.
I'll go with the .810-.839 range with a chance for more. Of the 2021 roster, I think Mounty's bat has the most upside.
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32 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Hays is a 3+ WAR player when healthy. He is either a starter or traded.
In 2021 he was a 3+ WAR player. If he maintains that performance, agreed.
Really just pointing out his comparative weakness facing righties vs. his strength against lefties more so than suggesting he should be platooned.
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2 hours ago, waroriole said:
It’s hard to argue against the player’s perspective when salaries have gone down while revenues increased.
Revenues are up because 2020 was not open to the public for the most part. Owners don't make long term commitments on short-term data. I'm not sure what the long-term data trends are, but anecdotally, less and less of my friends (and their kids) are into baseball these days.
Salaries - Here's the list of >$10m/year contracts: Bauer (LAD), Bradley Jr. (MIL), Brantley (HOU), Cruz (MIN), Gausman (SF), Gregorius (PHI), Hand (WAS), Hendriks (CHW), Kluber NYY), LeMahieu (NYY), McCann (NYM), Morton (ATL), Ozuna (ATL), Realmuto (PHI), Richards (BOS), Rosenthal (OAK), Schwarber (WAS), Semien (TOR), Simmons (MIN), Smyly (ATL), Springer (TOR), Stroman (NYM), and Turner (LAD).
In short, the FA class was sketchy at best. 5-6 of these signed on what they did years ago. In today's CBA, only the big market teams (or those who are close to competing) are willing to sit at the table for the big named talent. Without a hard salary cap, there is no parity. Without parity, there is no hope for competing unless you're in a developmental "window". Less seats at the table, means less bidding on your services.
The next tier is Molina ($9m), Wong, Minor, Treinen, Santana, Paxton, Happ, Ray, Wainwright, Rosario, Quintana, Odorizzi, May, Taijuan, Kike Hernandes, Pederson, Yuli Gurriel, Profar, Eaton, and Kim ($7m). Most of those either resigned with their teams (for PR as much as talent) or went to a contender/quasi-contender. Similar supply/demand issues apply here if only contenders and their own teams are bidding on your services.
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I bet Hays is really impacted by the LF wall. His career home OPS is .798. Career road OPS is .726 and was .693 in 2021.
If the O's are trying to squeeze out some wins, I can see him being the weak side of a platoon. His OPS against lefties .817. Against righties is .729. His defense is solid, so not sure that will happen. That's the only path I see to a higher OPS.
.730-.759 range.
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Thanks for posting this! Any way to clean up the column alignment?
Tony is the only one with Norby in the top 10 (though most have him in the top 13). Bradish is the statistical outlier for the top talent (that's also where the deviation really starts). Tony has him ranked 17 while everyone else has Bradish in the 7-10 range. The rest of his top 10 names are consensus. Only two other names show in the top 10 (Vavra and Rom).
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Depends on which ball the MLB uses?! 2021 first half OPS was .921. Second half was .822.
He's tough because we really only have 1 year of facing both righty/lefty as a left-handed hitter. (Makes me wonder if more players should drop switch-hitting...) As a 40+% pull hitter (and all of his HR to the right side), no impact by the LF wall changes.
2021 -
SLG - .518 and xSLG - .448
BA - .291 and xBA - .272
BB% - up to 8.7 (from 5.2)
His EV, Hardhit% is about league average. Better than average K%. Good speed, the lefty bat, and OPACY RF wall is a good recipe for doubles/triples. He's 27.
Feels like some downside from .878. I think it'll be around .820ish with a chance for more.
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I think Santander can be around what he did in 2020. He's 27 which is typically peak performance. EV and HardHit% both increased in 2021. LA at 18 which is good. The biggest change seems to be significantly more grounders and less line drives. Low BB rates will limit the OPS upside. And the LF wall movement is downside unknown. I don’t think he’ll get back to his K% and BB% rates of 2020. So his OPS upside is limited with the lack of walks. He has historically carried a low Babip. But his xBA the last two years haven't followed. There's a few pieces to the OPS.
2019 Babip was .285 with a .261 BA (xBA of .260)
2020 Babip was .248 with a .261 BA (xBA of .287)
2021 Babip was .275 with a .241 BA (xBA of .269)
I voted before really looking at the numbers…
.775 is very likely even with LF wall changes. Breaking .800 is a reachable with a little luck. I voted with my orange shades on.
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I don't see them going underslot at 1.1. I can't point to track record of the previous few years, but I can point to industry analysts see a marked improvement in the O's system over the last few years. Yes, the system could use more depth (i.e. justification for underslot). But with 1.1, I think they go best talent and write the big check. With probably less than $40m payroll and the fan base needing a shot in the system, I think they go for whoever they see as the best player.
Feels like there are three names consistently floated in the top 5 (Johnson, Jones, Green) in various mocks. And a handful of other names who get in there as well.
Johnson or Jones for me. Hard to pass on am 80 grade hit tool (assuming Elias sees it as an 80 as well) in Johnson. Think I would go Johnson and peddle to the metal offense. But I think Elias goes Jones for the full package. Hard to say one has a safer floor than the other, but Jones' defense and speed doesn't hurt his chances. Neither does his lineage.
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The DL Hall write up doesn't seem to match the FV score. Guess he's adding in some injury risk to the final score.
I would rank higher risk guys (like Bautista) above guys with lower ceiling, bench/utility players (like Joseph Ortiz).
Universal DH likely?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
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Does $150+m ($200-250m?) move them out of the bottom 5 in total revenues? Or at least into a place to compete for higher priced FA bats?